French Open 2016 Women's Final: Williams vs. Muguruza Preview, Predictions

After a wild fortnight of weather interruptions, disgruntled players and more than a few upsets, the 2016 French Open women’s final on Saturday will be an A-quality blockbuster. It doesn’t get any better than Serena Williams vs. Garbine Muguruza.

Nobody has been able to rival Serena’s dominance in recent years, but the 22-year-old Muguruza is the closest thing to an up-and-coming rival who is big enough to compete with the aging American legend. It promises to be a hard-hitting test of groundstrokes and mental toughness, and both athletes are built to play aggressive tennis.

There’s plenty of intrigue for tennis fans all over the globe, as the past looks to hold off the future. Will Serena continue her historical dominance and tie Steffi Graf with 22 career majors, or will Muguruza get her breakthrough title and bounce ahead of the other young, aspiring stars?

Who Has the Historical Edge?

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Since Justine Henin’s prime years, nobody has had any kind of rivalry edge over Serena Williams. Thus far, Serena has won three of the four head-to-head meetings with Muguruza, and all have been on major stages.

• 2013 Australian Open: Serena drubbed the teenage Muguruza 6-2, 6-0 in the second round.
• 2014 French Open: This was Muguruza’s most impressive victory, a 6-2, 6-2 rout of Serena in the second round. It was the Spaniard’s introduction to most of the sports world and the launching pad to her progress as a top-10 star.
• 2015 Australian Open: Serena won a tough three-setter, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the fourth round on her way to the Australian Open title.
• 2015 Wimbledon: Serena won the Wimbledon final over Muguruza 6-4, 6-4. The Spaniard had proved she could be a major contender, but there was a noticeable gap in experience and being a champion. Serena had her own kind of pressure in getting her second “Serena Slam” and keeping alive her bid for the calendar Grand Slam.

Serena has been the standard, but Muguruza is closing the gap. The Spaniard will have her fifth opportunity to take on the American at a major, and the pressures of battling at majors will help her to come in with less awe and greater expectations to seize her own major title.

Muguruza at 2016 French Open

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As often happens, the first round can be tricky for stars. Muguruza dropped her first set against Anna Karolina Schmiedlova but rallied to win 3-6, 6-3, 6-3. It would be the only set she dropped in the tournament thus far, while stars such as Victoria Azarenka, Angelique Kerber, Simona Halep and Agnieszka Radwanska were quickly eliminated or undone by wet weather and lackluster play.

Muguruza’s competition has not been too stiff, since her best win was over No. 13 Svetlana Kuznetsova. But that’s what stars do: They take care of business.

She made short work of veteran star Samantha Stosur in the semifinals with powerful groundstrokes and plenty of pressure with her improved return game. Stosur illustrated her helplessness with 20 unforced errors and 22 forced errors, according to the Sydney Morning Herald.

Muguruza should have plenty of strength and energy to take on Serena, and her confidence should be high after continuing to dictate her victories.

Williams at 2016 French Open

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The expectations are so high for Serena that anything less than total domination can get tennis fans wondering if something is wrong. She won her first six matches, but it wasn't always smooth. But that’s often been Serena’s pattern over the years. Survive a tricky scare or two and then roll her rivals in the final weekend.

After posting two easy victories, losing only five of the 29 games, Serena had to outlast No. 26 seed Kristina Mladenovic with a 12-10 second-set tiebreaker. But just as Serena looked vulnerable, she destroyed a fine young player in Elina Svitolina who had extended her to three tough sets in the Australian Open. This time she fed Svitolina a pair of breadsticks.

The quarterfinals proved to be her biggest test of wills. Serena lost the first set to Yulia Putintseva and was floundering against high, looping shots, which often turned into unforced errors. She was dangerously close to losing the second set, but she regained her toughness and fought her way out of her malaise. Thereafter, she cruised to victory.

The semifinal match was more of the same in the first set. Serena used a lot of drop shots to take advantage of Kiki Berten’s injured left calf, but she also had a hard time establishing her rhythm. She won the tiebreaker and the match, but coach Patrick Mouratoglou warned that “if (she) plays like this, she's not going to win. So I don't expect her to play that level tomorrow (in the final),” per ESPN.com. 

The good news is that Serena has continued to do what she does best: win. She is the favorite, but she will need to play her best match in the final.

