Predicting the Roster for the Las Vegas Expansion Team in 2017-18
This really did happen. This was not some hallucinogenic acid trip put in literary form from the archives of Hunter S. Thompson or anything.
Las Vegas really will have an NHL team starting in the fall of 2017. Still seems hard to fathom. though, right? Las Vegas-hockey, Las Vegas-hockey...the word associations still don't go together too easily. But it's a done deal, and the expansion draft is right around the...oh yeah, it's still a little less than a year away from happening.
So that gives us plenty of time to put together my projected initial Vegas team roster. This is going to be fun. The team still does not have an official name yet, though principal owner Bill Foley has publicly stated he's partial to Black Knights, to honor his U.S. Military Academy background.
I'd call them the Sin City Gamblers myself, but, as the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported, the NHL does not want the nickname to have any easy word association tied to gambling. Because people would be just too traumatized if they associated a Las Vegas team with any aspect of gambling, right?
Anyway, the following slideshow represents my picks for the first Vegas team, but first a few main expansion draft rules, the full version of which can be found here:
- Each of the other 30 NHL teams must lose one player from their rosters after this coming season to the Las Vegas expansion squad. Your favorite team WILL lose a player to Vegas.
- Clubs can choose to exempt from the draft either seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender, or eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goalie. (Maybe your team thinks all its defensemen stink and is OK with exposing all of them in favor of protecting eight forwards, or vice versa).
- All players who have "No Movement" clauses at the time of the Expansion Draft (and who decline to waive such clauses) must be protected (and will be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits).
- All first- and second-year professionals at the time of the draft, as well as all unsigned draft choices, are exempt.
- The Las Vegas team must select the following minimum number of players at each position: 14 forwards, nine defensemen and three goaltenders.
- The expansion draft will take place on June 20, 2017. Teams must submit their protected lists by June 17, 2017.
- The Vegas team will be subject to the same salary-cap rules as every other team, which means spending to at least the cap floor, which for this coming season will be $54 million. This is the first time in league history an expansion team will face such a spending decree. No more like the old days, of paying kids and washed-up veterans next to nothing and selling out the first three or four years anyway because of the honeymoon effect. The league wants a competitive Vegas team right off the hop, so keep that in mind when you see some players in the coming slides with seemingly outlandish salaries for an expansion team.
Taking those rules and other factors into account, which we'll address with each individual player, these are my picks for the Las Vegas Whatchmacallits:
First-Line Left Wing: Andrew Cogliano, Anaheim Ducks
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Player: Andrew Cogliano
Age: 29
Contract situation: Two years left at $3 million cap hit
Why he may be saying "Vegas Baby!" next year
The Anaheim Ducks have a lot of tough choices ahead with their roster. They are one of the teams most likely to lose a player they really don't want to lose, and Cogliano is a leading candidate to be sacrificed.
First off, the Ducks, according to General Fanager, have four players who must be protected because of existing no-movement clauses: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler and Kevin Bieksa. General manager Bob Murray probably regrets giving the defenseman Bieksa that no-move clause; He's 35, signed for two more years at $4 million and clearly on the downside.
The Ducks have to protect those four and can't let younger, talented guys such as Jakob Silfverberg, Rickard Rakell, Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler and Hampus Lindholm become exposed. Along with the other four, that's nine skaters right there, including four defensemen. That doesn't include other players such as Simon Despres and Ryan Garbutt.
A guy like Cogliano, the NHL's reigning ironman at 704 consecutive games, probably will need to be exposed. Cogliano is good for 30-40 points a year and is a good defensive forward. He had a solid 53 Corsi for percentage at even strength, tied for fourth on the team.
First-Line Center: Eric Staal, Minnesota Wild
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Player: Eric Staal
Age: 31
Contract situation: Three years remaining at $3.5 million cap hit.
Why he may be saying "Vegas Baby!" next year
Looking over the current Minnesota Wild roster, I just don't see how Staal can be either one of seven forwards protected, should the Wild choose to protect only three D-men, or how he is one of the eight skaters if Minnesota wants to protect at least four D-men. He's likely to be exposed, and why not grab him if you're Vegas?
He could help sell some tickets (though it appears most of them are already sold for the first season anyway), and he'd only be 32 by next summer. He just signed a three-year deal with the Wild and no doubt would probably prefer to stay there instead of go play for an expansion team.
On the other hand, he'd get a ton of ice time again, and the fans would love him. How he performs this coming season in Minnesota will go a long way toward his value to either the Wild or, potentially, Vegas. But Minnesota has too many other guys it can't afford to expose.
First-line center is where the Vegas team will have the toughest time finding anyone under 30 with any real talent. Teams just aren't going to expose top players at this crucial position. So a guy such as Staal is what they're mostly likely to put out there as a No. 1 pivot. They could do worse.
