NHL Power Rankings: B/R Experts' Week 6 Poll
We're at that point in the season when "it's still early" starts becoming less and less relevant.
Already, multiple clubs are eight or more points out of a playoff spot, which doesn't sound that bad until one realizes the Colorado Avalanche, for example, would have to go something like 41-19-8 to match the point total the final wild-card team of last year finished with. At the other end of the spectrum, Montreal can match the same test by going 30-25-11 the rest of the way.
The fates of the teams at the top and bottom of the league aren't written in stone, but realistically we can guess at their fates right now with a very good chance of getting it right in broad terms.
That, of course, isn't most teams. Of the league's 30 clubs, 22 currently sit within two wins of the club on the playoff bubble. That's where a little more parsing is required and where our power rankings come in.
Once again, we turn to our expert panel to break down the league's 30 clubs. This week, Allan Mitchell, Lyle Richardson, Carol Schram and yours truly voted to determine the order of the list that follows. As always, we're attempting to look beyond the NHL standings here and provide some unique insight. Also as always, we're going to have mixed results.
Read on for our takes, and let us know what we got right and what we got wrong.
30-26: Colorado Avalanche to Calgary Flames
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30. Colorado Avalanche (Last week: 28)
Colorado won just a single game last week, moving to 1-3-0 in the month of November. One-goal losses to the Sharks and Rangers at home are particularly unsettling because those represented the Avs' best chance to pile up some points before heading out on an extended road trip.
The Avalanche will spend the next two weeks on an elongated swing through the Eastern Conference, playing seven games in all before finally returning home on November 25. Already mired in 28th in the NHL standings, the club desperately needs to find a way to tread water here.
29. Columbus Blue Jackets (Last week: 30)
Could the Jackets finally be finding some traction? With a three-game road swing through California last week, it would have been easy for the team to revert to early-season form, but that didn't happen. Instead, Columbus won two out of its three games, moving to a respectable 4-4-0 record under new head coach John Tortorella.
Brandon Dubinsky, who played under Tortorella in New York for years, has perhaps adjusted the fastest; he scored points in all three games and now has three goals and five assists under his new (and old) coach.
28. Toronto Maple Leafs (Last week: 27)
The Leafs continue to be in games late, but that's cold comfort for a team that has now lost three consecutive contests and fallen to last place in the NHL standings. This week saw Toronto lose a one-goal game (plus an empty-netter) to the Jets in regulation, then fall to Detroit in overtime and Washington in a shootout in back-to-back contests to close out the week.
James Reimer has started every minute this month for the Leafs, as regular No. 1 Jonathan Bernier is on injured reserve with what Sportsnet's Luke Fox reports as a "lower-body injury." Reimer allowed a stinker in the first period against the Red Wings but has given Toronto solid goaltending overall in every game so far this month.
27. Edmonton Oilers (Last week: 25)
Edmonton lost two of its three games this week, but the record is secondary to a much bigger setback. 18-year-old phenom Connor McDavid injured himself in Tuesday's win over Philadelphia. He's listed as being out "indefinitely" on the team website after undergoing surgery for a broken collarbone.
The Oilers have fallen to 5-10-0 on the year and are just two points ahead of 30th-placed Columbus. Incredibly, early indications are another lottery pick is a possibility for a club that already has four No. 1 overall picks on its roster.
26. Calgary Flames (Last week: 26)
The Flames enter this week facing the prospect of a four-game road trip, but last week they took care of business at home, defeating the visiting Flyers and Penguins after dropping their first contest in Denver. Calgary finished the week with a plus-one goal differential, thereby modestly improving their NHL-worst minus-22 figure. Johnny Gaudreau put up three points in the game against Pittsburgh and now has 17 for the season in just 15 games.
25-21: Florida Panthers to Arizona Coyotes
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25. Florida Panthers (Last week: 19)
Saturday's loss to Los Angeles was the Panthers' fifth straight defeat. After winning three of their first four games, the club has now lost eight of its last 10. The loss to the Kings was particularly embarrassing, with Florida being outshot 30-9 though two periods before L.A. mercifully let off the gas. Jonathan Huberdeau picked up two assists on the week, but the 2011 No. 3 overall selection is still looking for his first goal of the campaign.
