Bold Predictions for Tennis in 2016
After a year of domination from Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams, 2016 will likely see more parity at the top. There are deep fields of superstars in both the ATP World and WTA tours, and the time is ripe for more contenders to carve up a few major championships.
Our "Bold Predictions" column is a preseason outlook on which of these stars and events could produce the biggest surprises. We will attempt to look at logical, possible changes in tennis, so we are not trying to look into a crystal ball for the next Flavia Pennetta vs. Roberta Vinci major final.
Where do Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Simona Halep and younger talented players fit into our outlook? Who will be a comeback star, and which major venue could produce a surprise men’s champion?
All of this and more as we open up a brand-new year of tennis.
Serena Williams Will Not Win Multiple Majors
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Serena Williams will be well rested heading to Melbourne, and the Australian Open might be her easiest opportunity to win a major. The 34-year-old superstar spent a lot of physical play and emotion in 2015 as she piled up a 53-3 record that included three majors and a semifinal loss to unseeded Roberta Vinci in the U.S. Open semifinals.
She will find it more difficult in 2016, particularly after many breaks went her way in 2015. For instance, Serena only played seven of her 56 matches against top-10 players (winning six). The WTA should be stronger at the top with better seasons from power players such as Victoria Azarenka and Petra Kvitova.
Serena also played 19 three-set matches, according to ESPN, which shows that players could stay with her, but to her credit, she was able to win with other factors such as her experience and mental toughness. She figures to lose more often in 2016.
There are more young players with fresh legs and ambitious goals who have nothing to lose in playing the great Serena. Garbine Muguruza and Belinda Bencic have not been mentally beat down.
So, give Serena another major to tie the all-time legend Steffi Graf and her 22 career singles majors, but other players will step up in the WTA and deny Serena multiple majors in 2016.
The Djokovic-Federer Rivalry Will Fizzle in 2016
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In 2015, world No. 1 Novak Djokovic and legendary Roger Federer saw their rivalry peak with eight meetings, including clashes in the finals at Wimbledon, the U.S. Open and the ATP finals among other big matches. Djokovic won five times, including the aforementioned biggest finals.
Their rivalry has produced an even split of 44 career matches, and it received attention as one of the greatest rivalries in history.
That will change in 2016. Federer will find it difficult to get through an even stronger field at the Australian Open with a healthy Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray as well as a dangerous player in Stan Wawrinka, who has been the second-best player at Melbourne since 2013.
Furthermore, Federer is reducing his springtime schedule by opting out of Miami and all clay-court tournaments except Roland Garros. This leaves the second half of the year for Djokovic vs. Federer, and the momentum of their rivalry will have worn off. Federer's seeding will probably not be No. 2 when Wimbledon rolls around after some of his points total evaporates from the clay season.
We predict that in 2016 they will not meet in a major final. Other players will seize opportunities.
Djokovic is also likely to lose a few more times in 2016, meaning that stars and younger players could break through in a few more big matches, thereby denying last year’s big rivalry.
It might even be the virtual end of their career rivalry, at least for meaningful major matches. It won’t get any easier as the years continue to unfold.
A Young Star in the WTA Will Win a Major Title
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As Serena Williams rolled through the WTA in 2015, seizing three of the four major titles, her nearest competitors were either hampered by injuries (Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka), ill-timed malaise (Simona Halep and Petra Kvitova) or not enough experience (see any number of examples ranging from rising veteran Lucie Safarova to the inexplicable collapse of Eugenie Bouchard).
That’s going to change in 2016 in what will be a transitional and pivotal year that will set the future direction of the tour.
This will be the year that one of the younger potential stars rises up and sets a new tone in the WTA, establishing the belief that younger players are ready and capable of defeating Serena for championships.
Start with Spaniard Garbine Muguruza, who has risen to No. 3 in the rankings. She has enough big-game talent to win majors on any surface. In 2014, she hammered Serena at the French Open. She lost to Serena at the 2015 Wimbledon final. It’s time for her to take the next step by winning a major.
Belinda Bencic has already proven that her shot-making savvy and heady composure can make her a champion as early as 2016, though it’s more likely she could use another year or two of seasoning. Don’t be overly surprised if she does come through. She was not fazed in winning the Rogers Cup against a very tough lineup of stars.
Madison Keys has the power and serve to be a star, but she will need greater consistency and composure with her game, something that will be a big part of what her new coaching team must bring her. It’s a coin flip if she will be a contender or struggle with hot and cold spells.
New blood in the WTA will be good for the tour. We think at least one of the young generation will break through with that major, and Muguruza could do it at Melbourne or Roland Garros.
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There Will Be a Surprise Men's Winner at Wimbledon
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Wimbledon is where the eyes of the world tune into tennis. Even casual sports fans sense the tradition that invites them into the green lawns and nostalgic reminders of past legends such as Rod Laver, Bjorn Borg, John McEnroe, Boris Becker and Pete Sampras.
Lately, Wimbledon has been Novak Djokovic’s stamp of superstardom, where he has taken out the great Roger Federer to win the championship in consecutive years.
And while Djokovic has used his brilliant return game, athleticism and mental toughness, this will be the year that someone else comes along and showcases a newfound sense of power, touch and belief.
Someone else will win Wimbledon, and it will not be Djokovic, Federer or Andy Murray. Now that’s bold.
Who could it be? At this point it’s merely a guess, so the answer is that it will be someone who is playing very well through the spring, shows confidence and flashes of rising brilliance. Then he puts it altogether. Here are the top candidates:
- Nick Kygrios controls his huge serve and puts together his entire talent.
- Marin Cilic takes a page from the 2014 U.S. Open.
