The Stars Are Aligning for Andy Murray to Win the 2016 Australian Open

Andy Murray’s quiet journey through the 2016 Australian Open has been eclipsed by Novak Djokovic’s streaking dominance and Roger Federer’s perpetual glory. The Scot is not the favorite to close out this major championship, but he might be the one with clear skies and twinkling eyes in the land Down Under.

Rarely has the No. 2 player in the world seemed so overlooked. In the past few weeks, most forecasts have overwhelmingly tagged Djokovic as the favorite. They’ve lauded Federer’s offensive arsenal, Stan Wawrinka’s power and Rafael Nadal’s comeback as a legitimate contender.

Meanwhile, Murray has marched on in his bottom half of the bracket, while Wawrinka and Nadal have checked out. He’s silently walking, but his racket is talking with five solid wins and plenty of energy for the fights ahead.

Indeed, the stars seem to be aligning for Murray’s best chance to finally shine at Melbourne.

Looking to Banish Australian Angst

For nearly a decade, Murray has taken some big-match beatings. He’s been great in reaching the semifinals or better 18 times in 30 majors since Wimbledon 2008 (including the 2013 French Open when he sat out with injury), but he has won “only” two majors.

The difficulties for Murray have been well documented in trying to get through Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. Despite his own reputation as a backboard, the 28-year-old may as well have run into a stone wall when the Big Three blocked the way to major titles.

Six times (four times in Melbourne) he has lost a major final. Nine other times have seen him ousted in the semifinals. Just about anybody else might feel like quitting in frustration.

In 2015, he lost in the Australian Open final to Djokovic, the French Open semifinals to Djokovic and the Wimbledon semifinals to Federer.

In truth, he’s had a Djokovic-Federer problem, something he fully admitted last November in Tennis.com:

"

Since the beginning of last year, my results against him(Djokovic) and Roger, from my perspective, haven't been good enough. I need to do better in those match ups. It's harder playing against the best players. Those two are two of the greatest players of all time, so there is no disgrace in losing to them. But I do feel like I need to start doing better in those match ups, because the scoreline in the last couple of matches there hasn't been good.

"

The reality is that Murray has never been the favorite at a major. Sure, there are times like 2013 when he was one of the favorites, but he needs to find a few breaks from the bracket, the weather or other conditions. He needs to catch his superstar opponent on an off-day.

1. Murray got one more day of a rest before the 2012 U.S. Open, and the windy final clearly bothered Djokovic’s heavier groundstrokes. Murray rightfully gains credit for the win, but the tennis gods leveled the playing conditions just enough.
2. Ditto for Murray’s 2013 Wimbledon heroics. Djokovic was a worn-down finalist after a lengthy semifinal win over Juan Martin del Potro. He was rudely greeted with a hot day and ebullient London crowd that helped Murray sprint to the title. That was also a less potent Djokovic than the one we’ve seen in the last year.

So here is Murray at age 28, often dismissed but resilient as ever and two matches away from lifting a third major.

He’s won 15 of 17 sets in this tournament with his reliable returns, scampering retrievals, eclectic baseline patterns and efficient net play. He’s in great shape, rested and charged with ample energy for one or two marathon matches.

So far so good.

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Clash of the Titans

Nobody is happier than Murray that Djokovic and Federer will play each other. One of them will lose, and for the Scot, the perfect storm would conjure up a physically exhausting, mentally draining five-set match that leaves the winner leaning over his racket and staring into his own coffin.

This isn’t to say that Murray will walk through semifinal opponent Milos Raonic, but he is the strong favorite and knows how to finish off lower seeds. There’s not the same fear or scarred past when the semifinals does not contain one of the Big Three.

He’s now the strong favorite to get back to his fifth Australian Open final, and the gap might not be so great from there.

Andrew Brownbill/Associated Press

Murray’s got at least a puncher’s chance, and he’s a year stronger and better than he was a year ago when he melted down in the third set of the final to Djokovic. Last August, he won the Rogers Cup by defeating Djokovic in the final. In November, he won the Davis Cup despite his role as Atlas shouldering the weight of the world.

It has not all been pretty. During tough moments in matches, he habitually mutters at himself and throws up his hands when he doesn’t finish off points he had cornered. He can look a bit awkward when he comes in too aggressively, leaning over like the Tower of Pisa when he tilts into his strokes. Yet, his consistency wins out over and over against nearly the entire field.

Take the way he outlasted David Ferrer in the quarterfinals. He was solid in the first set but sporadic in losing key points and momentum along with the second set. But Murray has been through all the wars. He moved in like a dark raincloud and doused the Spaniard's chances with a burst of consistency and a few scattered, spectacular shots.

The tried and true Murray formula.

Two more matches to win, and this could be one of the best chances he gets with the remainder of his prime years. He needs to be regular Andy Murray in the semifinals, and he needs the match of his life in the final.

Andrew Brownbill/Associated Press

Neither Federer nor Djokovic is going to concede anything. The Swiss maestro has used a greater offensive variety to punch holes in Murray’s game the past two years, and King Novak has upgraded his serve, intelligent shotmaking and mental toughness.

One of them will be removed.

For Murray, all he needs is this next chance in the final. He’s been knocking at the door, but it’s time to kick it open. That’s what superstars do. They aggressively execute their game plan, make adjustments and walk through the refiner’s fire.

The odds are against Murray, but the stars are shifting. A little more help and a whole lot of big-game heroics could weave another epic tapestry for the Scottish hero. It’s something the southern skies are waiting to witness.