First-Line Right Wing: Dustin Brown, Los Angeles Kings
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Player: Dustin Brown
Age: 31
Contract situation: Five years left on deal with $5.875 million cap hit.
Why he may be saying "Vegas Baby!" next year
According to General Fanager, the now-former Los Angeles Kings captain does not have a no-movement clause, so he and his mammoth contract can be exposed. Kings GM Dean Lombardi doesn't hand such clauses out too freely, as Anze Kopitar is the only one on the current roster who has one.
Brown's personal numbers have deteriorated sharply the last two years, with only 11 goals each and a combined minus-22. He lost the captaincy to Kopitar recently and didn't seem too happy about it, telling reporters on a conference call (via USA Today) "I'm not going to say it's rosy" when asked his feelings toward management.
Brown's contract makes him difficult to trade, which means Vegas is the perfect place to offload him. No way he'll be on the Kings' protected list, even if he has a bounce-back season before the expansion draft. Why should Vegas take on that huge contract too?
Well, keep in mind Vegas will have to spend to the cap floor too, which for the 2016-17 season is $54 million. Vegas is going to have to overpay on some guys, probably to hit that floor. Besides, Brown could become a huge fan favorite in Vegas. It's only a four-hour drive from L.A., so plenty of Kings fans figure to come to their games, and the Vegas-L.A. rivalry could quickly become one of the fiercest in the league.
You know Brown will want to get his shots in against any and all Kings players if he switches sides. And, hey, the guy has won two Stanley Cups as a captain, and it's not like his skills have completely eroded.
I see Brown as the king of the Vegas Strip at some point.
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First-Pair Defense: Jason Garrison, Tampa Bay Lightning
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Player: Jason Garrison
Age: 31
Contract situation: Two years remaining with a $4.6 million cap hit.
Why he may be saying "Vegas Baby!" next year
The one team guaranteed to lose a player it really doesn't want to is probably the Tampa Bay Lightning. It is really hard trying to come up with a protected list for this season, especially after the recent re-signing of Steven Stamkos.
The Bolts have three forwards (Stamkos, Valtteri Filppula and Ryan Callahan) with no-move clauses and time on their contracts left beyond this coming season and therefore must be protected. There are four other forwards who are must-protects (Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Jonathan Drouin and Nikita Kucherov).
That leaves Alex Killorn potentially exposed, but I expect the Lightning to trade him away at some point before next summer. So with the maximum seven forwards protected and my Killorn trade prognostication, the three Lightning D-men that I say must be protected are Victor Hedman, Anton Stralman and Braydon Coburn. Yeah, you could protect Garrison over Coburn, in which case Coburn is the guy here in this slide.
The Lightning, if they don't trade him by then, probably would have to expose goalie Ben Bishop too, and Vegas would no doubt love to have him. But it's likely GM Steve Yzerman won't just let a premier asset like Bishop get away for nothing. Still, trading him figures to to be tough, as he can be UFA after this season and Vegas is unlikely to draft potential UFAs.
I think Coburn is the better player, the one more worthy of protection. So, Jason Garrison, say hello to Las Vegas. He's still a fairly effective D-man with a big slap shot.
First-Pair Defense: Jack Johnson, Columbus Blue Jackets
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Player: Jack Johnson
Age: 29
Contract situation: Two years remaining on contract with $4.35 million cap hit.
Why he may be saying "Vegas Baby!" next year
Columbus is another team that is caught between a rock and a hard place when it comes to expansion. The Blue Jackets are going to lose a good player, and Johnson is a leading candidate. Columbus can't leave D-men Seth Jones, David Savard and Ryan Murray unprotected (well, they can, but they definitely should not), and there are too many good forwards who need protection.
So that leaves Johnson likely to be out there, unless the Blue Jackets trade him first. While Johnson's game has slipped lately (just 14 points in 60 games last season, with a minus-14), he could really benefit in going to an expansion team. He'd get a ton of ice time, and maybe he could regain the stature he once had in this league, which was as a bona fide No. 1 defenseman.
Starting Goalie: Semyon Varlamov, Colorado Avalanche
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Player: Semyon Varlamov
Age: 28
Contract situation: Three years left on contract at a $5.9 million cap hit.
Why he may be saying "Vegas Baby!" next year
The Colorado Avalanche likely will have a tough choice on their hands next summer. The Avs have a promising young goalie in Calvin Pickard, who just signed a two-year contract last week. If he were to be exposed, Las Vegas almost surely would take him. The Avs don't want that to happen.
So I think they'll protect him and hope Varlamov's big contract dissuades Vegas from taking him. But I don't think they'd get that lucky. Varlamov is still relatively young and definitely has No. 1-caliber ability.