- Milos Raonic gets an unbelievable major with massive serving and excellent timing on big points.
- Grigor Dimitrov uses his well-rounded game and a great draw to take the surprising title.
- Rafael Nadal gets the most unlikely comeback title of his career.
A big first half of the year through the French Open should open the way for a few players to emerge. Then, watch out for Wimbledon.
Victoria Azarenka Will Get Back to the Top 5
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A few years ago, it looked like Victoria Azarenka was ready to take over the WTA with her hard-hitting groundstrokes and ferocious demeanor. A two-time Australian Open champion, she relished battling Serena Williams with her comeback in the 2013 U.S. Open final. She should have been ready to take a greater step in 2014.
After her foot injury led to a lost season in 2014, it was a slow climb in 2015 for her to regain her form. She has had to rebuild her seeding toward the top 20. The times she did play well (stretching Serena at Wimbledon) saw her hit a wall from a lack of conditioning and stamina that she needed to play at her best level.
This year, she will be ready to soar into the top five and challenge for major titles once again. There’s a good chance she wins one of the two hard courts majors, more likely the U.S. Open after she’s had more time to peak.
All grunting and screeching aside, Azarenka has the talent and tenacity to be the best player in the WTA. There will still be a few bumps in the road to the WTA finals in Singapore, but she will be booking her reservation to prove that she is one of the top stars.
Grigor Dimitrov Will Make It to the 2016 World Tour Finals
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It would be premature to call 2016 "The Return of Grigor Dimitrov." After all, the talented 24-year-old who has seemingly been under the spotlight has never lived up to all the hype.
This could be his last chance to become an elite player.
"Bold Predictions" will roll the dice that he does indeed become a major contender, and his leap forward in 2016 will set him up for major title opportunities into the 2020s.
Dimitrov has the ability to star on all surfaces. He has excellent footwork and defense on clay, a big serve and strong forehand for grass, and he has the world-class strokes to become a dominant player.
Part of his problem in the past has been his reluctance to play more aggressively, often standing far behind the baseline, which especially exposes his weaker backhand. Moving up and hitting harder can make him a new player, and it will be necessary for him to rise up into the elite.
Dimitrov should be energized this year, and he now has new coach Franco Davin (who worked well with Juan Martin del Potro) to give him new direction.
"It's good to finally feel alive again a little bit, and I think that's been happening to me in the past weeks," Dimitrov told Kate Flory of the ATP World Tour website. "I feel like I've got the spark again and I'm feeling motivated, which is a pretty good feeling."
He’s ranked No. 28, but we predict that Dimitrov will have a strong spring and then roar in the summer with great Wimbledon and U.S. Open runs. He will be ranked inside the top eight and make his first of many trips to London’s World Tour Finals.
Radwanska or Halep Will Finally Win a Major
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Agnieszka Radwanska and Simona Halep are two finesse players with beautiful games and stars who have fallen to their knees more often than not after going deep in majors. They are different, of course.
Radwanska, a one-time Wimbledon finalist and former world No. 2, uses an array of precision angles, slices, lobs and drop shots, and she rarely hits unforced errors. She anticipates well enough to bleed her opponents—that is to force them into awkward positions or replies.
Halep, a one-time French Open finalist and current world No. 2, hustles with tenacious defense. She is a genius for changing opposing shots' directions by guiding them up the line. She reads spin, uses impeccable timing and understands how to lean into the ball with her 5'6" frame.
Neither of these stars will take over the WTA, but they could each win a major or two over the next few years while some of the younger, bigger hitters come of age. In 2016, one of these two will finally get over the hump.
Halep seems more likely, given her No. 2 seed and greater body of success the past couple of years. She blew her best chance, going down quietly in the U.S. Open semifinal to Flavia Pennetta. She would have been the heavy favorite against Roberta Vinci.
Radwanska showed resilience in getting to the Wimbledon semifinal, and then she was the champion at the year-end finals in Singapore. She should have the confidence to compete well in Australia, continue to bolster her rating and finally get that major.
Nadal’s 2016 French Open Victory Will Be the Last Major Title of His Career
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Rafael Nadal could very well win the Australian or French Open in 2016. His lifelong coach and uncle, Toni Nadal, predicted that his nephew would be dominant once again.
"I think that he can win more Grand Slams," he told ESPN.com's Mark Hodgkinson. "He can win the Australian Open in January. And he can win Wimbledon, too. The last few years, Rafael arrives at Wimbledon and he loses early, and very fast. And, in Roland Garros, for sure, Rafael can win."
Midway through the 2015 French Open, we figured Nadal would bounce back as a favorite to win the 2016 French Open. His recent work since the U.S. Open has set him up for a confident and excellent chance at the Australian and French Open titles. We say he will indeed get that 10th title at Roland Garros.
But history shows that the first half of the year could exhaust Nadal for the second half, especially because of his hard push late in 2015. He relies heavily on his legs to play physical, gruelling tennis, and he’s not the indefatigable retriever that he once was.
Other younger, aggressive players are coming, and it will be hard for Nadal to muster up the quick-strike offense to counter.
He hopes to improve, but he’s not likely to alter his game much this late in his career, something he suggested to Agence France-Presse (h/t Tennis.com): "I'm not Federer, I'm Rafael Nadal. He has his style, and I have my own style. I for sure try to improve many things during all my career, and for sure I'm working hard to be a better player. And if I am a better player, for sure I will have the chance to play a bit longer."
It does not bode well for Nadal to dominate tennis beyond 2016 either, so although nothing is certain, the 2016 French Open, his 15th career major, could be the last major title of his career.
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