The NHL's Dream Fits for Connor McDavid Entering the 2015 Draft Lottery
The NHL's annual draft lottery is this Saturday, and the 2015 edition comes with much more excitement than is usually attached to the event because the prize is Connor McDavid, who will enter the league with the same kind of hype that surrounded Sidney Crosby and Eric Lindros before him.
It goes without saying that the 14 teams eligible in this year's lottery would all love to get their hands on the player, but what does the NHL think? Under the watch of commissioner Gary Bettman the league has ruthlessly and efficiently improved its ability to make money, and from its perspective, McDavid in the right market would be worth a mint.
Which market should that be? Read on for our best guesses as to the league's preference.
14. Edmonton Oilers
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Why it works for the league: The Oilers are a wretched team that can't seem to right itself despite a plethora of high picks; it's possible that McDavid is so good that even Edmonton couldn't mess him up. Additionally, his arrival would be a nice reward for a city that just forked out a pile of public dollars to build a new arena for its hockey team.
Why it doesn't work for the league: Edmonton's current roster boasts three first overall picks, and the system has a host of other high first-round selections. There's already a young core in place, the Oilers have already had plenty of luck at the lottery table, and more than any other team on this list they don't deserve the extra help. Add in "small media market" and "passionate Canadian fanbase," and this is probably the worst possible destination from the NHL's viewpoint.
13. Carolina Hurricanes
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Why it works for the league: Nobody can deny that the Hurricanes could use the help. The team has missed the playoffs in eight of the last nine seasons since winning the Stanley Cup in 2006 and is currently on a six-season drought. Connor McDavid could be just what the doctor ordered to turn around a team which, according to ESPN, ranked second to last in NHL attendance in 2014-15.
Why it doesn't work for the league: How much attention is Raleigh's hockey team ever going to get from the national media? Even if McDavid turns around the Hurricanes' fortunes, this is a small-market team and far from the ideal place to showcase the NHL's next big star.
12. Florida Panthers
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Why it works for the league: Miami is a large market, which is good, and the Panthers are a largely irrelevant team in desperate need of a savior. Landing McDavid in Florida would allow the league to simultaneously put him in front of a bunch of cameras and perhaps reverse the apathy surrounding the Panthers. Additionally, Florida has a pretty decent young core in place and could hope to get competitive rapidly.
Why it doesn't work for the league: It sort of depends on how committed the NHL is to the Panthers. The team's owner called the franchise's current model "unsustainable" just last year in an interview with the Toronto Sun, and if relocation is on the horizon, it wouldn't do to waste McDavid on the market.
11. Colorado Avalanche
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Why it works for the league: Denver is a bigger market than some of the others on this list, and with teams from all four major North American sports in the city, it has a solid sports-media presence. The team has a solid heritage despite its relative youth, and the presence of Patrick Roy and Joe Sakic in senior positions ties that tradition to the present. The Avs aren't as far away from contending as some on this list either.
Why it doesn't work for the league: This is probably the most vanilla destination on the list for the league. Being out West there are some time-zone problems, albeit not as many as California. It's not a small market, but it isn't a massive one either. There just isn't as much going for the Avs from an NHL perspective as there is for other teams.
10. Dallas Stars
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Why it works for the league: The Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area has a massive population and decent media focus, which makes it a reasonable fit for a major young star like Connor McDavid. The team is fairly strong and might well make a big playoff push early in McDavid's career.
Why it doesn't work for the league: Like the Oilers, the Stars have an abundance of young talent (albeit acquired without a massive amount of No. 1 picks), and so the need for a marketable star is lower here than in most of the other cities on this list.
9. Columbus Blue Jackets
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Why it works for the league: Columbus is already a pretty good team; it has a solid young core and if not for injuries would already be in the playoffs, which means there is a very good chance that the addition of McDavid could result in an instant contender. Like Carolina, the Blue Jackets play in the Metropolitan Division, meaning lots and lots of games against teams from New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Washington.
Why it doesn't work for the league: Even with their other advantages, the Blue Jackets play in a relatively small market, which is less than ideal for the league. Importantly too, the franchise probably doesn't need saving; attendance is trending the right way, and the results on the ice are improving on their own.
8. Arizona Coyotes
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Why it works for the league: Gary Bettman and the NHL have taken a lot of heat in the past for failing to do all they could to save struggling teams facing relocation. That hasn't been the case in Arizona, where the league has fought heroically to keep a team in Glendale in the face of apathy from a lot of the city's residents.
A player like Connor McDavid could do wonders for the team's situation, perhaps even single-handedly saving the team in its current market.
Why it doesn't work for the league: Much like the Hurricanes, the Coyotes are a small-market team, and McDavid is bigger than just the fortunes of one franchise. Leagues are built at least in part on star power; getting McDavid into a major media market may trump saving Arizona's team from the league's perspective.
7. San Jose Sharks
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Why it works for the league: Despite being out West, the Sharks really aren't a bad fit for the league. The San Francisco Bay Area has a high population and a strong media presence (particularly on the sports side). Add to that a Sharks team with a pretty solid (if older) core, and the league could have Connor McDavid contending for the Stanley Cup as a rookie in front of lots of cameras. That's the dream.
Why it doesn't work for the league: Ideally, McDavid ends up somewhere out East, since the time-zone difference means that he'll be highly visible nationwide as opposed to playing most of his games as New York residents are getting ready for bed.
6. Buffalo Sabres
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Why it works for the league: The nice thing about a Buffalo win is that it would feel deserved. The Sabres are legitimately the worst team in the NHL and need Connor McDavid more than any of the other clubs on this list just to get back to competitiveness. Nobody's going to ask any awkward questions about the fairness of the lottery if the Sabres win either.
Why it doesn't work for the league: Buffalo is a relatively small American market, and while a player like McDavid won't be ignored there, he won't get the attention he would in a larger centre. Additionally, even if the Sabres lose the lottery, they can't feel too bad. It means they'll definitely land Jack Eichel, and he's a player worth building around in his own right.
5. Toronto Maple Leafs
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Why it works for the league: Toronto is a major market. A major Canadian market, it's true, but there's absolutely no question that every time McDavid so much as took a skate in practice there would be thousands of cameras on him. If the NHL wants McDavid front and centre, the Leafs are a great fit. A McDavid selection is also the kind of thing that might make the Leafs' ownership quieter in its complaints if and when the NHL decides to put a second team in the Toronto area.
Why it doesn't work for the league: The NHL doesn't really have to worry about being front and centre in Canada. It's the No. 1 sport in the country by a mile, and the arrival of McDavid would simply reinforce that rather than allowing the league to expand its media presence.
4. Philadelphia Flyers
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Why it works for the league: Obviously, the best-case scenario for the NHL is if Connor McDavid ends up in a major media market. Philadelphia certainly qualifies and comes with all the bonuses of the Metropolitan Division. Also, if the league can't market McDavid/Giroux against Crosby/Malkin, it clearly has no idea what it's doing.
Why it doesn't work for the league: Aside from the optics of a team with a 6.5 percent chance of winning the lottery coming away with the No. 1 pick, the NHL should have a bigger problem with this. The Flyers have significant cap-space problems, and it might take years for the team to get into the financial shape necessary to build a contending core around McDavid.
3. Boston Bruins
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Why it works for the league: A legendary sports city in the heart of the massive East Coast media market? A strong team that could be a contender in a jiffy with some shrewd managerial decisions? Sign the NHL up because that's a lovely combination.
Why it doesn't work for the league: The Bruins have a one-in-100 shot at winning the draft lottery. It's not hard to imagine what the reaction from the media following the sport will be if McDavid lands in Massachusetts. It's such an unlikely result and so perfect for the NHL that it's going to raise suspicions about the integrity of the lottery.
2. Los Angeles Kings
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Why it works for the league: I'm really resisting the urge to make a "Hollywood ending" pun here. L.A. is the second-biggest market in the United States, which is wonderful for maximizing the focus on Connor McDavid. And the presence of so many celebrities will ensure that the NHL gets plenty of pictures of A-listers watching its new young star. The impact won't be as large as it was when Wayne Gretzky arrived in California, but it will be big. And unlike Gretzky, McDavid could easily win a Stanley Cup with the Kings.
Why it doesn't work for the league: The Kings are already an exceptional team, arguably the best in the NHL over the last several years. And while that ensures that McDavid will be a playoff fixture immediately, it also means that the potential for growth within the market is more limited than it would otherwise be. With the Kings' odds being scarcely better than Boston's, this is also a result that would raise some concern as to the fairness of the lottery.
1. New Jersey Devils
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Why it works for the league: It isn't Manhattan—and the Devils have "New Jersey" instead of "New York" in front of their name—but this is as close to putting Connor McDavid in a Rangers uniform as the NHL is going to get this year. With the Islanders and Rangers both extremely strong teams and obvious geographic rivals, this is already looking good. Add in a rivalry between the Devils and the Flyers and New Jersey playing in the same division as both Sidney Crosby's Penguins and Alex Ovechkin's Capitals, and this is pretty much a Gary Bettman dream come true.
Why it doesn't work for the league: It might be a little too good to be true. New Jersey has just a 7.5 percent chance of winning the lottery, and because of those odds and how good a fit this is, there will be eyebrows raised if the Devils win the lottery.
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