The Biggest X-Factor

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How much has Muguruza’s 2014 French Open victory inspired both players? Since that crushing 6-2, 6-2 defeat, Serena has won 47 of 50 matches in majors.

Serena admitted that the match has stuck with her. "I learned so much from that match. I hate to lose, but when I do, I hope it was worth it," she said, per ESPN.com. "That match was definitely one of those that was kind of needed and worth it."

Obviously, the victory was a huge boost for the young Muguruza. Her coach Sam Sumyk tried to downplay it, but at the same time he admitted it was important, according to ESPN.com: "It was 250 years ago, so nothing to think about, really. But it's always nice to have [in] the back of your mind that you beat Serena already.”

So Serena is not going to take Muguruza lightly, and the way she lost could well provide the extra caution and motivation to play with more vigor and purpose. She’s already been the mentally toughest player in women’s tennis, but these little battles of the past can only help her when she has lacked a true rival.

Muguruza has to feel this is her time; she’s paid her dues in losing to Serena in the Wimbledon final last year, and she has proved she can beat Serena at Roland Garros.

Well into the first set or later, either or both players will need to call upon their reserves of mental strength, and it starts with past successes and failures.

Muguruza Will Win French Open Title If...

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Muguruza must continue to dictate the play. Unlike most players who upset Serena, Muguruza has the power and athleticism to hit through the American.

"She and I are players who like dictating the game," Muguruza said about herself and Serena, per ESPN.com. "There will be moments when she'll be dominating, and maybe at times I will be dominating. I think I can be a tough opponent, too."

Don't underestimate Muguruza's confidence in going after Serena. She will need this self-belief as much as she needs to groove big topspin and power. She must play her game and execute cleanly. It's likely both players will duel back and forth with winners, but it might be more important that Muguruza stay away from unforced errors. If she presses or shows impatience, it could be her undoing.

The other important key will be her return off Serena's serve. It's the greatest challenge in women's tennis, and she's going to need to capitalize on break-point opportunities.

Finally, Muguruza has grown up on clay. It's part of her Spanish heritage, and she moves exceptionally well for a tall player (6'0") with lots of power. Clay should be her advantage over Serena, not just in mitigating the American's power a bit, but in demonstrating she has the younger, fresher legs. She also appears to have handled the wet conditions a little better. She should prepare to be aggressive as usual but also to be confident that she will win the longer rallies.

If she excels in these areas, Muguruza will win the French Open championship.

Williams Will Win French Open If...

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How will Serena deal with playing four consecutive days? That’s a tall order for anyone, and even Serena’s superpowers will have to dig deep into her 34-year-old body. We’re also not quite sure if Serena is really 100 percent. She’s moved slower against lesser players, and this can be explained in part with the wet red clay bogging up conditions, but it’s been harder for her to get easy points or to hit through the court.

For Serena to defeat Muguruza, she has to have a big serving day, find the zone with her powerful groundstrokes and not let the Spaniard into the match. If she is stretched to an exhausting third set, she might not have the legs to finish, given all the match play of four straight days.

The other key is that Serena needs to dictate with her talent and experience. Will she break out early and send a message that it will be her day? If she gets down a break midway in the first set, it could signal a dogfight, and she might find it hard to keep up. Big points late in sets will be crucial for Serena if she is to break open a tight match.

Prediction

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If this was grass or hard courts, Serena would be a strong favorite. If there was more time off and Serena was fresher, she would be a safer pick against the more inexperienced Muguruza.

As it stands, the French Open final is on red clay after a furious effort to get this tournament finished on schedule. The wet conditions have dampened Serena’s game a bit, and since the U.S. Open she might not have as much of that fear factor for the younger players who are swarming like sharks.

But this is still Serena, and if it seems like a coin toss, there are more than enough reasons to explain her 21 major titles. She has many ways to win matches, and nobody has a more imposing and intimidating game. Twenty years from now, Serena’s skills and style will still be ahead of what that era produces.

So although Muguruza seems ready to go out and seize the championship, and she very well could, once Serena makes it this far, she has the talent and mentality to lift her game. It’s a more daunting task than it was going into the Australian Open final against Angelique Kerber. But this is also why Serena will be focused and ready to win.

Why wait for Wimbledon? Playing against some of the toughest conditions in a quest for another major, Serena will manage to get that 22nd major in two tight sets.