The Avs may try to trade Varlamov at some point this season so they don't have to worry about losing him for nothing, but it's just real tough to trade goalies with his kind of contract. With the guys the Avs figure to put on their protected list, Varlamov would be the most attractive player from the Colorado roster, and Vegas has to take someone. Losing Varlamov to expansion would be an easy solution if they wanted to free up his considerable cap space as is.
As with many teams and their goaltending situations, how well their starter and backup play this coming season could largely determine who they protect and who they expose. A huge year from Varlamov could mean Pickard is exposed. Until then, though, Varlamov might want to start looking at houses in the greater Las Vegas area, just in case.
Goaltending is where the Vegas team should get a really quality player, no matter what. Every team has to expose one, and the quality of player in the position today is miles ahead of the old days.
Second-Line Left Wing: Colin Wilson, Nashville Predators
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Player: Colin Wilson
Age: 26
Contract situation: Three years left at a $3.9 million cap hit.
Why he may be saying "Vegas Baby!" next year
The Nashville Predators are one of those teams that has to protect four defensemen. Well, things could change and they don't have to, but as of now they can't realistically think of exposing P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis. At forward, they need to protect Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, Craig Smith and James Neal—although goalie Pekka Rinne is the only Pred with a no-move clause.
That means a guy such as the talented Wilson might be exposed. He's coming off a poor season, though, with six goals and 24 points in 64 games, after scoring 20 goals the season before.
He'll be under a lot of pressure this season to perform. Otherwise, he could be calling Vegas home after that.
Second-Line Center: Eric Fehr, Pittsburgh Penguins
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Player: Eric Fehr
Age: 30
Contract situation: Two years remaining on deal with $2 million cap hit.
Why he may be saying "Vegas Baby!" next year
He does not have top-six offensive skill, with 97 goals in 509 career games. But as he showed with Pittsburgh this season, he's a great guy to have among your center men. He's a good defensive player and can play a physical game at both ends.
He's the kind of guy who would do well with more ice time on an expansion team, and the Penguins can only protect so many of their premium assets. Center is where the Vegas team is going to work hard to find good value, but Fehr would provide it.
Second-Line Right Wing: Jimmy Hayes, Boston Bruins
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Player: Jimmy Hayes
Age: 26
Contract situation: Two years remaining on deal with $2.3 million cap hit.
Why he may be saying "Vegas Baby!" next year
The Boston Bruins have four players with no-move clauses (David Krejci, David Backes, Zdeno Chara and Patrice Bergeron). So a lot of their protected list has already been made, barring any of them waiving them or being traded.
That means they likely will face a tough choice with the rest of their exemption list. With other forwards such as Brad Marchand, Matt Beleskey, David Pastrnak and Ryan Spooner probably warranting protection, Hayes could find himself exposed.
He's coming off a poor first season with Boston (13 goals, 29 points in 75 games), but if he's available, his age and potential would make for a tempting option for Vegas.
Second-Pair Defense: Alex Petrovic, Florida Panthers
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Player: Alex Petrovic
Age: 24
Contract situation: One year remaining on contract with $1.05 million cap hit.
Why he may be saying "Vegas Baby!" next year
The Florida Panthers have several quality D-men, and they can't protect them all. The way I've got it figured, they can't expose Jason Demers, Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle or the recently acquired Mark Pysyk. And there are some nice young forwards too.
So while it's more likely Petrovic might be dealt to get something for him, maybe the Panthers just say "Hey, let's play him all year and reassess when it's over." If he's available, the Vegans (wait, is that still a possible nickname?) should grab him. He isn't much to talk about offensively but projects well as at least a top-four D-man before too long.
He's young, has great size (6'4", 201 lbs) and played 66 games for Florida last season, finishing a strong plus-17.
Second Pair Defense: Thomas Hickey, New York Islanders
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Player: Thomas Hickey
Age: 27
Contract situation: Two years remaining on deal with $2.2 million cap hit.
Why he may be saying "Vegas Baby!" next year
The New York Islanders, no question about it, will lose a good player from their current roster. They may be forced to trade a guy such as Hickey, the fourth overall pick in the 2007 NHL draft by Los Angeles, but there's no way they can protect all their quality D-men and other forwards.
Hickey's career has not panned out as well as hoped, but he is a pretty good stay-at-home D-man, and he's still only 27. He would get the kind of ice time he wants on an expansion team, and he has the potential to still be a top-four guy.
Second Goaltender: Andrew Hammond, Ottawa Senators
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Player: Andrew Hammond
Age: 28
Contract situation: Two years left on deal with $1.35 million cap hit.
