NHL Predictions 2014: Preview and Picks for the Metropolitan Division
As a group, the NHL's latest realignment did not treat the eight members of the new Metropolitan Division very kindly in its first year.
New to the Eastern Conference, the Columbus Blue Jackets exceeded expectations by breaking through to the postseason for just the second time in the franchise's history, but elsewhere, the news was not so positive.
Sensing immediate trouble, the Philadelphia Flyers fired coach Peter Laviolette just three games into the regular season. The perennial Southeast Division champion Washington Capitals missed the playoffs for the first time in seven years. The New York Islanders crashed and burned after reaching the postseason during the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season. Their crosstown rivals, the Rangers, needed a late-season surge to recover from a horrifying start.
The Rangers' rebound took them all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, but by season's end, three other Metropolitan Division teams had jettisoned both their coaches and general managers in favor of fresh starts for 2014-15.
Will the changes to the Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes upset the hierarchy of the Metropolitan Division, or will the teams that have chosen to stay the course rule the day?
Here's what to expect from the NHL's most centralized division this year.
The Favorite: New York Rangers
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Despite a disastrous 2-6 start to their 2013-14 season under new head coach Alain Vigneault, the New York Rangers rebounded with a strong stretch run to finish second in the Metropolitan Division.
New York carried that momentum into the postseason, disposing of the Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins and Montreal Canadiens before falling to the Los Angeles Kings in the Stanley Cup Final.
The Rangers made some changes over the summer and are poised to seize the top spot in the Metropolitan Division in 2014-15.
Up front, New York lost winger Benoit Pouliot and center Brian Boyle to free agency, while center Brad Richards received a compliance buyout. Those forwards have been replaced by free agents Lee Stempniak, Matthew Lombardi and Tanner Glass.
The Rangers also won the Kevin Hayes sweepstakes, signing the 22-year-old Boston College graduate after he was unable to come to terms with the team that drafted him in the first round in 2010, the Chicago Blackhawks.
New York will start the season without first line center Derek Stepan, who's expected to miss four to six weeks after suffering a fractured fibula during preseason.
Coach Alain Vigneault told Tal Pinchevsky of NHL.com that he expects checking center Dominic Moore to pick up some of the slack while Stepan is sidelined, as he did during the 2014 playoffs. "I think he [Moore] is ready to assume a bigger role, and I know that's what he'd like," Vigneault said. "I do know that when we needed him last year to pick up some ice time he came through for us."
On the blue line, free agent Anton Stralman departed for the Tampa Bay Lightning. He was replaced with new signing Dan Boyle, who's expected to breathe life into a power play that was ranked 15th during the regular season with an 18.2 percent success rate but clicked at just 12.6 percent efficiency in the playoffs.
Of course, the Rangers' biggest strength lies in net, where world-class goaltender Henrik Lundqvist will be ably backed up by Cam Talbot for a second season.
The Challenger: Pittsburgh Penguins
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After winning their division for the past two seasons, expect to see a slight dip in performance from the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2014-15. The team is in transition after dismissing both general manager Ray Shero and head coach Dan Bylsma during the offseason.
New general manager Jim Rutherford and coach Mike Johnston aren't the only fresh faces in the Steel City. Up front, Patric Hornqvist and Nick Spaling came back from Nashville when James Neal was traded, while Steve Downie and Blake Comeau were added as free agents.
On defense, the free-agent signing of Christian Ehrhoff will help to fill the void left by the departed Brooks Orpik and Matt Niskanen.
As well as adjusting to a new coach and his system, the Penguins are also dealing with health issues surrounding key members of the team. According to Wes Crosby of NHL.com, Sidney Crosby and Chris Kunitz were less than 100 percent early in training camp, while Evgeni Malkin has yet to make a preseason appearance, and oft-injured Beau Bennett is expected to be out for six weeks (h/t CBS Sports) with a leg problem.
Further uncertainty surrounds 35-year-old Pascal Dupuis as he returns from ACL surgery and defenseman Kris Letang, who missed three months of action in 2013-14 after suffering a stroke in January. It all adds up to a lot of moving parts for Mike Johnston to try to massage into a cohesive team with a new identity.
