2016 Australian Open: Bold Predictions for the Second Week
Will Novak Djokovic have enough stamina to win the 2016 Australian Open after his five-set, fourth-round scare? How about the renewal of Serena Williams’ invincible play? Maybe this is the time for Roger Federer and Maria Sharapova to get over the frustrations of losing to their biggest rivals in recent years.
Our “Bold Predictions” column focuses on the second week of play in Melbourne, where a few surprise stories are sure to occur amid the usual stellar play of familiar superstars.
Find out how we think Bernard Tomic will make his mark in the second week and if we still feel that Agnieszka Radwanska will win the championship. Predictions are often a roll of the dice, but we can promise that there will be tough matches and excellent passion.
Expect the expected, but watch out for surprises.
Maria Sharapova Will Upset Serena Williams in the Quarterfinals
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The time has come for Maria Sharapova to earn a huge win over Serena Williams. After losing 17 straight matches to the American since 2004, Sharapova will finally break through her most formidable obstacle with a three-set win.
How?
It won’t be easy, but Sharapova’s big baseline groundstrokes will be backed up by the best serving she has shown in years. Finally she will be the one cashing in on some easier points. In the first four rounds, Sharapova has chalked up 52 aces in 81 games, while Serena has fired "only" 25 aces in 66 games. In her last two matches, Sharapova ripped 16 and 21 aces, respectively.
The upset will be augmented with Serena errors. Despite her fine play in the first four matches, Serena has hardly been challenged. She also has not faced someone who can hit with power to match her own. Maybe Serena presses a bit, sprays a few errors or gets more impatient this time around. She won’t be at her best, and Sharapova will cash in.
And how will Sharapova’s huge upset play into the next round? She will lose to Agnieszka Radwanska’s fine variety of imaginative shots. There will be no 2016 Australian Open title for Sharapova, but at least she will remove one huge career burden.
Victoria Azarenka Will Power Her Way to the Final
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The most telling part of Victoria Azarenka is that she has her swagger back. Yes, she is hitting more like the way she had during her two Australian Open titles from 2012-13. She is in much better shape than when she ran out of gas during big summer matches, most notably in disintegrating at Wimbledon against Serena Williams.
Azarenka is speaking with more confidence to the press, even as she refuses to look ahead in her draw, simplifying her expectations, as she said in her post-match interview after defeating Danka Kovinic: “I say that you always have to go out there and you have to prove yourself and you have to play and you have to win … .”
The former No. 1 is still not quite there, but she’s in the bottom half of the draw where everything is opening up, such as her consistent and powerful groundstrokes. She will rip through Barbora Strycova, Angelique Kerber and Madison Keys. She has the talent and the experience to play above major pressure.
Her chances are good to win the Australian Open, but she will fall one win short of three titles Down Under.
Agnieszka Radwanska Will Win the Australian Open
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Down 5-2 to hard-hitting Anna-Lena Friedsam, Agnieszka Radwanska fought back with a hold and a break. Then Friedsam took a lengthy medical timeout, had her thigh wrapped and appeared to be cramping. Between tears of anguish and heartbreak, Friedsam was unable to hold it together. Radwanska was determined not to let this one get away, and she held her nerves for the 7-5 closeout.
Nothing will be easy for Radwanska, who knows she must execute her angles, drop shots and lobs. She must be a defensive wall against bigger superstar players like Maria Sharapova or Serena Williams.
But there’s something about the confidence she is showing. She was unflappable coming back against Friedsam, and she will be ready to take care of Carla Suárez Navarro in the quarterfinals. Then she must outclass the aforementioned power queens, including a possible final against Victoria Azarenka.
Right now, Radwanska's play reminds me of the way former ATP star Mats Wilander could force Ivan Lendl and other hitters out of their comfort zones. She has plenty of game to play her way and win the Australian Open title.
We stated last week that Radwanska will win her first major, and she continues to show she has the toughness to augment her beautiful game.
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Bernard Tomic and Nick Kyrgios Will Make More Headlines with Their Comments
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Our off-the-court slide zeroes in on a couple of talented Aussies who, for all of their progress and promise, continue to make references to their own greatness before they have won anything significant.
Nick Kyrgios angrily lashed out about the “terrible referee” after losing his third-round match to Tomas Berdych. The temperamental Aussie continues to melt down with ignominious antics and excuses when losing. There’s a good chance he will fire off more comments later this week.
Not to be outdone, Bernard Tomic is warming up by taking more shots at legendary Roger Federer. Three years ago in the Australian Open, he proclaimed his readiness to defeat Federer, but he was put in his place after a straight-sets defeat in the third round.