Why he may be saying "Vegas Baby!" next year
The Ottawa Senators have two goalies (Hammond and Craig Anderson) with two years left on their contracts. Anderson, at $4.2 million, is the better paid one and the one with a more proven history.
But Hammond has certainly shown he can get hot at the NHL level. He went 20-1-2 and achieved a .941 saves percentage for the Senators in 2014-15, after Anderson went down with an injury. His numbers have cooled off considerably since, but he would be a good gamble (sorry, I had to use this reference at least once) for the Vegas team.
Of course, if he has the better season for Ottawa, Anderson might be the one exposed. That's how it figures to be for goalies and expansion protection.
Players 13-30: Rounding Out the Rest of the Roster
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Under the rules of the expansion draft, the Las Vegas team must take one player from every team. We've listed two lines, two sets of defensive pairs and two goalies so far. That still leaves 18 players to be taken from the remaining teams, and here are the thumbnail sketches for each project pick:
13. Beau Bennett, New Jersey, RW: The 20th overall selection the 2010 draft, he never found a home in Pittsburgh. He has a chance to prove himself more in New Jersey. If he has a great year, he stays. If not, he's still got the "potential" tag to sell himself, and Vegas would do well to give it a try.
14. Jordan Martinook, Arizona, LW: A second-round pick of Arizona in 2012, he played 81 games for the team last season but probably doesn't make it as a protected player. None of Arizona's other available players are too appetizing, so Martinook gets the nod.
15. Jake McCabe, Buffalo, D: The Sabres have four other D-men they probably need to protect, and that leaves McCabe exposed. He played 77 games and was a plus-six for Buffalo last season.
16. Lance Bouma, Calgary, C: Injuries cut into his last season, but he posted 16 goals the one before that. He figures to be expendable on a Calgary roster with too many other promising young players.
17. Lee Stempniak, Carolina, RW: He's played for seemingly every team in the league so far, so why not Las Vegas? He had 51 points in 82 games last season, so he can still do things with the puck.
18. Trevor van Riemsdyk, Chicago, D: The Blackhawks have a league-high eight guys with no-move clauses, so TVR is likely to be exposed.
19. Antti Niemi, Dallas, G: The Stars have to protect either Niemi or Kari Lehtonen, and Niemi seems the more likely choice at this point. As we talked about before, the Vegas squad will get some good goalies.
20. Thomas Vanek, Detroit, LW: I say he has a good, comeback season with the Red Wings, but not good enough to warrant protection from expansion. Let him go to Vegas and let him fire away. Somehow, I see this working well.
21. Benoit Pouliot, Edmonton, LW: He's got three years left on his deal, at a $4 million cap hit. He's not worth that much, not at all. But he may be the best choice among the Oilers' list of available players by next summer.
22. Mark Barberio, Montreal, D: The Canadiens will probably hope Vegas takes aging Tomas Plekanec and his $6 million cap hit for 2017-18 off their hands, but that's just wishful thinking. More likely is a guy like Barberio, a 26-year-old with two years left on a $750,000 cap hit, being tabbed.
23. Nick Holden, NY Rangers, D: He had a very good 2013-14 season with Colorado, but he saw his play slip after that. Still, he could be worth a risk as a big, fairly mobile D-man.
24. Dale Weise, Philadelphia, RW: He just signed as a free agent with the Flyers, but that does not mean he has any guarantee of employment with them beyond this coming season. He'd be a nice depth forward on an expansion team, just like he is for any other team.
25. Paul Martin, San Jose, D: He has a very good first season with the Sharks, helping them get to the Cup Final. But he'll be 36 next summer, with a $4.85 million cap hit for two more seasons. That might scare Vegas off, but you always want veteran D-men on an otherwise young team.
26. Kyle Brodziak, St. Louis, C: He'll be 33 next summer, but he's an experienced center who has played on many playoff teams. His leadership would be of value on a first-year team.
27. Jared Cowen, Toronto, D: There won't be a lot of quality to choose from on the Toronto unprotected list, so Cowen is an attempt to make the best of a bad situation. He's a big, banging D-man who would give Vegas some toughness on the back end.
28. Luca Sbisa, Vancouver, D: He plays a steady, stay-at-home game. On my expansion team, I want a lot of experienced D-men, and the eight-year veteran Sbisa fills the bill.
29. Dmitry Orlov, Washington, D: The Caps will have some tough choices with their protection list. They probably will expose Brooks Orpik, but Vegas would do well to stay away. Orlov probably can't crack the protected list either, and he's the far better choice as a D-man.
30. Mark Stuart, Winnipeg, D: The Jets have three other D-men they should protect (Jacob Trouba, Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers), which leaves a pretty good player in Stuart available. He would be a fine 5th or 6th D man on an expansion club.
All contract information taken from General Fanager.
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