Doug Wilson Must Make Free Agency Decisions for San Jose Sharks

Whomever the Sharks hire to coach this roster, the pressure falls squarely on the players: if they don't deliver, they are clearly to blame.  So how will the coaching decision affect the signing of free agents, both on the team and outside of it? 

Let's first examine the free agency situation itself. 

The Sharks have a few restricted free agents: defenseman Christian Ehrhoff, left wing Ryan Clowe, and centers Marcel Goc and Joe Pavelski.  There are also a number of unrestricted free agents: goalies Brian Boucher and Dimitri Patzold; defensmen Brian Campbell, Sandis Ozolinsh, and Alexei Semonov; forwards Tomas Plihal, Patrick Rissmiller, and Jody Shelley; and centers Jeremy Roenick and Curtis Brown.

Restricted free agents come at a reduced price because teams often do not want to pay for them in both salary and draft picks.  That coupled with the fact that they are still improving makes them the best value to sign.  Thus, I would expect the Sharks will have no trouble re-signing any of their restricted free agents they want to.

I cannot imagine Plihal, Ozolinsh, Semenov, or Patzold will have much market value, so they are basically in the same category as the restricted free agents: we can sign them if we want to.  Thus, the issue is less about which coach would the preceding restricted and unrestricted free agents want to play for and more about how many of them can be afforded and are wanted. 

Regardless of who coaches the team, Brian Campbell will be a difficult player to sign because of his open-market value.  Jeremy Roenick has already indicated a preference for re-signing with the Sharks.  Thus, the only players we have to analyze based on the influence the coach the Sharks hire has on bringing them back are Boucher, Brown, Shelley, and Rissmiller.

Brown and Shelley would seem to be the kind of guys Burns would want: hard-nosed, hard-working, old-school role-players.  Not that Hartley would not, but if I were either of these guys I would prefer Burns.  Rissmiller is a utility guy who can fit into any system.  In either case, they all play vital roles and need to be retained assuming they do not demand contracts in the seven-digit range, in which case only Brown is worth the price.

Boucher would probably find himself in the same boat he was in this year with either coach: not playing.  Both had studs who carried their championship teams and playing a lot of games between the pipes.  If he can get a good offer elsewhere, he will take it.

Therefore, I will work with the likelihood that much like Mark Smith last off-season-very much pursued, but wanting to get a shot elsewhere-Boucher will not be back.  This would mean the Sharks would need to re-sign Patzold or go after a cheap free agent goalie like Curtis Joseph.  I would feel safer with the latter choice.

I will also assume that Campbell will price himself too high for the Sharks.  He will command in excess of $6 million/season, and after his playoff struggles should be deemed not worth that kind of commitment. 

This means the Sharks will have to sign someone like playoff-tested leader Jason Smith, who fits Burns' style better as a physical defensive-minded blue liner.  He could likely be had for about half what Campbell will demand.

Of his restricted free-agent forwards, Doug Wilson must re-sign Pavelski and Clowe, great young two-way forwards who have already shown a proclivity for big goals.  Goc should probably be retained if his cost is as low as expected since he is a good skater and great in the face-off circle, making him a good insurance policy when someone gets hurt.

Ehrhoff, playing hurt in the post-season and still very young, has yet to shake the tendency to turn the puck over.  Only by personal knowledge of Ehrhoff's character could I assess whether this problem will continue. 

If Wilson is unable to sign Campbell or bring in another defensemen like Smith, he will have no choice but to retain Ehrhoff.  However, my assumption is that the team will be able to bring in someone better even if they lose Campbell, and Ehrhoff will be able to get a decent enough offer that he should not be re-signed.

I would not re-sign Ozolinsh, who is near the end of his career and generally a liability on defense, unless there is quite a void in that unit.  Under no circumstances would I waste money or even a uniform on Alexei Semenov, who is slow, has trouble handling the puck, and has terrible vision on the ice. 

I am also puzzled as to what Ron Wilson saw in forward Tomas Plihal, who provided little on the offensive end despite often playing on the second line.  The fact that these two played as much as they did was another sign that Wilson often jumbled his lineup without good reason.  However, Plihal will probably command only the minimum, in which case he is worth bringing back.

Aside from whatever money the team can offer, the talent on their roster is Doug Wilson's most important asset, especially with older players.  Everyone wants a(nother) chance to win a Cup, and only a few teams offer a better chance at that than the Sharks have. 

As long as they have hired a coach who has proven he can do that, I doubt the specific person will make any marked difference.  The team is not going to have the budget to recruit any marquee free agents, and some of the second-tier guys they may target will prefer one, some the other.

The Sharks need to finish their search for a coach before free agency to attract players who want to assess their chances of winning with their prospective new teams.  I would also give Pat Burns a slight edge in helping us to keep those we have.

However, their affect on free agency will be minimal enough as to not be a consideration for who is offered the job.  Wilson must hire the man who will do the most with whatever roster he is given.