NHL Free Agents 2015: Predictions for Top Players Who Will Hit Open Market
The NHL free-agent market is rarely as exciting that of the three other majors sports, almost by design. The league has been under a salary-cap structure long enough for general managers to know how to work the system, and the league's robust trade market makes "bad" contracts avoidable.
By and large, teams will re-sign their star-level veterans to long-term deals regardless of whether they have plans of actually fulfilling them. This is almost by design. Both teams and players have the incentive to stay together as long as possible thanks to the collective bargaining agreement, which usually leaves only mid-tier guys available come July.
That will especially be the case this summer, as the crop of players with expiring contracts is average (at best) before anyone re-signs with his incumbent team. On the other hand, the relatively weak crop means that more "top" players will likely be on the move.
Let's take a look at a few players hitting the open market and find their best matches.
Devan Dubnyk, G, Minnesota Wild
It's hard to believe the Wild would entertain allowing Dubnyk to leave, even for a second. Given up on by three different franchises, Dubnyk finally showed the promise that made him a first-round pick more than a decade ago. He went 29-7-2 with a 1.78 goals-against average in his 39 starts. His emergence played a vital role in Minnesota's playoff run, though the hot streak failed him a bit come May.
Both the team and Dubnyk have indicated they would like to remain together.
"There's no reason why I wouldn't want to be here; it's been a lot of fun for me and definitely the most fun I've had in my career," Dubnyk said last month, via Dan Myers of NHL.com. "I'm not going to go look elsewhere if there is no need to, and obviously that depends on what comes and how those conversations are going."
Backups Darcy Kuemper and Niklas Backstrom are a bit expensive and are under contract through next season, but Minnesota should look to trade at least one of them this offseason. With negotiations between the two sides already underway, look for Dubnyk to be signed, sealed and delivered before the free-agency period begins.
Prediction: Re-Signs With Wild
Mike Ribeiro, C, Nashville Predators
Another surprising performer, Ribeiro enters free agency coming off a stellar campaign in Nashville. The veteran scored 62 points, including a team-high 47 assists during the regular season. He was an integral facilitator and was one of the NHL's best bargain contracts.
Heading into free agency yet again, Ribeiro will be looking for the long-term deal that has eluded him in recent offseasons. Whether the Predators will (or should) give it to him is the question.
Ribeiro is 35 years old and saw his previous two teams before Nashville make little effort to bring him back. While he didn't have quite the production level in Washington or Arizona, Ribeiro was still no slouch. He had 49 points in 48 games with the Capitals and 47 points during his stint with the Coyotes. Each team appeared willing to bet that the Quebec native's prime was over.
Based on all accounts, though, Ribeiro appears to have found a home in Nashville.
"Mike Ribeiro, that's one of the best stories of the year," general manager David Poile said, via Adam Vingan of the Tennessean. "A real rebirth of his career. He was in (Friday); I talked to him. He couldn't be happier. His family couldn't be happier here. His kids are in school; they're all doing well. They love the whole area of Nashville...I'd like to get that done."
As long as they can find an amenable contract length—probably two or three years—we should see Ribeiro set up shop in Nashville.
Prediction: Re-Signs With Predators
Mike Green, D, Washington Capitals
The Capitals face a number of free-agency questions this summer, which could leave Green floating in unknown territory. Once a stalwart on Washington's first line, Green saw his average time on ice dip below 20 minutes for the first time since 2006-07. That downturn may make the two sides, who have been together since Green was drafted in 2004, think about moving on.
“It’s hard to think that the uncertainty of this summer and what might happen, is probably a little scary (sic) at times for myself to think that anything can happen,” Green said last month, via Alex Prewitt of the Washington Post. “I’ve got to thank Washington for everything, up until this point. It’s been quite the journey, and we’ll see what happens.”
There are any number of possibilities for where Green could land. While he's not quite at the level he was a couple years ago, he's a first-line defender for a vast majority of NHL teams. Especially given the form he showed down the stretch, Green should command a multiyear deal that puts him a bit out of Washington's price range.
That deal won't come close to approaching the $6 million-plus per season he made over the last three years, but it should be enough to instigate a divorce. Although this is purely speculative, the Avalanche need defensive help and could use a veteran presence to go along with their burgeoning young talent.
Prediction: Signs With Avalanche
Carl Soderberg, C, Boston Bruins
Boston would like to re-sign Soderberg, the team's second-highest-scoring center. That just seems like an unrealistic goal if Soderberg wants to be paid to the level of his production.
The Swede has shown real improvements in each of his two full NHL seasons and enters free agency looking for what could be the biggest contract he'll ever sign. Center isn't a position that's lacking in NHL circles, but players like Soderberg have value around the league. He rarely takes a play off, has an astute head for the game and has solid passing vision.
Having carved a bit of a niche the last two seasons, it'll be interesting to see if Soderberg's willing to give Boston a discount. The Bruins are among the NHL's most cap-strapped teams and aren't about to start lopping off stars to bring back secondary talent. Even if Soderberg has value, Boston can probably get 80 percent of his production at a much smaller cost.
Again, in purely speculative terms, the Rangers and Capitals could each look to bolster their second lines by pursuing Soderberg. If forced to choose, New York seems more likely just on the chance to add a level of intrigue to one of the NHL's best rivalries.
Prediction: Signs With Rangers
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