Optimism Fading Fast for Roger Federer After Stunning 2015 Australian Open Upset

On Friday afternoon in Melbourne, expectations for Roger Federer's season decreased drastically when he shockingly lost to Andreas Seppi, the 46th-ranked player in the world, 6-4, 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 in the third round of the Australian Open. The upset snapped Federer's 10-match winning streak over Seppi.

It might be a bit unfair, and it's definitely exhausting, but as Federer continues his historic career at the age of 33, hope for his future is assessed by the masses on a match-by-match basis.

Before Federer took the court to face the veteran Italian Seppi, 2015 was looking like a bright year for him. After all, he was ranked No. 2 in the world and coming off a win in his first tournament of the year in Brisbane. That title included wins over Generation Next, Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov.

But everything changed in four sets Friday. As he walked off the court after Seppi passed him on his first match point, Federer looked more like a fading legend who hasn't won a major in nearly three years than a legitimate contender for his 18th major.

Bernat Armangue/Associated Press

Of course, he can be both, but there are certainly reasons for concern after Federer's surprisingly early exit Down Under. Despite the fact that he won one more point than Seppi in the match (145-144), the Swiss Maestro was clearly the lesser of the two players on this day. He served nine double faults, hit 55 unforced errors, made terrible decisions on the big points and had no pop on his forehand.

There was no clear reason for the lackluster performance—Federer didn't bring up an injury, but then again, he usually doesn't. Instead, he said it was just a bad day.

Rob Griffith/Associated Press

"I guess it was just an overall feeling I had today out on the court that I couldn't, you know, really get the whole game flowing," Federer told reporters in his post-match press conference, via the Australian Open website. "You know, was it backhand? Was it forehand? Was it serve? It was a bit of everything."

Bad days happen to all athletes, but at Federer's age, he's going to have a harder time getting past them, especially against inspired opponents. In this case, it was Seppi—a 30-year-old who has floated around the top 40 for most of his career—who played the match of his life and took advantage of Federer's flat play.

Seppi was particularly impressive in the tiebreakers in the second and fourth sets, staying calm and focused on his game despite the fact that Federer led in both cases. The Italian consistently used his powerful forehand to move Federer around and open up the court, and he managed to hit one of the best match-point winners in recent history:

But while Seppi deserves credit for pulling off the biggest win of his career, Jon Wertheim of Sports Illustrated explains why the focus should remain on the 17-time major champion:

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[T]ruly, this result was more about Federer losing than Seppi winning. By any measure, it was a rotten day at the office. His backhand lacked punch. His movement was sluggish. The shanks that were so prevalent in 2013 made an unwelcome reappearance. Leading in the second-set tiebreaker, Federer played a few loose points and quickly lost the set. After a valiant fightback to win the third set, Federer played another lousy tiebreaker—double-faulting away a lead—and it was arrivederci…

"

We've seen Federer triumph over his off days so often in his career (particularly at the Slams) that it's still disturbing to see him succumb to them. However, it's clearly something that we need to get more used to: Federer has now lost before the quarterfinals in four of his last seven majors.

It all began back in 2013 when, as the defending Wimbledon champion, he bowed out in a second-round upset to Sergiy Stakhovsky. He followed that up with a straight-sets loss to Tommy Robredo in the fourth round of the U.S. Open. He was better in the majors in 2014, making the semis of the Australian Open and U.S. Open and the final of Wimbledon, but he did lose in the fourth round of the French Open to Ernests Gulbis.

Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

This loss to Seppi was his first defeat before the semifinals at the Australian Open in 12 years.

Age has far from defeated Federer—his six ATP titles in the last 12 months more than disprove that theory—but it has changed him. His greatness will see more valleys than peaks as the clock continues to tick, and there's no permanent way to reverse that.

None of this means that Federer can't get hot for two weeks and add to his major tally, or that he's not still capable of taking down Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray on any given day. There will be more good moments for Federer and his fans to savor in the remainder of his career.

However, now it's officially time to taper the expectations surrounding Federer—it will make the victories even sweeter and the days like Friday much easier to stomach.