Sharks vs. Penguins: Expert Predictions for 2016 Stanley Cup Final
After six long weeks of hard-hitting, lightning-fast action and loads of drama in the 2016 NHL playoffs, we've arrived at the Stanley Cup Final. And rest assured, the next two weeks will produce even more drama and countless storylines.
For the San Jose Sharks, the trip to the finals—the first in the franchise's 24-year history—is a culmination of sorts. Widely regarded as one of the better teams in the league over the last decade, the Sharks have never been able to get over the hump and alleviate playoff failure after failure.
The Pittsburgh Penguins, on the other hand, have been one of the league's standard-bearers over the last quarter-century, winning three Stanley Cups, including the first of consecutive wins in 1991, the year the Sharks were founded. They also reached the Stanley Cup Final two other times over that span.
Each team is chock-full of stars as well. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are seeking their second Cup win. Meanwhile, Phil Kessel's nine goals and 18 points in 18 postseason games have proved his many detractors dead wrong.
The Sharks feature the league's top playoff goal scorer in Joe Pavelski (13 in 18 games) and top point earner in Logan Couture (24 in 18 games), as well as Joe Thornton, who is looking to cap off his Hall of Fame career with hockey's ultimate prize.
So what gives in this series full of intrigue? Will Crosby and Malkin further add to their legacies with another Cup win? Will the Sharks finally get the giant monkey off of the backs of the players, the franchise and the city?
The answers to these questions and more await, and to help us answer them, we have Bleacher Report's panel of hockey experts—lead writer Adrian Dater, national columnists Jonathan Willis and Steve Macfarlane and senior editor Jake Leonard.
Each will offer predictions on who wins, the series' biggest X-factors and how we'll ultimately remember this Sharks-Penguins matchup.
Adrian Dater, NHL Lead Writer
1 of 4
Who wins? In how many games?
San Jose in seven. The Sharks were the best road team in the NHL in the regular season and won a huge rubber Game 5 of the Western final on the road. So what better way to close out the season than with a win on Pittsburgh home ice?
The Conn Smythe winner will be...
Joe Pavelski, Sharks. He showed what a clutch player he is in Games 5 and 6 of the Western final, scoring the tying goal late in the second period of Game 5 and the first goal of Game 6.
The series' biggest X-factor will be...
San Jose's power play. The Sharks were 22.5 percent on the PP in the regular season, the Penguins 18.4. In the playoffs, the Sharks are at 27 percent, the Penguins 23.4. Not a huge difference, but if things keep staying the same, that slight difference could be the deciding factor in the end.
What will we remember most about this Stanley Cup Final?
We'll remember Joe Thornton skating the Cup around in that great big, red and gray beard. We'll adopt him as the sentimental favorite, the good guy who finally finished first.
Whose legacy will be impacted the most?
It took Sidney Crosby seven years to get back to the Cup Final. If the Pens lose, he'll still have only one ring since joining the league in 2005. "Only" is a relative word, as many never get that far. But to go down as one of the greatest ever, he probably needs at least two rings.
Jonathan Willis, National NHL Writer
2 of 4
Who wins? In how many games?
San Jose, seven games. This series is close to being a coin flip for me, but the Sharks are the best puck-possession team Pittsburgh has yet faced. I'd say the odds are something like 54/46 in favour of San Jose.
The Conn Smythe winner will be...
It's still up in the air on the San Jose side. Joe Pavelski is probably the front-runner for the Sharks at this point, but Brent Burns and Logan Couture will absolutely be in the mix. Joe Thornton will be the sentimental favourite, but it's hard to imagine him making up much ground on Pavelski in the Final given how often they play together. Marc-Edouard Vlasic should get more consideration than he actually will.
If Pittsburgh wins, Phil Kessel is at the top of the list, with either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin having the chance to pass him in the Final.
The series' biggest X-factor will be...
San Jose's third defense pairing. I'm not worried at all about Vlasic and Justin Braun, and Burns/Paul Martin is a good, solid duo, with all four above a 53 percent Fenwick rating in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Brenden Dillon is getting outshot by a 3-2 ratio when he's on the ice. The Penguins have made noise all postseason in large part because of their scoring depth, with the HBK trio nominally the team's third line, and the fourth unit dangerous, too.
If Sharks head coach Peter DeBoer can hide his third pair, like Chicago did last spring, the Sharks should be okay; if his counterpart Mike Sullivan can get dangerous lines out against it, then San Jose will be in trouble.
What will we remember most about this Stanley Cup Final?
We'll remember it as San Jose's first Cup, the year the team that was good but not great for so long finally recognized its potential.
Whose legacy will be impacted the most?