The Penguins are too talented to drop precipitously in the standings, but don't expect to see them dominate as they have in recent regular seasons. Johnson's main focus will be on getting his team ready to make a serious playoff push.
The Bottom-Dweller: Carolina Hurricanes
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The Carolina Hurricanes have missed the playoffs for the last five seasons. That streak won't end in 2014-15.
The 'Canes made changes at the management level over the summer, promoting Ron Francis to general manager and hiring former Detroit Red Wings assistant coach Bill Peters to run their bench. But the team on the ice remains basically the same as the group that finished seventh in the Metropolitan Division last season, with 83 points—ahead of only the New York Islanders.
The Islanders look ready to bounce back from a terrible season, so Carolina will supplant them in the cellar this year.
Peters is a defensive specialist and has some good personnel to work with on the back end. Justin Faulk is blossoming into one of the league's premier defensemen, and new additions Andrej Sekera and Ron Hainsey were bright lights on the Carolina blue line last season.
The team's bigger problem was scoring goals: The Hurricanes ranked 24th overall last year and will be starting the season without one of their top forwards. Jordan Staal is sidelined until the new year after breaking his leg in a preseason game.
Carolina's biggest issue is in net, where former Conn Smythe trophy winner Cam Ward has been in steady decline over the past four seasons. In 2013-14, Ward played just 30 games and posted his worst numbers in nearly a decade—a 3.06 goals-against average and .898 save percentage.
Ward was outplayed last year by both his backups, Anton Khudobin and Justin Peters. Peters moved on to the Washington Capitals as a free agent over the summer, so after playing well in a career-high 36 games last season, Khudobin might find himself carrying a big share of the workload.
Even a star turn from the backup won't be enough to keep Carolina out of the Metropolitan basement this season.
Best Old Rivalry: Sidney Crosby vs. Alex Ovechkin
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With all due respect to the classic rivalries between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers or the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils, the most interesting battle in the Metropolitan Division this season should be the continued fight for supremacy between 27-year-old Sidney Crosby and 29-year-old Alexander Ovechkin.
Now entering their 10th NHL seasons, Crosby has amassed a Stanley Cup, two Olympic gold medals, two scoring titles and one Rocket Richard Trophy. He's also a two-time Hart Trophy winner as the NHL's most valuable player, picking up the award for the second time last season.
Ovechkin has never been past the second round of the playoffs but has three Hart Trophies of his own, plus one scoring title and four Rocket Richard trophies.
Crosby and Ovechkin are the two most decorated players of their generation, yet each enters the new season with something to prove.
Ovechkin is being asked to bring a renewed commitment to defense after finishing third-last in the league with a minus-35 last season, despite scoring a league-leading 51 goals. New coach Barry Trotz has been charged with improving Ovechkin's two-way game without hampering his scoring touch, with an eye toward getting the Washington Capitals back into the playoff hunt.
Crosby will be looking to prove that he's 100 percent healthy after dealing with a wrist problem that had affected him since March. He'll be looking to lead his Penguins back to the Stanley Cup Final after their disappointing second-round collapse against the New York Rangers.
Just as it's been for the last decade, Crosby and Ovechkin will be the lightning rods for attention with their respective franchises and will continue to be compared to each other.
Best New Rivalry: New York Rangers-Columbus Blue Jackets
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The Columbus Blue Jackets lit the fuse for an on-ice rivalry with the Pittsburgh Penguins during their first-round playoff series last spring, but the rising Jackets are linked even more tightly to the New York Rangers thanks to two blockbuster trades.
Though ex-Ranger Marian Gaborik has moved on from Columbus, former Blueshirts Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, Fedor Tyutin and Tim Erixon all remain key parts of the Blue Jackets roster. Dubinsky has taken on an especially important leadership role and demonstrated his commitment to the team by signing a six-year contract extension last July.
Over at Madison Square Garden, former Blue Jacket Derick Brassard signed a new five-year, $25 million deal over the summer and has blossomed into a solid offensive threat at center, while John Moore continues to grow as a defenseman. Rick Nash, of course, remains the primary target for the wrath of Blue Jackets fans after his trade demands led to his departure for the Big Apple two summers ago.
The cross-pollination between the Rangers and Blue Jackets has created an intriguing rivalry that should intensify as the two teams get used to seeing each other with increased frequency as members of the same division.
