See that 3" piece of black vulcanized rubber behind you, Carey? That is one of the many goals you let in during the playoffs.
Many people were picking the Montreal Canadiens as the team to beat in the East this year. To do that, you had to ignore one basic truth: rookie goalies are like the Biblical parable of the seed that falls on rocky soil--not deep-rooted enough to take the heat of adversity, and they wilt under the intense pressure of the playoffs.
There are a couple notable exceptions to this: Conn Smythe winners Cam Ward in 2006 and Jean-Sebastien Giguere in 2002 were untested. Before that, you have to go back to Patrick Roy.
And for the record, Price will probably still be a good goaltender. Many guys bounce back from the type of collapse he had: five games of his eleven games he a 4.00+ GAA and was with under a .900 save percentage.
He did have two shutouts and three other games in which he gave up fewer than three goals, and that is something to build on. But he looked positively shaky in today's game, and gave up three goals in less than three minutes.
There are similar things being overlooked by Detroit fans. Chris Osgood only won a Cup because he had the best post-Original Six league team ever surrounding him. This is not a guy who has the focus on every shot it takes to win a Cup, and he has proven it time and again in the more balanced league he now finds himself in, where one cheap goal can make the difference.
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Speaking of lack of focus, many people were also picking the Sharks to win it all this year. They were so impressive in March, not losing a game in regulation, and they are deep and skilled.
But as a Sharks' fan I can tell you their struggles are not surprising; their own skill makes them complacent. They still have a chance, but you cannot give away two games every series and expect to win, and they have a pattern of being smooth, not gritty. As the saying goes, "will beats, skill."
Calgary and Anaheim were maybe also predictable early exits since they are undisciplined teams. Too many penalties against playoff caliber teams usually will cost you.
However, who would have thought the Ducks would have been that reckless? And Calgary got away with those penalties because the Sharks have shown the lack of fundamentals on the power play to be successful in the post-season two years in a row now.
So when you pick your winners next year, don't have the Sharks' lack of fundamentals. Remembering a couple key things can make you look so much smarter:
- Look no further than the team with a top tier goaltender--no other teams have a reasonable chance.
- Defense wins championships. This is true in any sport, so look for a steady blue line and a team that blocks shots.
- Perimeter and finesse players fail while net-crashers excel. This is why guys like Tomas Holmstrom do so well and guys like Marian Hossa do not, even though Hossa always outperforms Holmstrom during the regular season.
- Teams that play disciplined hockey, both within their system and by avoiding penalties, give themselves the best chance to win.
- Look at how teams put out effort when they are leading in the early part of the season. Do they try to coast to the finish line? If they do, those bad habits will rear their ugly heads in the playoffs (see San Jose).
- The West is the best. The only reason to bet on the East is because we wear each other down, as does our geography: we actually have to travel three time zones and they never leave their one zone.
Okay, I threw that last one on for controversy--while it is true, the extra hurdles we have to leap make it a moot point for picking a champion.
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3 months ago
The West does normally keep a strangle hold on the Cup. Nice insight into the reasons why though. I have to admit i never chalked it up to travel. Figured it was more payroll
from 3 months ago
Actually, I am saying travel is the only reason we DON'T have a stranglehold on the Cup. If my memory serves me correctly, since 2000 the East (Devils twice, Lightning, Hurricanes) has won more than the West (Avs, Wings, Ducks), while four of five before then were won by the West (Detroit twice, Dallas and Colorado once each compared with New Jersey once). But I don't think anyone but the Devils would have won in those ten years if the West had not been worn down by better competition and more travel.
from 3 months ago
Great math--I meant in those TWELVE years.
3 months ago
nice article. I personally fell the Pittsburgh Penguins meet 99% of your reasons. They have an amazing goalie, ALL their lines can score, they are young and want to play, they block shots, very disciplined (with exception to Thursday nights game), and their fan base is unbelievable. I feel the pens will win tomorrow then beat philly in 6, on the other hand stars will beat SJ then also have an amazing series with Detroit and beat them in 7. Pens and Stars in Cup finals with the Pens winning in 7 at home. The pens have come a long way since last year and the future only looks better. Look for them to win atleast 2 cups in the next 5 years...
from 3 months ago
Astute. Before the playoffs, I considered Fleury a potential weakness, but to this point he has not proven himself to be.
3 months ago
"Chris Osgood only won a Cup because he had the best post-Original Six league team ever surrounding him. "
Did you even watch the Wings that year? I'm guessing no.
from 3 months ago
Oh, yeah, I did not. Just because someone does not see things the way you do you think they did not watch? Let's see: Yzerman, Federov, Murphy, Lidstrom, McCarty, Lapointe, Larionov, Holmstrom, Shanahan, Maltby, Kozlov, Borwn, Knuble, Draper...yeah, I guess I don't know what I'm talking about, come to think of it, that is not that much talent.
3 months ago
Don't forget the other members of the Russian Unit, Slava Fetisov and Vlad Konstantinov, and the emotional drive that Konstantinov's accident created . Talent and commitment.
I was worried about the Avs when they started blowing leads in the Minnesota series. Hopefully the embarrassment will be motivation for next year. 0-8 vs. the Wings?!
3 months ago
I am not saying there wasn't talent, there was loads of it, I am just saying that just because there was a lot of talent doesn't and shouldn't be the reason not to give a goaltender who played solidly credit and push his contributions aside.
from 3 months ago
Okay, that is a reasonable argument; had I known that was what you were disputing from the beginning, I might have responded more along these lines:
I think there was less pressure on him because he had a greater margin for error BECAUSE of the talent around him. The issue is that he has never shown the ability to anchor a team (and in fact has been a liability on some playoff teams), and that is necessary these days to win the Cup.
Thanks for your comments and insights, and I hope to see writing from you soon, especially since we need all the hockey fans we can get. (I wrote about the NFL in the off-season and got ten times the "reads" I get on NHL PLAYOFF articles!)
3 months ago
I would just like to comment that goaltending matters, but it is also the great defensive play in front of the goaltender that makes a team a champion. Yes Chris Osgood cannot "anchor a team" but if he provides solid goaltending for the Red Wings that is all they need. If you look at the shot differentials between the wings and thier opponents Osgood only needs to make 20 or so saves a night which is not that crazy. When you have the defensive corps the goaltender doesnt have to stand on his head.
from 3 months ago
I agree. If there is any team that can win the Cup with Osgood, it's Detroit (like they did in '97). But I think it is a weakness for them. Having just watched Turco and Nabby stand on their heads for an entire game, no way Osgood keeps making saves into a fourth overtime, even if because of the guys in front of him he faces about half as many. It's going to be an interesting series.
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