Draft Picks Are Still the Key

As I'm watching the NCAA D1 Hockey National Championship game (Notre Dame down 3-1) I ran across this quote from Blues President John Davidson, which I thought related very well to the Jackets situation and really got me thinking (as you can no doubt tell by my lengthy post)

Here's Davidson.

 

"The power play needs help, there's no question," Davidson said. "But the power play needs help because we need more puck-moving defensemen, and we need a centermen who's a playmaker.

"We haven't had either one of those here in two years. That's a fact of life. You can run out and get a (free agent), but it's going to cost you $6 million. And they're not going to want to come here. We looked at them all last summer, but they don't want to come to a team that's last in the league. That's how it works. That's why I keep saying, 'We have to develop our own and be patient doing it.' If not, who are you going to bring in? Some second- or third-tier guy that you've got to overpay?"

Davidson makes a good point here. In Unrestricted Free Agency you always overpay. Heck he overpayed for Kariya last offseason - its the name of the game. However as he points out, most of the time you don't build the core of your team through UFA - you just compliment it.

Looking at teams, the successful formula seems to be the draft, then trades, and then compliment with UFAs.

Look at the conteders this season.

 

Detroit—Lindstrom, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Holstrom, Kronwall, Franzen, and Filpula are all draft picks. Traded for Chelios way back when and Brad Stuart. They picked up Rafalksi as a UFA to compliment that group and Hasek was a UFA.

 

Pittsburgh (or what I call the luckiest team in the NHL)—Crosby, Malkin, Malone, Whitney, Fleury, Letang—all picks. Traded for Hossa. UFAs Sykora, Gonchar, Hossa, Sydor.

 

Washington (second luckiest)—Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Fehr, Eminger, and Green are alll picks. Made trades for Huet, Fedorov, Cooke. UFAs were Nylander and Poti.

 

San Jose—Marleau, Cheechoo, Michalek, Carle, Pavelski, Setoguchi, Clowe, Erhhoff—all picks. Thornton and now Campbell, the big trades. Roenick and Grier UFA signings.

 

Montreal—Koviu, Ryder, Higgins, Plekanec, Latendresse, Kostistyn (both of em), Markov, Komisarek, Price all came through the draft. Big trade with Kovalev. Brisbois UFA.

 

Minnesota—Gaborik, Koivu, Bouchard, Belanger, Sheppard, Pouliot, Shultz, Burns, Harding were all picks. Signed Demitra, Rolston, Parrish, and Johnson as UFAs.

 

 

Nashville—Weber, Legwand, Erat, Radulov, Tootoo, Zidlicky, Hamhuis, Suter, Klein—all picks. Sullivan from a trade. Arnott, Dumont, Sullivan, and De Vries all UFAs.

Now of course some teams buck the rule. Philly made a lot of moves this offseason and are a grab bag of just about everything, but Mike Richards, a draft pick, is their heart and soul. Boston has a key UFAs Chara and Savard leading that team. Same with the Rangers who have UFA signing Gomez leading their team in points, but have a lot more picks in their lineup with Dubinsky, Girardi, Staal, Calahan, Prucha, Dawes, Rozival, Tyutin and of course Lundqvist than they used to.

The good news is that some of the picks we did make are now finally becoming our core.

 

 

Picks—Nash, Leclaire, Klelsa, and Z were our most effective players last season. Russell, Boll, Fritsche, Tollefsen, and Murray made significant contributions. Lindstrom, Pineault, Brassard, Picard, Sestito all saw time with the big club.

Here were the players that we traded for on last year's roster.

 

Traded—Chimera, Modin, Fedorov, Tarnstrom, Glencross, Rome, Wilson, Konopka—combined those players scored 96 points.

UFAs—Foote, Peca, Hejda, Novotny combined for 84 points.

Nash and Z alone had 130 points.

So what's my point?

There really aren't any shortcuts towards buidling a contender...your core typically comes from the draft, but you must hit on some draft picks, especially your high ones.

Our problem is we've drafted like shit under MacLean's watch. Instead of taking cornerstone players like Dion Phaneuf, we took Nik Zherdev. Instead of Anze Kopitar, we took Gilbert Brule. We have yet to really unearth any late-round gems although perhaps Steve Mason or Kris Russell could be a couple of those guys down the road.

You also must have competent coaching to develop these picks. Our AHL team is making progress which is a good sign. We have a coach in Hitch who knows how to work younger players into the NHL when they are ready. Boll, Murray, and Russell all saw significant time under Hitch.

The good news—early signs of drafting under Howson look very promising however.

2007 first-round pick Jakub Voracek is absolutely tearing up the QMJHL. He racked up 101 points in 53 games which was good for fourth in league scoring, even though he played substantially less games than two of the three above him. He also has 16 points in 11 playoff games which is good for eigth in scoring.

Second-round pick Stephan Legein is also ripping it up in the OHL playoffs. He is tied for third in scoring with 17 points in 10 games played.

Then you have defensemen Will Weber who was a second-round pick as well, who according to reports I've read on various prospect boards, stock is actually on the rise. He's playing in the USHL and is bound for Maimi of OH next year. He's got 18 points in 46 games, with a whopping 137 PIMS.

From there is Maxim Mayorov, of whom is a highly touted Russian propsect that Howson is currently trying in North America to continue his development.

Of course these picks need to do something at the NHL level before you can say anything but the start is promising.

That brings me to the number six overall pick this year. Can we really afford to deal it when past and current history shows that this is where your team is built? If it was a weak draft, I may be more forgiving. But this is said to be the best draft since 2003, when the following players went top 20:

1. Pittsburgh (from Florida): Marc-Andre Fleury G Cape Breton (QMJHL)
2. Carolina: Eric Staal C Peterborough (OHL)
3. Florida (from Pittsburgh): Nathan Horton C Oshawa (OHL)
4. Columbus: Nikolai Zherdev F CSKA (Russia)
5. Buffalo: Thomas Vanek LW Minnesota (WCHA)
6. San Jose: Milan Michalek RW Budejovice (Cze.)
7. Nashville: Ryan Suter D U.S. U-18
8. Atlanta: Braydon Coburn D Portland (WHL)
9. Calgary: Dion Phaneuf D Red Deer (WHL)
10. Montreal: Andrei Kostitsyn W CSKA (Russia)
11. Philadelphia (from Phoenix): Jeff Carter C Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
12. N.Y. Rangers: Hugh Jessiman RW Dartmouth (ECAC)
13. Los Angeles: Dustin Brown RW Guelph (OHL)
14. Chicago: Brent Seabrook D Lethbridge (WHL)
15. N.Y. Islanders: Robert Nilsson C/W Leksand (SWE)
16. San Jose (from Boston): Steve Bernier RW Moncton (QMJHL)
17. New Jersey (from Edmonton): Zach Parise C North Dakota (WCHA)
18. Washington: Eric Fehr RW Brandon (WHL)
19. Anaheim: Ryan Getzlaf C Calgary (WHL)
20. Minnesota: Brent Burns RW Brampton (OHL)

That list is sick. There is maybe one bust in there...Hugh Jessiman... one! I'd say we got the worst player in the top six, and with a 60 point season last year, that's saying something.

This is also why Howson can't move guys like Brassard, Voracek, Russell, or Mason. They are the high-end skill players this team needs more of...they become your core. Couple that with the fact we seem to finally be giving players time to develop properly, and we may be finally on to something here.

 

Voracek was held in juniors another year; Brassard a year in Syracuse; Mason to start in AHL next year. The only '?' is Russell, hindsight being 20/20 he probably should have played in the AHL last year but we desperately needed his skill set.

But there is no denying the team needs a massive upgrade in skill now. I want to win now as much as anyone, which is why something has to give right?

I'm all for packaging Colorado's pick for some immediate help, and I think there are lots of assets that we could also potentially package (Z, Brule, Picard, Fritsche, OKT, to name a few younger assets), but I'm leaning towards keeping that top-six pick unless we get one helluva of an offer we just can't refuse.

 

I know in one breath I'm saying hold onto picks, so why am I suggesting trading former picks...aren't they part of the core? The reality of the situation is that Rick Nash and Pascal Leclaire are our only real core players currently on this roster. Nobody else on the roster is there yet, and may not ever be there, thus they become expendable.

We know that OKT/Fritsche/Brule were rumored to be part of the offer for Richards, so that tells me Howson doesn't view them as "core" players. Besides Nash and Leclaire, we know Brassard, Voracek, Mason, Russell, and Z were on the untouchable list, which tells me he sees potential for them to develop into "core" guys.

 

My personal opionion is that Z is no longer on that list after his performance, or lack there of, down the stretch, but that could be a reach on my part.

 

 

Trades are the next route for Howson. This is an area he hasn't really been tested yet. I'm not really counting the Glencross or Platt deals, or the unloads of Foote and Feds. Sure there is some room for applause and criticism there, but I'm withholding judgement until he really puts his butt out there and makes a big commitment. He needs a couple of big moves pre-free agency that shows this team is serious about contending next year.

Howson also has to do a much better job than the previous regime in identifying and bringing in unrestricted free agents that can compliment this roster. I don't think the UFAs that we'll attract will be the cream of the crop, but we need skill guys who compete and can compliment the overall structure of what we are building here.

 

Hejda was a nice start on a budget. Peca was decent for a late-offseason grab after Svitov bolted, but his real test is this summer.

It's certainly a balancing act. From drafting, to trades, to free agency. From youth, to experience, to cost. All the pieces need to fit. It's Howson's job to make us competitive now, without sacraficing being competitive tomorrow. He has a lot of tools to work with this summer to accomplish it.

What do you all think—trade the sixth pick? If so, what would you expect in return? Keep in mind the caliber of players that went in 2003—you are potentially giving that up if you move the pick.