French Open 2015 Women's Semifinals: Williams vs. Bacsinszky Preview, Prediction

Serena Williams had perhaps her easiest match of the tournament in the quarterfinals against Sara Errani. Williams won in straight sets, losing just four games along the way to advance to her fourth French Open semifinal.

Her opponent for Thursday’s semifinal match (10 a.m. EST) is 25-year-old Timea Bacsinszky, the first Swiss woman since Martina Hingis to reach a French Open semi since 2001.

Williams is attempting to win her 20th Grand Slam and keep herself alive to win all four in one year. Back in 2002 to 2003, she won all four in a row, just not in the same calendar year.

In order to complete the Serena Slam, she’ll have to get by Bacsinszky. Read on for this intense semifinal draw.

Who Has the Historical Edge?

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The historical edge, as it so often is against Williams, is 2-0 in favor of, you guessed it, Williams.

The first time Williams played Bacsinszky was back in 2010 on the clay in Rome. Williams won 7-6 (2), 6-1. They also played earlier this year at Indian Wells on the hard court.

After beating Bacsinszky in Indian Wells, Williams said on BBC.com, "I'm just happy I was able to get through and still be alive in this tournament when I haven't clearly been the Serena that we all know.”

That line is somehow prophetic. After Williams faced several scares in this French Open, her dominance over Errani in the quarterfinals is the “Serena that we all know.”

Williams at the French Open

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In the macro sense, Williams is now a four-time semifinalist and a two-time winner of this event. Amazingly, her two French Open wins came 11 years apart, in 2002 and 2013.

In 2015, in the micro sense, Williams dropped the first set in her second-, third- and fourth-round matches. Her road to the semis was always going to be a challenge, but she appeared to make it all the more harder on herself.

She sneaked by the always-challenging Victoria Azarenka in the third round and then handled the sister-slaying Sloane Stephens.

''It's not how you start, I guess. It's how you finish,'' Williams said in an Associated Press story (h/t FoxSports.com). ''That's kind of how I'm looking at it.''

Bacsinszky at the French Open

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The Swiss has been remarkably consistent at the French Open, just not consistently good. In her previous five attempts at Roland Garros, she lost in the second round each and every time.

She’s having a career year, though. Out of her three career titles, two have come this year, and she has parlayed that into a deep run at the French.

Bacsinszky defeated Madison Keys, an Australian Open semifinalist, and backed down two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova in the fourth round.

Wins like that have a way of making a player feel invincible.

The Biggest X-Factors

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Maybe it will come down to how each player handles the second serve. Williams comes down to earth on her second serve, winning only 49.4 percent of those points at the French Open. Her first serve is so powerful that there's bound to be some letdown for her sequels.

Bacsinszky, though not as strong as Williams, won 56.4 percent of her second-serve points. That includes her first-round match where she only won 38 percent on second serve.

That’s sort of boring. Who wants to talk about second serves?

Something far more abstract could be Williams finding her mojo. It’s not quantifiable, but she made it this far despite 52 unforced errors in the second round and 43 in the fourth round.

While second serves could play a significant part in this match, Williams’ swagger heading into this match could be the biggest X-factor in Paris.

Williams Will Win If...

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Williams will win if she keeps her first-serve points won above 70 percent. In her two most dominant wins of the tournament—the first round and quarterfinals—she won 79 percent and 72 percent of first-serve points.

"The power is, of course, a big thing,'' Errani said in Jim Caple’s espnW.com story. "She's serving so strong. And then the baseline hitting is so strong, so it's difficult to play.''

If Williams wins the first set, there’s no way Bacsinszky can climb out from under that boot.

Bacsinszky Will Win If...

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Williams can’t keep dropping opening sets and continue to advance in this tournament. Eventually, these things catch up to a player.

And maybe Bacsinszky just needs to keep things loose and steal that first set from Williams.

Louisa Thomas of Grantland.com wrote:

"

How did she do it? This was her life, her game, her pleasure. She learned to adjust, to follow a plan where a plan was needed and then to break it where it was not. “There is always this touch of spontaneity,” she said earlier this tournament. Take that drop shot. It’s a small way of taking control, of saying, “Here I am. Watch me now.”

"

She’s the story of the women’s draw, and she’s playing with the kind of confidence that could carry her into the finals.

Prediction

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It’s a nice sentiment to think that the player who never advanced farther than the second round at the French Open could win this match, but she’s staring up the sheer cliff that is Mount Williams.

Williams is all too aware of how well Bacsinszky has been playing. And at this point in the tournament, Williams feels that she's playing with house money at Roland Garros. She said in Jim Caple’s espnW.com story:

"

She's had a really good year, so it's not going to be an easy match at all for me. I need to come out strong again. Most of all, I need to relax. If I win, great. If I lose, I want to be able to do the best that I can do. I'm not putting too much pressure on myself. I'm surprised I'm still in the tournament, so this is really cool for me.

"

Williams wins in straight sets 7-6 (5), 6-1 and keeps her bid for the calendar Slam alive with major No. 20 on her mantel.