Rafael Nadal vs. Roger Federer: Prediction for Cincinnati Masters 2013 Clash
The rankings may not fully reflect it, but the general feeling among most tennis fans seems to be that Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are still the sport's two biggest stars. Novak Djokovic may be the No. 1 player in the world, and Andy Murray is coming on strong as well, but it's tough to match the popularity of Rafa and Fed.
With that in mind, it comes as no surprise that there is so much anticipation leading up to a Nadal vs. Federer clash. While there is no Grand Slam tournament on slate this week, all eyes will be on Cincinnati, Ohio, where Nadal and Federer are set to meet in the quarterfinals of the Western & Southern Open, according to Sky Sports.
Nadal booked his spot in the quarters by outlasting Grigor Dimitrov in a difficult three-set affair, while Federer did the same against Tommy Haas. Although Nadal and Federer aren't at the top of their respective games right now, they will almost certainly raise their level of play on Friday. Here is a breakdown of what to expect from their match in Cincinnati.
Nadal's Career Dominance Over Federer
While Federer may very well be the greatest player in tennis history by virtue of his 17 Grand Slam titles, one player he has never really been able to solve is Nadal. It is no secret that the Spaniard has always had his Swiss counterpart's number, as Nadal holds a 20-10 career mark against Federer. That includes two victories over Federer this year: Nadal took him out in the finals of the Rome Masters on clay and also defeated him on a hard court in the quarters at Indian Wells.
Nadal and Federer have met 10 times in Grand Slam tournaments, with Rafa holding an 8-2 advantage. That certainly skews things in Nadal's favor. But taking only non-Grand Slam tournaments into account, things are much closer, as Nadal is just 12-8 against Federer. Prior to Friday's matchup, Nadal and Federer have played each other prior to the semifinals of a tournament just three times. That is a testament to how dominant they have been over the years.
Nadal is 2-1 in those matches, and he will look to make it 3-1 on Friday. Nadal is 7-3 against Federer in their past 10 matches dating back to 2010, but Fed has won two of the past five, so he hasn't exactly been listless against Rafa. If nothing else, fans are hoping this will be a competitive match. Nadal and Federer have had some incredible matches at Grand Slams, but their recent matches in other tournaments have been fairly one-sided. In fact, their past four non-Grand Slam matches have ended in straight sets. It remains to be seen if that will once again be the case, but Nadal clearly holds the advantage.
Even on Hard Courts
Despite Nadal's penchant for frustrating and defeating Federer, the two superstars are even as can be on hard courts. They have met on hard courts 12 times over the years, and each man holds a 6-6 record over the other. Nadal's overall dominance against Federer has much to do with his prowess on clay, as Rafa is the best clay-court player of all time. Nadal is 13-2 against Federer on the red stuff, which means Federer is 8-7 against him on all other surfaces. It doesn't change the fact that Nadal has been the better player in head-to-head situations, but clay has definitely been a contributing factor.
Federer is among the greatest hard-court players of all time, as he has nine Grand Slam titles between the Australian Open and U.S. Open. Clay is obviously Nadal's forte, as evidenced by his unprecedented eight French Open titles, but he won the Australian Open in 2009 and followed it up with a U.S. Open title in 2010. Nadal's movement gives him a huge advantage over anyone else on clay, but his wicked spin is what makes him so dangerous on hard courts.
Fed, on the other hand, has such a great all-around game that hard courts really seem to suit him. It's always fun to see Nadal and Federer play each other, but hard courts are definitely the fairest surface. Nadal is leaps and bounds better on clay, while Federer certainly has an advantage on grass. Both players are equally good on hard courts, however, so it simply comes down to who plays better tennis. That means the better player is guaranteed to win when they meet in Cincinnati.
Recent Struggles
Nadal and Federer have had such a stranglehold on men's tennis in recent years that it feels like a shock to the system any time one of them is eliminated from a tournament. From the 2005 French Open through the 2010 U.S. Open, either Nadal or Federer won 21 of the 23 Grand Slams that were played, with Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro coming away with one title apiece. Things have been much more balanced since then, though. Nadal has won three Grand Slams, and Federer has won one. Djokovic has five to his credit, and Murray has a pair as well.
Nadal and Federer have not played poorly over the past few years, but they certainly seem to be mortal now. This year has been particularly trying for both of them. Nadal did win the French Open, and he has a 48-3 record with eight titles to his credit, but things haven't come easily for him. Most notably, Rafa was ousted by Steve Darcis in the first round at Wimbledon, which came as a colossal shock following his French Open title.
Federer has had an even tougher go of it, with just one title and an un-Federer-like 30-10 mark. Fed was easily defeated by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the French Open quarterfinals, and he was shockingly taken out by Sergiy Stakhovsky in the second round at Wimbledon. Since that loss to Stakhovsky, