US Open 2015 Women's Final: Pennetta vs. Vinci Preview and Prediction
There will be no calendar Grand Slam for Serena Williams at the 2015 U.S. Open, as unseeded Roberta Vinci notched the tennis upset of the century and eliminated the world No. 1 in stunning and dramatic fashion.
New York loves a good underdog story, and the city just witnessed the ultimate one.
Now, Vinci will collide with compatriot Flavia Pennetta in all-Italian battle that no one could have predicted before the tournament. These two veterans, both playing in their first major final, will have immense pressure on their shoulders to capitalize on the golden opportunity that awaits them.
To reach this point, they took out some of the top stars in the game; they’ve truly earned their spots in the championship. But only one of them can stand victorious.
So who will it be? Here’s a look at the history between these two women, their road to this point and what to expect as they duel for one of the sport’s most hallowed prizes.
Who Has the Historical Advantage?
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Known more for their doubles prowess, these Davis Cup teammates have faced each other nine times in singles. And it’s definitely been a see-saw rivalry.
They traded victories in their first seven meetings, though Pennetta ended that trend by winning the last two. Coincidentally, their most recent match came in the 2013 U.S. Open quarterfinals, a 6-4, 6-1 drubbing by Pennetta. If only we knew then what they’d eventually have in store for us.
Overall, Pennetta leads the series 5-4. But it’s important to note her 2-0 mark against Vinci at Grand Slam tournaments. Can she stretch that winning streak, or will the third time be the charm for Vinci?
Vinci at the 2015 US Open
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Before she landed her incredible upset of Williams, Vinci worked extremely hard just to have that shot.
Not counting a fourth-round walkover she received from Eugenie Bouchard, three of Vinci's first four matches went the distance. A quick win over Vania King in the opening round preceded tight affairs against Denisa Allertova, Mariana Duque-Marino and Kristina Mladenovic.
Her quarterfinal slugfest with Mladenovic spanned two-and-half hours in the sizzling heat, leaving many wondering if she'd have anything left against Williams. Maybe she's Wonder Woman in disguise because Vinci showed no signs of wear against the most iconic player of her generation.
Despite quickly losing the first set, Vinci regrouped. She decided to take the fight back to Williams and hung tough from the baseline with some heroic and impassioned baseline wizardry. The crafty Italian eventually coaxed a stream of errors out of Williams and took the second set.
She began the third down a quick break. Instead of wilting, she only seemed to grow stronger from that moment. A nervy Williams began to throw in more errors and some costly double faults, allowing Vinci to break for the lead and serve out the historic win.
Magical, unbelievable, seminal; you can pick many superlatives to describe that performance. We'll soon find out what kind of magic she can regale us with next.
Pennetta at the 2015 US Open
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The 26th seed had to survive some tense matches to reach the championship, but she’s raised her level against increasingly tough opponents.
Pennetta was forced to go the distance in both the first and third rounds against Jarmila Gajdosova and Petra Cetkovska, respectively, each time using her sheer grit to pull out the wins.
Her level of competition amplified when she faced 2011 champion Samantha Stosur in the fourth round. Pennetta, however, controlled the match from start to finish, sweeping the Aussie by a tidy score of 6-4, 6-4.
After dropping the opening set to Petra Kvitova in the quarterfinals, things started to look bleak for Pennetta. Yet she didn’t panic and held her ground as the Czech unraveled. A 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 comeback put her into a second U.S. Open semifinal.
Her most dominant display came while playing Simona Halep. She punished the world No. 2 in a 6-1, 6-3 route, scoring one of the biggest wins of her career. Capitalizing on costly miscues by Halep, the Italian now finds herself in a maiden Grand Slam final.
Will she be able to keep her momentum going?
Biggest X-Factors?
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There will be breaks.
Both players have done a tremendous job the last two weeks at generating (and capitalizing on) break points. Because neither has the biggest serve, they should each see quite a few more opportunities. Who will step up and make the most of those looks? The answer could well decide the outcome of the championship.
Pennetta and Vinci also possess equally potent backhands, though in different ways. Vinci loves to wickedly slice hers and attack the net. Pennetta is more content to hang near the baseline and hit through backhands, pinning opponents back and ripping some brilliant winners.
Count on each of their backhands to be clicking. But can either of them find a way to dictate with their other shots, especially on the forehand side? They both love playing defense; one of them will have to take the initiative and attack.
And don't discount the enormity of the situation. While they've each won major titles in doubles, this one will be another beast altogether from a pressure standpoint.
Vinci Will Win If...
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Can she catch lighting in a bottle twice?
Vinci is so crafty and technically sound, her slices and approaches a throwback to an older era. Even though she's not the most imposing of figures, the Italian is a fearless competitor. She refused to quit against the sport's greatest champion, always believing she had what it took to win. Against Pennetta, she'll need more of the same fight.
There's a risk that Vinci could come out flat so soon after exhausting all of her resources in the semifinals. If she can avoid that emotional hangover and go back to work, Vinci just might complete her Cinderella run.
Pennetta Will Win If...
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One of Pennetta’s biggest strengths is her backhand. So smooth and reliable, she uses it with great efficiency to slap winners or keep her in points. As a returner, it’s an especially lethal weapon.
During the tournament, she's won over 60 percent of second-serve return points in all but one of her six matches. The only time Pennetta didn’t hit that mark was against Stosur, though she still climbed above the 50 percent mark in that match. If you don’t get a high percentage of first serves in against the Italian, she will make you pay.
She’s also a very clean player from the baseline. In five of her six matches, Pennetta hit more winners than unforced errors. What she lacks in overwhelming power she makes up for with calculated and precise shots.
To take down Vinci, Pennetta will have to keep attacking second serves and limiting her mistakes. It sounds simple enough, but execution is everything.
Prediction
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This one is a prototypical pick ’em.
Both women stack up well against each other, have a long history together as competitors and teammates and are each riding a wave of momentum. Truly close to call, this unlikely final could go either way.
So here’s why Pennetta will win.
Vinci is bound to come back down to Earth after playing at an otherworldly level against Williams. Sustaining that form will be difficult enough; the trickiest part comes psychologically and emotionally. Can she summon enough energy after already winning the match of her life?
Playing on consecutive days—especially after a long, physical test—won’t be easy for Vinci. Neither will facing Pennetta’s superb defense.
Expect an entertaining showdown with plenty of extended rallies and tactical complexities. It could very well go the distance, but Pennetta’s two-week odyssey will end with a soaring crescendo.
All statistics are courtesy of WTATennis.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report.
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