Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Indianapolis Colts (6-8) will be fighting for their playoff lives when they visit the Miami Dolphins (5-9) on Sunday. The Colts have won four of the past five meetings with the Dolphins straight up, and the visiting team is also 5-1 against the spread in the last six games of the series. Miami has lost five of seven at home and four of five overall.

Point spread: This game was off the board early in the week at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.0-21.1 Colts

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indianapolis has very little margin for error right now, as a loss to the Dolphins and win by the Houston Texans would end the team’s playoff hopes. Motivation obviously become the biggest factor in deciding whether or not to back the Colts to cover the spread. They have something to play for here, and Miami does not—it’s that simple.

The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in their last five games, which signals that they are no longer playing hard for interim head coach Dan Campbell, who will likely be gone at the end of the season. Last week’s 30-14 road loss to the San Diego Chargers as one-point underdogs is the perfect example of a team laying down at the end of the year with nothing on the line. San Diego was motivated to win in what might have been the team’s last game at Qualcomm Stadium, while Miami showed no fire whatsoever.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins wrap up the regular season with two home games, and this one would appear to be the easier to win because the finale is against the New England Patriots. While the Patriots may decide to rest players in that game, Indy’s starters are probably not much better than their reserves despite the Colts trying to avoid elimination here.

There is a reason Indianapolis is in this hole right now, and it goes deeper than franchise quarterback Andrew Luck getting hurt. Colts head coach Chuck Pagano is in the final year of his contract and will probably not be back next year. His team has lost three in a row SU and ATS and may be trying to get the season over with at this point.

Smart pick

This is one of the toughest games to handicap in Week 16 considering the mental state of both teams. On one hand, Miami is just rolling through the punches. On the other, Indianapolis does not have much left in the tank and could be quitting on Pagano.

Former Miami Hurricanes Frank Gore and Andre Johnson may be the difference for the Colts in what could be their last trip to Sun Life Stadium together. Take a shot with Indy knowing the team must win or could miss the playoffs for the first time in four years.

Betting trends

The visiting team is 5-1 ATS in its last six games in this matchup.

The Dolphins are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games.

The Dolphins are 0-3 ATS in their last three games after a loss.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.