In a Sharks win, Joe Thornton is the obvious guy, and to a lesser extent Patrick Marleau. This would be the exclamation point on a Hall of Fame career by the former. Burns and Vlasic will also in all likelihood start getting more attention. It's already started for Burns, but it will make it easier to nominate those guys for major awards in the years that follow, thanks to the reflected glow of a 2016 Cup win.
In a Pittsburgh win, the "Jonathan Toews>Sidney Crosby" people will mercifully go away for a while, while Kessel will finally start getting the credit he deserves. Matt Murray, too, will get a big boost, though coming this early it's more difficult to say that this win will define him. I think Kris Letang has opened a lot of eyes, win or lose.
Steve Macfarlane, National NHL Writer
3 of 4
Who wins? In how many games?
San Jose in seven. Both of these teams have star power. Although Pittsburgh seems like it has more of it on paper, the Sharks may have more chemistry as a group and the motivation to win for veterans like Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau. On top of the intangibles, the Sharks also own the better defensive group. Neither goalie has much experience, but both should be stable enough to make this a long series.
The Conn Smythe winner will be...
Joe Pavelski. The Sharks captain is the league's goal-scoring leader and has had a knack for making them all count. Four of his 13 goals have been game-winners. The small-statured but feisty Little Joe plays a big game, and that rubs off on everybody around him. He gets the nod over The Bearded Ones—this spring's best defenseman in Brent Burns and likely fan favorite Joe Thornton.
The series' biggest X-factor will be...
A lot will depend on the play of two young and inexperienced goaltenders who have performed very well through three rounds. San Jose's Martin Jones is more veteran at 26 but had just two playoff appearances before this season. Matt Murray has been a revelation as a 22-year-old rookie who has played more postseason contests than regular-season games. If either of these guys gets rattled, things could go off the rails quickly.
What will we remember most about this Stanley Cup Final?
The Sharks overcoming a long-standing reputation for failure in the playoffs and Thornton winning his first Stanley Cup in his first appearance in the Final series at the age of 36. It may not have the same draw as Raymond Bourque finally getting to hoist the Cup overhead, but Thornton has been a great player for a long time, and seeing him and fellow veteran Marleau win a championship will be a great outcome that tugs on some heartstrings.
Whose legacy will be impacted the most?
Thornton has long been an underrated player and considered the kind of guy who lacks the sort of passion needed to be a winner in the playoffs. He's already gone a long way this spring toward proving he's someone who can be relied upon in any area of the ice and that, despite his lackadaisical nature, he is all business when it comes to hockey. Thornton's first Stanley Cup at the age of 36 will cement his legacy as a surefire Hall of Famer who can lead.
Jake Leonard, Senior Editor
4 of 4
Who wins? In how many games?
San Jose in six. Until the East proves different, the winner of the West has to be considered the favorite. Case in point: The Sharks have already beaten the Los Angeles Kings, Nashville Predators and St. Louis Blues in these playoffs. So Pittsburgh is fourth in my power rankings of teams they will have played.
The Conn Smythe winner will be...
Joe Pavelski. He has a good chance at being the postseason leader for goals and points, but that's not even the best case to be made for him. The best case is that he's provided a great narrative, and it's writers who vote for this award. Pavelski's first year as the Sharks captain being the year the team sheds its "chokers" label is something I'd expect a lot of coverage on during the Final (culminating in the MVP).
The series' biggest X-factor will be...
Evgeni Malkin. The Sharks have proved that they can knock out a team's top two scoring lines (which is the number most good teams have). What makes these Penguins unique is that they are rolling three lines with elite scoring talent—or at least they have in the playoffs—using Sidney Crosby on one, Phil Kessel on another and Evgeni Malkin on a third.
The only thing limiting the upside of that configuration is that Malkin hasn't been a consistent game-changer since returning from a late-season upper-body injury. He has just two multipoint efforts in 17 games since returning from the injury (for comparison: he had seven in the 17 prior to the injury). Aside from a two-assist showing in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Final, you have to go all the way back to his two-goal, two-assist performance in a 5-0 win in Game 3 of the first round. More games like that could turn this series.
What will we remember most about this Stanley Cup Final?
Joe Thornton raising the Cup. He's a smart bet to be the first player Pavelski hands the Cup to, and that awful beard he's sporting will ensure that it's an image we remember.
Whose legacy will be impacted the most?
Thornton's. He already should be considered his generation's best forward, but a Stanley Cup ring would make sure any fans or media members who knock him as a "playoff choker" realize it. Thornton is, at the very least, the best forward to enter the NHL between 1990 (Jaromir Jagr) and 2004 (Alex Ovechkin). He is already a ho-hum Hall of Famer. A Cup win makes him a legend.
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