Tennis Players Who Will Struggle Most to Defend Their Current Ranking in 2015

With the 2014 season now over, it’s that time of year when tennis players embark on an all-too-brief period of rest and reflection.

For those who have enjoyed strong years, the latter will aid the former.

But, with tennis rankings based on an annual period (rather than a two-year period as in certain other sports, and as many tennis players have advocated), some may also have nagging doubts about defending their progress and points from this year.

It should be said that any player could conceivably struggle to defend their ranking points; after all, any player can be hindered by bad luck, a dip in form or an injury.

The latter two affected Andy Murray this year, of course, resulting in him dropping outside the Top 10 after a brilliant 2013.

Those who have perhaps overachieved this year—whether at a select tournament, on a particular surface, or throughout most of the year overall—will be at most risk in terms of slipping down the rankings in 2015.

Read on to see which players those may prove to be.

Stan Wawrinka

Aaron Favila/Associated Press

After spending almost the entirety of his career outside the Top 10, Stan Wawrinka enjoyed an exceptionally strong end to 2013, reaching the semi-finals at the U.S. Open and World Tour Finals.

As such, it came as almost no surprise when the Swiss’ brilliantly fluent game helped him win his debut Slam at the 2014 Australian Open.

It was the first time in five years that someone outside the Big Four had won a Slam; indeed, there is an argument to be made that, if anyone has replaced Andy Murray as a member of the Top Four, it is Wawrinka.

But, despite another strong showing at the ATP Finals earlier this month, his form for much of the year has actually been reasonably disappointing.

Why, then, would his ranking points be under threat next year?

Because, with a jackpot of 2,000 ranking points, any Grand Slam winner's is.

Hypothetically, should he reach the quarter-final—probably a par return at a Slam for any top player outside the Big Three—at the Australian Open, he would instantly lose 1,640 points.

Not accounting for other players’ gains or losses, or the few tournaments between now and then, such a loss would currently see him drop to No. 10.

That would only marginally improve to No. 9 should we change the hypothetical quarter-final to the semi-final.

Wawrinka has more than enough talent to maintain his long-awaited status as an elite player in 2015, but there is little doubt the Davis Cup winner has a struggle to maintain his ranking as a Top Four player.

If he can find more consistency throughout the year, however, it is far from beyond him.

Marin Cilic

Kirsty Wigglesworth/Associated Press

Following his drugs ban last year, Marin Cilic had shown signs of improvement under coach Goran Ivanisevic early in 2014, to the point the former Wimbledon winner was quoted in February as saying, “Our main goal is to be Top 10 by the end of the year,” as per James Buddell of atpworldtour.com.

But, unlike Wawrinka in Australia, few could have seen Cilic’s U.S. Open win on the cards.

It accounted for almost half of his 2014 ranking points alone and ensured he would automatically qualify for the ATP Finals, where he won only one set.

Like Wawrinka, then, he could find himself facing a massive drop following the U.S. Open in 2015.

He can, however, make up a bit of ground elsewhere; he failed to get past the round of 16 at any of the Masters 1000 tournaments, relying on wins at lesser tournaments in Moscow, Zagreb and Florida to boost his ranking.

He would also be expected to comfortably better his second-round outing from last year at the Australian Open in January, having reached the semi-final in 2010.

However, with Grigor Dimitrov likely to improve, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga unlikely to be as mediocre again and Juan Martin Del Potro’s return imminent, his top-10 place will undoubtedly be under threat, particularly in the second half of the year when he will have more points to defend.

David Ferrer

Kirsty Wigglesworth/Associated Press

The Spaniard ended last year ranked No. 3 in the world, a joint career-high, but has since slipped to No. 10.

That meant he narrowly failed to qualify for the Finals, although he did stand in for the injured Milos Raonic vs. Kei Nishikori.

David Ferrer will turn 33 in April and, unlike 33-year-old’s Roger Federer and Feliciano Lopez, he does not have a powerful game or serve to rely on.

At 5'9", his game has always been based around defence and intensity, which will only get harder to sustain the older he gets.

He played more tournaments (26) than any player in the Top 10, reaching at least the quarter-final at seven of the eight Masters 1000 tournaments he competed in.

Such consistency and dedication—admittedly a hallmark of his career—will be difficult to defend and replicate, particularly with multiple youngsters primed to take his place on a permanent basis.

He will not have too many Slam points to defend but, like Cilic, it would not be a surprise to see him lose his place in the Top 10 at some point next year.

Eugenie Bouchard

Joseph Nair/Associated Press

2013’s WTA Breakthrough Player of the Year.

2014’s WTA Most Improved Player of the Year.

Such accolades suggest the only way is up for Eugenie Bouchard, right?

Long-term, certainly. The 20-year-old’s achievements at this year’s Slams were almost freakishly good for someone of her age.

Along with Simona Halep, Sharada Iyer for TennisWorldUSA.org described Bouchard’s year to have “[conquered] and [wowed] the world with a freshness that has been uniquely invigorating, as it has been qualitatively promising.”

Indeed, her record of a final and two semi-finals was the most impressive on tour, and it earned her more than half of her total ranking points for the year.

That is largely because, in truth, she flattered to deceive elsewhere, only once surpassing the fourth-round at a Premier tournament (in Wuhan).

She also lost all three round-robin matches on her debut in the Finals earlier this month, winning only 11 games in the process, though it would be harsh to read too much into that as she had understandably run out of steam months ago.

She should return refreshed in 2015, with minor points to gain at most tournaments, but significantly major points to defend at the Slams.

As a player who seems to thrive on the big stage, you would not necessarily bet against her doing so.

But she might find herself having to take a step back in 2015, in order to take two forward thereafter.

Dominika Cibulkova

Shizuo Kambayashi/Associated Press

The Slovakian’s previous 10 Slams read: 1R, 3R, 2R, 2R, 3R, 1R, F, 3R, 3R, 1R.

No prizes available for those who can spot the anomaly, then.

The 25-year-old was one of three debut Slam finalists this year (alongside Halep and Bouchard) after a fine run as the 20th seed at the Australian Open—where she beat Maria Sharapova and Agnieszka Radwanska—ended in a runner-up placing after losing to the now-retired Li Na.

That run earned her 1,300 ranking points, almost half of her total for the year, and saw her rise to a career-high No. 10 in the world, where she still remains.

As such, like Wawrinka, she faces a major drop in the rankings unless she can repeat her feat in Australia.

Frankly, her record suggests she won’t.