Best Line: Brock Nelson, John Tavares and Kyle Okposo of the New York Islanders
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If the Metropolitan Division has one defining characteristic, it's the explosive offensive power of its teams' top lines. From top to bottom, every squad's first line can light the lamp with impressive regularity.
In 2014-15, the group that's set to impress is none other than Brock Nelson, John Tavares and Kyle Okposo of the New York Islanders.
Arthur Staple of Newsday is reporting that the spot on Tavares' left wing has been a revolving door through preseason, but Nelson is a logical fit for the role. The 22-year-old had a solid rookie season. His good size and good hands would be a terrific complement to Tavares, who's on his way to becoming one of the best players in the league, and Okposo, who led the Islanders with 69 points in his breakout 2013-14 campaign.
To be considered the best line in the Metropolitan Division, these young Islanders will need to outplay some impressive competition, such as:
- New York Rangers: Chris Kreider, Derek Stepan, Rick Nash
- Pittsburgh Penguins: Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby, Pascal Dupuis
- Philadelphia Flyers: Wayne Simmonds, Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek
- Washington Capitals: Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Eric Fehr
Best Defense Pairing: Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi of the New York Rangers
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Workhorses throughout the 2014 playoffs, expect to see the New York Rangers' top defensive pairing of Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi take another step forward this season.
Stolen away from Montreal as part of 2009's Scott Gomez trade, 25-year-old McDonagh has become one of the steadiest shutdown defensemen in the league. He has also shown the leadership skills to get himself mentioned as a front-runner to become New York's next captain.
McDonagh's partner, 30-year-old Dan Girardi, was an undrafted player who has become one of the NHL's most dependable hitters and top shot-blockers.
Both Girardi and McDonagh are durable, reliable defensemen who proved during the playoffs that they can handle massive workloads. Another year of coaching from the defensive-minded Vigneault should only improve their games.
Other pairs to watch in the division this year include new Washington Capitals Brooks Orpik and Matt Niskanen and the strong emerging pair of James Wisniewski and Ryan Murray in Columbus.
Best Goalie: Henrik Lundqvist
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In 2013-14, Cory Schneider of the New Jersey Devils boasted the best goals-against average in the Metropolitan Division (1.97), while Anton Khudobin of Carolina led the division with a .926 save percentage.
Those are impressive numbers, but you should expect to see Henrik Lundqvist beat them this season.
Before dialing in his game during the playoffs, Lundqvist had a bit of a bumpy ride during 2013-14. Talk of a contract extension proved distracting until a new deal was signed in early December, and alarms were sounded when the goaltender missed two games with an undisclosed injury during the Rangers' rough start in October.
Lundqvist raised his game and was a critical contributor during New York's playoff run. Now that he's been close enough to smell the Stanley Cup, expect to see Lundqvist bring his A-game right out of the gate in 2014-15.
Projected 2014-15 Standings
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1. New York Rangers: The Rangers will build off their playoff success to win the Metropolitan Division.
2. Pittsburgh Penguins: A team in transition, the Penguins will concentrate on redefining themselves with an eye toward playoff success.
3. Washington Capitals: The Capitals will become tougher to play against thanks to a deeper lineup and the positive influence of coach Barry Trotz, who will forge a strong connection with enigmatic Alex Ovechkin.
4. New York Islanders: Better goaltending, better depth and a breakout season from John Tavares will bring the Islanders back into the playoff conversation.
5. Columbus Blue Jackets: Though Sergei Bobrovsky will continue to steal games, injury issues will prevent Columbus from taking another step forward after a strong 2013-14 campaign.
6. Philadelphia Flyers: The Flyers' challenging salary-cap situation will prevent new general manager Ron Hextall from adding much-needed defensive depth, ultimately killing Philadelphia's playoff chances.
7. New Jersey Devils: Ageless Jaromir Jagr will continue to dazzle, but the rest of New Jersey's motley lineup won't follow suit. The Devils will miss the playoffs for an unprecedented third consecutive season.
8. Carolina Hurricanes: Though the defense will improve, the team will still struggle to score goals, leaving them in the losing column more often than not. Expect to see Ron Francis start making major personnel moves once Carolina is out of playoff contention by Christmas.
