Australian Open 2015 Men's Semis: Wawrinka vs. Djokovic Preview and Prediction
When Stan Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic meet in the semifinals of the 2015 Australian Open, it will be a reversal of fortunes from their meeting the previous year.
This time, Wawrinka is the defending champ, and Djokovic is the player with less to lose. Despite being No. 1 and having four Australian Open titles, Djokovic is approaching this match as the challenger.
After his quarterfinals win over Milos Raonic, Djokovic told the BBC: "We played five-set matches in 2013 and 2014 Australian Open. I'm going to be ready for a fight."
Last year, Djokovic and Wawrinka met in the quarterfinals. Seeded No. 8, Wawrinka had never won a Grand Slam and was on a 14-match losing streak to Djokovic. Meanwhile, Djokovic had won the last three Australian Opens.
It was an epic, four-hour battle. The fifth set took 80 minutes and included a rain delay. After trading spectacular winners, Djokovic made two inexplicable unforced errors late in the match. Wawrinka took advantage and closed out the match. He went on to win his first Slam and has been a fixture in the top four since.
Can he thwart Djokovic again?
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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Djokovic leads the series 16-3. He's won 15 of the last 16. He last beat Wawrinka, 6-3, 6-0, at the ATP World Tour Finals.
Most of Djokovic's wins over Wawrinka have come in straight sets. They've played in just four five-set matches, with Djokovic winning all but one.
Djokovic's history at the Australian Open is far more important. He's won the tournament four times. Going into the 2014 quarterfinals match against Wawrinka, Djokovic was on a 25-match winning streak in Melbourne.
He's tough to top Down Under.
How Wawrinka Has Looked so Far at the Australian Open
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Wawrinka arrives at the semifinals after dropping just one set in the tournament. That was against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the fourth round.
His quarterfinal match against Kei Nishikori was the first time in the tournament that Wawrinka faced a seeded player. He defeated Nishikori 6-3, 6-4, 7(8)-6.
Wawrinka has produced a high number of unforced errors, including 61 in his match against Garcia-Lopez.
Despite a relatively smooth path to the semifinals, Wawrinka considers every match a challenge. He told reporters that Djokovic will be more of the same: “There is no easy match. For sure it’s going to be tough one, but so far I’m playing well and so happy to be back in the semifinals."
How Djokovic Has Looked so Far at the Australian Open
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Djokovic has yet to drop a set. However, his match against Fernando Verdasco was much closer than the scoreline suggests.
His quarterfinals contest against big-serving Milos Raonic wasn't much of a match at all. Raonic came into the match with 99 aces. But Djokovic, perhaps the best returner in the game, neutralized Raonic's biggest weapon.
Although just 3-of-11 on break-point chances, Djokovic kept the pressure on Raonic, who had 36 unforced errors. And not to be outdone, Djokovic had eight aces of his own.
Djokovic has kept his first-serve percentage high—above 70 in his last three matches—and his unforced errors relatively low. He's hitting far more winners than errors. He's playing clean, efficient tennis.
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The Biggest X-Factors
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Pressure is a powerful force in tennis. Which man will be feeling more of it? This will be the biggest X-factor in this match. A wild-swinging, chip-on-the-shoulder Wawrinka is a dangerous dude. Similarly, Djokovic in world-beater mode is unbeatable.
Never underestimate the Australian crowd. Will it be solidly behind Wawrinka as it was last year? If so, that could get under Djokovic's skin. As polite and playful as he is, he sometimes seems dismayed by the fact that he is not as beloved as Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal.
Wawrinka Will Win If...
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Wawrinka defeated Djokovic in the Aussie Open last year with a near-flawless performance. He blasted his backhand down the line, a low-percentage shot, with consistency.
His serve kept Djokovic on his heels.
Wawrinka needs to play the same type of match to continue his bid to repeat as champion. He can't get caught up in a rally-fest. The faster, more flexible Djokovic will win rallies most of the time.
Wawrinka has to play "rock 'em, sock 'em" tennis, smacking first serves in and putting away points with that ferocious backhand.
When he is hitting on those cylinders, he can beat anybody.
Djokovic Will Win If...
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Djokovic is a master at match management. He picks his chances and pounces on the slimmest of openings his opponent allows.
Djokovic has the better all-around game. He's more consistent. But Wawrinka has proved that if given an opening, he can knock the door down. Djokovic has to avoid mental lapses like the ones he had late in the match last year.
He also can't become passive. Going Green Bay Packers against Wawrinka will leave him thinking like Aaron Rodgers—about what could have been.
Prediction
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Expect a physical slugfest. Both men are playing well, but Djokovic is just playing a bit better. He's growing in confidence and has the revenge factor on his side.
It will not be easy. Wawrinka will bring out the hammer on his serve. But Djokovic just took a crash course in beating back hammering serves in his match with Raonic.
Compared to the Canadian's rockets, Wawrinka's firepower might seem minor. Nishikori provided Wawrinka with a hint of what it's like to put away a speedster. However, Nishikori was not in top form.
Djokovic will be.
He will take it in four sets.
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