Stock Watch for Rafael Nadal's Biggest Challengers at 2015 French Open
All tournaments lead to the 2015 French Open, and every ATP star is playing to dethrone Rafael Nadal. It's the single most important quest of the tennis season, and a successful result could enshrine somebody's legacy forever.
There's more to this than simply identifying the top contenders.
How have they played in February, and how will upcoming tournaments help their chances at Roland Garros? Who, at this moment, are the biggest threats to Nadal?
How will the lineup of contenders get shuffled before Paris' grinding Mars-like surface separates one champion from all the rest? The road to Paris is long, but the following six challengers are the most ready to duel against the Spaniard's personal dynasty.
6. Tomas Berdych
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Stock: Up. Hold in the laughter for just a minute. Yes, Tomas Berdych lost 17 consecutive matches to Nadal from 2007 to 2015. The Czech star is not renowned as a mentally tough big-match champion, especially in comparison to Nadal's nine Musketeers Cups. However, Berdych threw the gorilla off his back last month, defeating a less-than-stellar Nadal in the fourth round of the Australian Open.
This could do wonders for his confidence. Berdych then followed up the victory with an appearance in the final at Rotterdam in February.
Pre-French Open outlook: Berdych is adept on all surfaces and should contend well at Indian Wells and Miami in March. The key will be whether he can raise his game another level on clay. Will he be able to control his offense rather than scamper on defense against the biggest stars?
Threat level: Though he has traditionally been Nadal's whipping boy, Berdych can still challenge the King of Clay. He battled him tooth and nail on Rome's slow clay in 2012, falling in the quarterfinals after blowing the second set.
He played great that day, but Nadal was better.
Berdych can hit through the court, something he has attempted more in recent weeks. Few, if anyone, thought that Robin Soderling could spin straw into gold, but he turned his 1-6, 0-6 Rome disaster into the most historic French Open upset of the past decade.
Soderling was willing to hit everything hard and harder. If Berdych has his dream day, why not?
5. Andy Murray
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Stock: Up and down. Andy Murray announced his return to major contention by battling Novak Djokovic to a draw through the middle of the third set in the Australian Open. Since then, he has been sporadic, losing in the quarterfinals to Gilles Simon at Rotterdam and getting slammed by Croatian teenager Borna Coric, 6-1, 6-3. Not all has been perfect in Murray's march to the No. 3 ranking.
Pre-French Open outlook: He should like playing at Indian Wells and Miami and could really use this to kickstart the European clay-court tour in April. But will Murray invest his time on clay with Wimbledon always in the recesses of his mind and at the forefront of his priorities?
If all goes well, Murray can be a semifinal contender at any of the clay-court tournaments and perhaps top his Roland Garros semifinals berths in 2011 and 2014.
Threat level: The more adept clay-courters may have smoother footwork and movement, but Murray's strokes, patience and toughness are enough to beat almost anyone at Roland Garros. Last year, Murray nearly toppled Nadal at Rome and probably should have held his break advantage late in the third set, but he must be ready to run a mile past the finish line to defeat the King of Clay.
4. Roger Federer
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Stock: Down. Roger Federer is hoping to bring home a seventh trophy at Dubai, but it will take more than a title to shed his lackluster play at the Australian Open. As usual, tennis observers will cite his age and stamina when they question whether the 2009 French Open champion can give an encore performance.
Pre-French Open outlook: He has had plenty of rest, and Federer said he would not play Davis Cup matches for Switzerland next week, per The Associated Press. Federer must continue to serve and attack with his renowned intelligence and find his optimum rhythm at Indian Wells and Miami.
Threat level: It seems impossible for Federer to defeat Nadal in the late rounds at Roland Garros, as the Swiss Maestro is far removed from 2009 or even 2011. In the past two years at Roland Garros, he lost to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Ernests Gulbis—younger, stronger players who troubled him with power and energy.
But if someone else can step in and vanquish the Spanish champion, Federer might summon up that extra spirit for one more magical run on red clay.
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3. Kei Nishikori
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Stock: Up. The best thing about his rise over the past year is that Kei Nishikori is determined to keep climbing. Unlike the greater inconsistencies of his generation, Nishikori's only problem at the Australian Open was getting bludgeoned by Stanislas Wawrinka's best match of the year.
Since then, Nishikori has taken Memphis for the third consecutive year and is looking to notch Mexico onto his belt.
Pre-French Open outlook: Can Nishikori replicate the sensational clay-court season he had in 2014? He cracked the Spanish dynasty at Barcelona and controlled Nadal in the Madrid final until an unfortunate injury. His durability and conditioning have improved—most notably in big wins over Wawrinka and world No. 1 Djokovic at the U.S. Open.
Nishikori is for real.
Threat level: He clearly bothered Nadal at Madrid, carving out delicious angles and playing with a champion's ferocity. Nishikori has some of the best reflexes in tennis and an Agassi-like ability to take the ball early. He also has a personified example of inspiration in coach Michael Chang to remind him that improbable dreams like the 1989 French Open are possible realities.
2. Stanislas Wawrinka
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Stock: Up. It looks like Ironman Stan is back to his early-year form. He pushed Djokovic to five sets at Australia, and he defeated Berdych at Rotterdam. The rugged Swiss is strong and confident, and he carries enough big-match success to challenge Nadal at Roland Garros.
Pre-French Open outlook: He would love to do well at one of the two Masters tournaments in March—and make at least one appearance in a final. Monte Carlo will be difficult to defend, but there's no reason that he can't play strong at Madrid and Rome on his way to Roland Garros.
Last year's disappointing exit in the first round probably will not happen again.
Threat level: Clay was a surface that once suited Wawrinka—better in some ways than hard courts. He is a good-enough mover, and a surface like Monte Carlo allows him to wind up his more protracted ground strokes to deliver his powerful blasts. He's certainly a matchup who can give Nadal problems, and he's seen it all in their past matches.
Besides Djokovic, Wawrinka might be the player most mentally suited to clash with the bullish Nadal.
1. Novak Djokovic
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Stock: Up. With Djokovic, if he does experience a lull, it doesn't take him long to put together another streak. He's roared back as the best player in the world with Wimbledon and Australian Open titles. Djokovic is the favorite in almost every tournament he enters, except for a few pesky tournaments in April and May (more on that below).
Djokovic will likely be cemented in this spot as the No. 1 contender unless an injury or bizarre slump afflicts him. Expect him to be a co-favorite with Nadal.
Pre-French Open outlook: Djokovic is going to keep winning titles—at least a couple before the French Open. It would be most interesting to see him vie against Nadal at Monte Carlo or Rome once again. Those are the measuring sticks to gauge his sharpness.
Still, they won't mean anything unless he wins the French Open.
It's the ultimate prize that would enhance his legacy.
Threat level: Clay has become as comfortable as any surface for Djokovic. He's better there than on grass. But Nadal has been a mountain, and the climbing has always ended in frustration at Paris. Maybe Djokovic goes out and blasts everyone off the baseline with the perfect combination of offense and retrieving energy. Had he played during any other era, Djokovic would be esteemed as the perfect machine to win on clay.
He's never going to stop coming after Nadal until they are both in wheelchairs.
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