Is Wimbledon Win a Foregone Conclusion for Serena Williams After Dominant Start?

The draw is dwindling, and the pressure is rising. Only two matches stand in the way of Serena Williams and a second Serena Slam.

To put it mildly, there is quite a lot on the line for Serena as Wimbledon winds down.

If she can defeat Maria Sharapova in the semifinals on Thursday and Garbine Muguruza or Agnieszka Radwanska in the final on Saturday, she will win her sixth Wimbledon title, her 21st Slam overall.

Dave Caulkin/Associated Press

That would give her all four Slam titles at once for the first time since the 2003 Australian Open. It would also set her up to win the calendar Slam and to tie Steffi Graf with 22 Slams if she claims the U.S. Open title later this summer.

As good as Serena's been throughout her career, especially over the last year, it's hard to imagine her not achieving all of that.

However, it's important to remember that it's not over until it's over, as Stan Wawrinka reminded us once again at the French Open last month with his shocking win over the seemingly destined champion, Novak Djokovic.

Still, somehow, the closer she gets to history, the better Serena seems to play. She's 33 years old right now and is playing some of the best tennis of her life.

On Monday and Tuesday she faced two of her toughest rivals in her sister Venus Williams and former No. 1 Victoria Azarenka.

She defeated Venus in straight sets in the fourth round and came back from a set down to knock out an in-form Azarenka in the quarters, hitting 82 winners and only 25 unforced errors in all five sets combined.

In the semifinals, Serena faces No. 4 Sharapova, whom she has absolutely owned over the past 11 years. Serena leads the head-to-head series 17-2 and hasn't lost to the Russian since the 2004 WTA Championships.

"It's been a while [since she's beat me], but she's been playing really well," Serena said of Sharapova after her quarterfinal victory, as reported by Danielle Elliot of Busted Racquet. "I don't have anything to lose. I'm just going in there and if I don't [win] there's always next time."

Chris Chase of For the Win argued that because so much is on the line for Serena, and because she's such a heavy favorite, Sharapova will be able to swing freely and get the upset:

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For the first time since Serena's winning streak over Maria became "a thing" (say around match No. 8), the pressure will be more on Serena's side of the court than Sharapova's. The Russian is expected to lose. Seventeen doesn't sound that much worse than 16. She can be freer and easier, knowing that Serena is two wins away from a second Serena Slam and nine wins away from a historic Grand Slam. Sharapova, on the other hand, is just playing with house money.

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But I'm not sure I buy Chase's logic in this case.

First of all, when you get to the Wimbledon semifinals, nobody is playing with house money. Sharapova is a five-time Slam champion because she is one of the biggest fighters on the WTA Tour and desperately wants to win every time she steps on the court.

There are no moral victories for Sharapova. She's well beyond that.

Meanwhile, Serena is also trying to claim the "nothing to lose" philosophy, which is even more laughable. While losing to Sharapova in the semifinals on Thursday would in no way diminish her legacy, winning this Wimbledon would put one of the greatest feats in tennis history at her fingertips.

There will be a massive amount of pressure on both Serena and Sharapova in the semifinals, and whoever handles it best will go a long way toward determining the winner.

However, if they both handle it well—which is what I would expect, given their pedigrees—then Serena firmly has the advantage since her game matches up so well against Sharapova's.

Of course, it's not just Sharapova and nerves that are Serena's opponents the remainder of the fortnight; she will have to actually face someone in the final, too.

With defending champion Petra Kvitova falling in the third round, the bottom half of the draw is open, but the players who remain aren't ones to take lightly.

Radwanska was Serena's opponent in the 2012 Wimbledon final and managed to take a set off the current world No. 1 before falling in that championship match. The 26-year-old has had a rough year but has found the confidence and form that once made her the No. 2 player in the world.

Kirsty Wigglesworth/Associated Press/Associated Press

Muguruza, meanwhile, is a 21-year-old rising star who is playing in her first Grand Slam semifinal here at Wimbledon. However, the Spaniard announced herself on the international stage last year at the French Open when she upset none other than Serena in the second round.

So No. 13 Radwanska and No. 20 Muguruza are both dangerous players who are capable of rising to the occasion and seizing the moment if Serena falters, but they would definitely need some help from Serena to get the major upset.

Really, it's all in Serena's hands from here on out, as so many things are.

That's where we are: The signs are all pointing toward another magical chapter in the can't-put-down novel of Serena's career. But sports stories don't always follow the obvious path, so we're just going to have to wait to see what happens.

We're either going to see history being made once again by one of the greatest players of all time, or we're going to see one of the greatest late-round upsets in Wimbledon history. That's reason enough to tune in.