The incredible thing is Florida has arguably been getting the bounces this season. The team ranks third in the league in five-on-five save percentage and is a top-10 shooting-percentage team. Despite this, they are now four games below 0.500 on the season.
24. Philadelphia Flyers (Last week: 22)
The good news is the Flyers' six-game losing streak is finally over, coming to an end on Saturday with a 3-0 win over the Winnipeg Jets in which Michal Neuvirth turned aside 28 shots. The bad news is it was only a six-game losing streak because Philadelphia lost its first three contests of the week. Those losses spoiled some splendid outings for Philly's returning goaltender; Neuvirth had 0.938 and 0.933 save percentages in the two games he started.
23. Buffalo Sabres (Last week: 24)
It was a quiet week for the Sabres, who played in just two games, beating the Canucks but losing to Tampa Bay. Linus Ullmark, the 22-year-old rookie who is Buffalo's best healthy option in net, played in both games, surrendering three goals on just 11 shots against the Bolts but then bouncing back in a big way with a 35-save performance in Vancouver. This past week continued a substantial run of 0.500 hockey for Buffalo, which has made strides after a busy offseason.
22. Carolina Hurricanes (Last week: 23)
The Hurricanes had an odd week. They were at home with four full days off before they finally hosted Dallas on Friday and Ottawa on Saturday. The red-hot Stars dropped them by a 4-1 score, but Carolina did manage a 3-2 come-from-behind overtime victory over the Sens and have won four of their last six contests.
Jeff Skinner fired five shots (tied for his season high) and scored his third goal of the year against Ottawa; he's struggled badly this season but now has two goals in four games, which may represent a modest first step back to production.
21. Arizona Coyotes (Last week: 20)
After allowing just two goals in his first three starts of the year, Mike Smith has been a trainwreck. As such, it was encouraging for Coyotes fans when he stopped 26 of 28 shots in a game against the Avs on Thursday, posting a 0.929 save percentage that represents his best performance since October 14. Head coach Dave Tippett was encouraged enough to start him against New York in the Yotes other game last week, but he only lasted 25 minutes before getting the hook, which was enough to give Arizona the loss.
"I have to be better," Smith told Jerry Brown of NHL.com. That, regrettably, has been true for more than a calendar year now.
20-16: San Jose Sharks to Detroit Red Wings
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20. San Jose Sharks (Last week: 21)
San Jose dropped two out of three last week, falling to an ugly 3-7-0 in their last 10 games after winning their initial four. The final game in those three came against the Anaheim Ducks, and the Ducks' win allowed them to climb to within two points of the Sharks for the final postseason berth in the Pacific Division.
The biggest reason for San Jose's prolonged slump is goaltender Martin Jones. After a brilliant run (4-0-0, 0.982 save percentage) to start the year, he's been pedestrian in his last seven outings (2-5-0, 0.898 save percentage).
19. Anaheim Ducks (Last week: 29)
The Ducks team everybody expected to show up this season seems to have finally arrived—just a month late. Anaheim kicked off November with a win last Sunday against Nashville and won all three games it played this week; in just seven days, the team has gone from one win to five.
Ryan Getzlaf's return from injury was a critical factor in allowing Anaheim to win the back-to-back set it played to close out the week; he picked up assists on four of the club's five goals, only missing a point on Clayton Stoner's empty-netter versus Columbus.
18. Boston Bruins (Last week: 12)
November did not get off to a good start for the Bruins, who lost three of their four contests. Sunday saw Boston claw out a 2-1 victory over the New York Islanders, but that wasn't enough to redeem a seven-day span in which they surrendered 13 goals in losses to Dallas, Washington and Montreal.
If there is a positive to be found in the week, it's likely Tuukka Rask's 36-save performance against the Isles. After a disastrous start to the year, his game is finally trending mostly in the right direction.
17. Vancouver Canucks (Last week: 15)
It was a tough seven days for the Canucks. Vancouver split two games at home, beating the faltering Flyers but falling to the Penguins. They then headed out to start a seven-game road trip, one with six stops in the East before finally ending in Winnipeg on November 18. The first two games of that trip were played over the weekend, with the Canucks losing a pair of one-goal contests to the Sabres and Devils.
Ryan Miller played in both games and was lit up pretty badly in both. Like Jones, he has slumped badly after a strong start. He went 3-0-1 in his first four games with a 0.955 save percentage; since that time, he is 2-4-4 with a 0.898 save percentage.
16. Detroit Red Wings (Last week: 17)
Detroit climbs one spot to 16th after winning two of three games on the week. The most critical game of the three was a Tuesday matchup against the Lightning that may well end up having playoff implications in the Atlantic Division. The Wings did well, winning in regulation; they now sit just a single point behind the Bolts.
One point of concern for the Wings is at five-on-five, where the club's score-adjusted Corsi is the second-worst in the NHL—though it's miles better than the 30th-placed Avs. So far, that hasn't hurt the team because its goaltending has been so good, but it's worth keeping an eye on.
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15-11: Tampa Bay Lightning to New York Islanders
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15. Tampa Bay Lightning (Last week: 14)
When did the Bolts start having trouble scoring? After dropping two of three games this week and only scoring a single goal in those losses, Tampa Bay has now scored one goal or less in six of its last eight contests. Unsurprisingly, they lost all six of those games.
Right now, our panel is content to leave last year's Stanley Cup finalists at the midpoint of the league. I can't speak for my colleagues, but in my case it's because I expect the obvious talent on the roster is going to start scoring at some point. Steven Stamkos may already be turning a corner; he has three points in his last four games after going pointless in four straight contests.
14. New Jersey Devils (Last week: 18)
Those plucky Devils don't seem to be going away. For the second week in a row, they won two of three games played, dropping a one-goal decision to the Islanders before knocking off Chicago in regulation and Vancouver in overtime. Travis Zajac had four points on the week and is now flirting with the point-per-game mark; he notched just 25 points last year and hasn't had a 50-point season in a half-decade.
Is it sustainable? Well, the underlying numbers don't look bad and Cory Schneider is an elite goalie—and one of the most underrated players in hockey—so it just might be.
13. Ottawa Senators (Last week: 16)
Every game the Sens played this week was close, which in the NHL generally means points. Ottawa beat Montreal and Winnipeg in extra time to start the week and collected a fifth point on Saturday with an overtime loss to Carolina. This is a bit of a pattern for the club, which has seen seven of its 14 games this term go beyond regulation. Five of those made it to the shootout.
12. Chicago Blackhawks (Last week: 13)
Chicago had a busy week, playing four games, and they did OK, going 2-1-1. A win over Los Angeles was a nice moment for the team, a chance to face and conquer a club that has vied with the Hawks for supremacy in the West in the last few years. An overtime loss to St. Louis wasn't bad, either, particularly since the Blackhawks had a 43-29 edge in shots in the game. A loss to New Jersey and win over Edmonton rounded out the week.
Patrick Kane picked up goals and points in all four games and is now on a four-game goal-scoring streak and a 10-game points streak. His four-point night against the Oilers moved him into a tie with Tyler Seguin for first overall in NHL scoring.
11. New York Islanders (Last week: 9)
The good news is John Tavares is back, and while he didn't score in either of the games he played, he did pile up an impressive 10 shots on goal. His return caused the Isles to dump struggling Ryan Strome to the AHL. The bad news is New York lost both games it played with its returning captain, falling to the Bruins and Habs.
Tavares should bolster the offence, and the Islanders could use the injection of scoring. In its last six games, the club has been held to a maximum of two goals and to just one in three of its last four. Prior to this latest run, the team amassed 28 goals in its previous seven contests, an average of four per game.
10. Winnipeg Jets
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Record: 8-5-2, 18 points
Last week: 10
Big picture
The Jets are in a vicious fight for a playoff spot in the Central Division. Dallas has earned a little bit of space with a three-game winning streak, but the gap between St. Louis in second (21 points) and Chicago in sixth (17 points) is just two wins. At most, five teams from the division can make the playoffs, so every week matters.
From that perspective, Week 6 didn't go great. Winnipeg had a chance to pile up some points against mostly unimpressive Eastern foes and went 1-1-1. That's a fine record in a vacuum, but this was a chance to make hay while the sun was shining. Now they head out on an awfully important four-game road trip, which starts in Minnesota and takes them to three of those Central opponents fighting for postseason berths.
By the numbers
Blake Wheeler had a decent week, putting up three points over three games, which brings him to a total of 17 points on the season. That ties him for fourth overall in NHL scoring, behind only Tyler Seguin, Patrick Kane and Jamie Benn.
9. Pittsburgh Penguins
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Record: 9-5-0, 18 points
Last week: 11
Big picture
For all the doom and gloom over misfiring offensive stars in Pittsburgh, the Penguins have done a pretty good job of winning hockey games lately. Prior to Saturday's loss to Calgary—the second part of a back-to-back—the Pens had won six straight games and nine of their previous 10.
Still, there's no room for slacking now. Pittsburgh currently sits third in the Metropolitan Division with 18 points, just one up on the Devils and Islanders and conceivably within range of Philadelphia and Carolina if either club turns around after a slow start.
By the numbers
The conventional wisdom on Pittsburgh is that it is a talented team with lots of offensive clout, some skilled possession players but a young defence and occasionally uncertain goaltending. So it's interesting that in the early season the numbers reflect almost precisely the opposite.
At five-on-five, Pittsburgh's 0.946 save percentage ranks third in the NHL. It's shooting percentage (6.0 percent) is tied for 24th. The club's Corsi at evens is under 50 percent, the power play is shooting blanks (when it shoots at all) and while the penalty kill is getting clobbered on the shot clock the goaltending has bailed it out.
We'll see which trends hold, as it's still early, but right now Marc-Andre Fleury is doing more to help his team win than any of Pittsburgh's other highly drafted stars.
8. Minnesota Wild
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Record: 8-3-2, 18 points
Last week: 8
Big picture
After nearly a week-long break, the Wild finally got back into action on Thursday, falling 3-2 to Central Division rival Nashville. They rebounded to beat the Lightning 1-0 on Saturday, but like the Jets, Minnesota has cause to begrudge every point lost—and especially those points lost to divisional rivals.
There's a really good team in the Central that's going to miss the playoffs, and more than any other task this season, the Wild need to make sure it isn't them.
By the numbers
Devan Dubnyk's 31-save shutout on Saturday was his best game of the season so far and brought an end to a four-game run of surrendering three or more goals. He hasn't come close to matching last year's exceptional work, but his 0.907 save percentage is getting closer to the league average. Minnesota's playoff hopes hinge in large part on Dubnyk's ability to provide the team with at least competent minutes, something that has been a struggle early on.
7. Nashville Predators
8 of 14
Record: 8-3-2, 18 points
Last week: 5
Big picture
Like seemingly everybody else in the Central Division, the Preds are in that weird position where a route from where they are now to a 2016 Stanley Cup win is almost as plausible as a scenario in which they miss out on the playoffs entirely. They helped their cause a little with a win over Minnesota, then hurt it a slightly with a loss to St. Louis.
By the numbers
Craig Smith has been a pretty key offensive cog for Nashville in recent years, topping 20 goals in consecutive seasons. He's stuck at just three points on the year—all of them goals. He's averaging his usual three shots per game, and the combination of a slightly low shooting percentage and zero assists has him well below his normal pace.
6. Los Angeles Kings
9 of 14
Record: 9-5-0, 18 points
Last week: 6
Big picture
After being one of the league's hottest teams in late October, the Kings slowed it down a little to start November, going 2-2-0 over four games played. That doesn't hurt them much at all; with 18 points, L.A. sits in first place in the rather wimpy Pacific Division, and even with the Ducks making a push, it's hard to see real long-term danger as long as they tread water.
By the numbers
Jeff Carter was one of the Kings' players who had a bit of a slow start to the season; through the first five games, he was stuck at just two assists. On October 22, he exploded for four points against San Jose, and over the last nine contests he has scored seven times and added six assists. He's currently on a three-game scoring streak.
