Will Someone Besides Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal Win the 2016 Rome Masters?

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are the definition of “dynasty” as they prepare to take on the best of the ATP at the 2016 Rome Masters. The past 11 years has witnessed clay-king Nadal and his seven Italian Open titles set the standard for current world No. 1 Djokovic and his four titles.

It was a different world in 2004, the last time someone other than Nadal or Djokovic won in Rome. Facebook had been launched in February, Twitter did not exist and online sports streaming and media existed mostly as clunky digital newspapers.

The Rome winner that year was Mallorcan Carlos Moya, the 1998 French Open champion, who was winding down his career. Few people realized that his Mallorcan counterpart Nadal was just beginning to make ripples after an unnoticed win over Roger Federer in Miami weeks before. Unfortunately the 17-year-old Spaniard was sitting out Rome and the French Open with a stress fracture in his left ankle.

The rest is history, which continues to live and breathe with the indomitable Djokovic and resilient Nadal.

Who’s going to beat them?

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Best Bets to Dethrone the Kings

Start the list with Andy Murray. The Scot has continued to dig in on clay, and he defeated Nadal in straight sets this past weekend at Madrid. He fell to Djokovic in three tough sets in the final, so if there is any slippage from the dynastic duo, Murray is ready and hungry.

Additionally, Murray is in the softer bottom of the draw and will not have to face players like Roger Federer, Dominic Thiem, Nick Kyrgios or Milos Raonic. Murray would only face Nadal or Djokovic in the final and not have to play them on back-to-back days like at Madrid.

Otherwise, it remains up to Stan Wawrinka to come out of the bottom of the draw. He and Murray could potentially meet in the semifinals, but Wawrinka will need to hone his consistency if he hopes to unleash his powerful groundstrokes to challenge his legendary rivals.

Most of the firepower is in the top of the bracket, so it’s possible that Djokovic could fall to either Nadal, Kyrgios or Raonic in the quarterfinals. Nadal is the favorite because it’s clay and he understands winning, whereas Kyrgios and Raonic could be bombing each other a round earlier. The former can be mentally fragile and the latter physically bereft.

Below their quarter, Federer’s look at future star Alexander Zverev may not result in winning the Rome title, but Thiem or Kei Nishikori will be other possible obstacles before any of them can think about Djokovic or Nadal in the semifinals.

The best bet in the top of the bracket for the other players is that Nadal grinds out a three-hour upset over Djokovic with very little left to battle in the semifinals. Then the door would open as if admitting Ali Baba and the 40 thieves.

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Does Rome Mean a French Open Title?

Unless you are brand new to French Open tennis, you probably know that Nadal won nine of these major titles from 2005-14. Six Rome titles (2005-7, 2010, 2012-13) preceded French Open titles. The Rome title he won in 2009 preceded his famous French Open upset to Robin Soderling.

The other three years Nadal won the French Open (2008, 2011 and 2014) came after Djokovic won the Rome title. In a way, Nadal could still maintain French Open belief whether he or Djokovic win the Rome title. His legacy at Roland Garros is absolute, but it's also not exactly relevant with his decline in the past two years. This is not prime Nadal, although he is still capable of one more surprising French Open title.

On the other hand, Djokovic’s four Rome titles—where he defeated Wawrinka (2008), Nadal (2011, 2014) and Federer (2015)—have not resulted in the French Open title.

All told, that’s only six of 11 times that the Rome winner has gone on to win the French Open, all by Nadal. Prior to that, the historical trend showed even less reliability. Rome winners between 1993-2004 saw the Rome-French Open double occur only one time, and that took an epic clay-court season from Thomas Muster in 1995.

In recent years, Federer and Wawrinka won their French Open titles without winning Rome their entire career, although Federer had a heartbreaking five-set defeat to Nadal in 2006, an instant classic we commemorated two years ago.

For now, it’s a tough road to Rome for anyone not named Djokovic or Nadal. However, if Murray, Federer, Wawrinka, Thiem or someone else does hold up the Rome trophy, it’s far from guaranteed that they will win the bigger honor at Roland Garros.