Now he has decided to tell the world that Federer is “nowhere near” Novak Djokovic’s level of tennis. (Thanks for the insight, Bernard, but your statement merely emphasizes that your game should be on some uninhabited planet, if we are talking distances.)
Why goad Federer? Tomic has never shown even an ounce of Federer’s talent, but more importantly, he has never shown Federer’s commitment, work ethic and classiness.
Stay tuned, because when Tomic does go down, he will leave a trail of smug proclamations. If not, his mate Kyrgios wouldn’t mind talking about how much he likes basketball.
If these two Aussies suddenly disappeared from professional tennis, few would even notice or care.
John Isner Will Shock the World by Defeating Andy Murray
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First, John Isner will need to pummel plenty of aces against David Ferrer in the round of 16.
No problem.
Then Isner will need to win tiebreakers or score a couple of other service breaks.
It won’t be easy, but he will score the upset.
Finally, Isner will need to do even better against world No. 2 Andy Murray. Can he pull off this quarterfinals stunner? On paper, it shouldn't be possible against one of the top returners in history and a feisty star who can scrap back against all manners of opponents.
This is our big upset call. Isner is 0-5 against Murray, but he will find a way to shock the world when the Scot plays a lackluster match. Sometimes these things happen when we least expect them.
Of course, there will be more matches to play, and Isner will love playing in his first major semifinal. Then the clock will strike midnight, and his game will turn back into a pumpkin. Not all fairy tales end happily ever after.
Roger Federer Will Take Two Sets from Novak Djokovic in the Semifinals
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One of the other great stories of the Roger Federer legend is how easy he makes it look in the first week and a half. He truly shuts down players who are a level below him and builds up momentum that excites the tennis world. Has anyone ever made things look so easy for so many matches?
Federer’s path has opened up with wild cards Nick Kyrgios and Marin Cilic falling out of the way. Instead, Federer gets the more consistent Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals, but the Czech has hardly troubled Federer in the past couple of years. Federer should get things done in three or four sets.
Once again, Federer will get the Herculean task of facing Novak Djokovic—this time in the semifinals.
Expect a great effort from Federer. He’s still able to defend his great serve, keep the points short whenever possible and mix in slice and varying paces to create points. Despite his three losses to Djokovic in major finals since Wimbledon 2014, Federer is ready to bounce back.
He’s going to play great in the semifinals and have the opportunity to play a fifth set, but once again the Serbian will win a classic. It’s hard to predict the details, but Federer has proven time and again that he is a battler. It would be enough against anyone else, but Djokovic will prevail.
Stan Wawrinka Will Survive to the Australian Open Final
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Maybe Milos Raonic will have a great day and brush aside Stan Wawrinka. There would be a better chance for that at Wimbledon or the U.S. Open. Instead, Wawrinka should have enough to get through the dangerous Canadian on a surface that he loves. Wawrinka will march on.
On to the semifinals. Whether Isner upsets Murray or the Scot pulls through, Wawrinka’s baseline power is best featured in big matches when he has time to wind up his strokes.
It will be the first time he gets Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open final.
Will we get another classic?
It’s possible, but Djokovic has a way of turning challenges into stepping stones, and he will understand that he needs to force more of the action than he did in last year’s French Open final. If Djokovic gets Wawrinka moving from corner to corner and forces him into off-balance shots, it will be long odds and a short match.
Wawrinka’s been great in a few big matches the past couple of years, but he’s not going to win a second Australian Open title at the expense of a revenge-minded Djokovic.
Novak Djokovic Will Not Be Stopped
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Novak Djokovic looked annoyed. There he was grinding away with lightweight Gilles Simon who played his counterpunching game with aplomb. The world No. 1 was ambivalent, trying to mix in safe power, ineffectual doses of slice and awful drop shots.
Five sets and 100 unforced errors, but Djokovic kept his cool in closing out the stubborn Simon. (Rafael Nadal fans all over the world must be wondering how Djokovic can struggle against Simon with Djokovic hitting junk and spraying errors while their Spanish hero gets destroyed in the Doha final.)
Does this mean that the great Djokovic is now vulnerable to an upset against Kei Nishikori?
In a word, “no.” We’ve seen this before from Djokovic, where he has to gut out a tough match or two on the way to a major title. Really, it’s to be expected. These are the top players in the world, and it’s more unrealistic to expect Djokovic to steamroll everyone.
So this will be the wake-up call that Djokovic needs—a reminder that Nishikori, Federer and a finals opponent will take his best concentration and warrior’s mentality. The Simon match was good for him, and being stretched out to four-and-a-half hours in that match will be incentive enough to come out like gangbusters in the quarterfinals.
To be sure, Djokovic will be tested again on the road to the Australian Open title, but he’s going to hold up that sixth trophy.
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