5. Washington Capitals
10 of 14
Record: 10-3-0, 20 points
Last week: 4
Big picture
The Caps' loss to the New York Rangers on Tuesday hurt a bit; the two clubs are fighting for top spot in the Metropolitan Division and that defeat is the difference between first and second place. Still, Washington moved on immediately, beating Boston in its next game and following that up with a shootout win over the Maple Leafs. The Capitals haven't lost two in a row all season, which is a really good way to hang around the top of the standings.
By the numbers
The impressive thing about Washington is the team's current performance doesn't set off any red flags at five-on-five. The club's save percentage is just a touch low, and it's shooting percentage os just a touch high, but the two effects cancel each other out. The Caps' positive goal differential is driven entirely at even strength by dominance on the shot clock (55.3 percent score-adjusted Corsi, which is good for second best in the NHL), something that tends to be sustainable over the long haul.
4. St. Louis Blues
11 of 14
Record: 10-3-1, 21 points
Last week: 3
Big picture
The Blues were shut out by Los Angeles on Tuesday but made up for it over the rest of the week, scoring 10 goals total in wins over Chicago and Nashville, who also happen to be two Central Division rivals. Even playing in the toughest division in hockey, the Blues have established some distance between themselves and the playoff cut line.
By the numbers
Rookie defenceman Colton Parayko has been a godsend for the Blues. With the loss of Kevin Shattenkirk to injury early in the year, he stepped into the top four, providing quality minutes on the right side of the ice. He's also been an offensive revelation. With 10 points in 14 games, he ranks first among rookie defencemen in scoring and fifth among rookies overall.
3. New York Rangers
12 of 14
Record: 10-2-2, 22 points
Last week: 7
Big picture
New York won all three games it played this past week. This continues a run of success for the team over the last few weeks. The Rangers are now the proud owners of a five-game winning streak and a nine-game points streak. That performance has propelled them to first in the Met and third in the NHL.
By the numbers
As usual in New York, goaltending has been a key factor in the Rangers' success. Henrik Lundqvist is 7-2-2 with a 0.945 save percentage, and it's awfully hard to lose with that kind of performance between the pipes. Incredibly, backup Antti Raanta has perhaps been even better, going 3-0-0 with a 0.976 save percentage. Arguably his best game came on Saturday, when he turned aside 39 of 40 shots in a win over the Coyotes.
2. Dallas Stars
13 of 14
Record: 12-3-0, 24 points
Last week: 1
Big picture
Dallas won three straight games last week, scoring 13 goals and almost casually crushing the Bruins, Hurricanes and Red Wings in their own buildings. Despite this, the Stars drop a spot because they also lost a game in regulation to the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Stars are almost without question the top team in the West right now, three points up on the Blues, though St. Louis has a game in hand.
By the numbers
Tyler Seguin has recorded a point in eight consecutive games and in 13 of 15 contests on the season. He has 13 points during his latest scoring streak alone. His 23 points ties him for the league lead with Patrick Kane, puts him two points up on teammate Jamie Benn and at least six points clear of everyone else in hockey.
1. Montreal Canadiens
14 of 14
Record: 13-2-1
Last week: 2
Big picture
There was some grumbling last week about Montreal falling to second on this list, but unlike Dallas, the Habs didn't lose to Toronto in regulation and thus once again find themselves at the top of both our panel's rankings and the overall NHL standings. The Canadiens have been dominant from the word go, and went 3-0-1 on the week.
By the numbers
Balanced scoring has been a big part of the reason for Montreal's success early this season. Nine different players have between 11 and 15 points, with seven forwards and two defencemen currently on pace to crack the 55-point mark. Torrey Mitchell has scored 8, 10 and 13 points over the past three seasons; he already has nine on the year.
The crazy thing is Montreal's on-ice shooting percentage isn't nuts. At five-on-five, 8.7 percent is a little high, but four teams managed that last year. The power play is a different story (22.7 percent), but even ignoring it, the Habs have 10 players on pace for seasons of 35 or more points at evens.
News and statistics are courtesy of NHL.com, war-on-ice.com and behindthenet.ca and are current through the start of action on November 9. Our experts participate in weekly voting for B/R's NHL power rankings. Once a vote is cast for a specific team, it's assigned a value—30 points for the No. 1 team in the rankings, 29 points for the second spot and so on. The totals are then added up to create the power rankings.
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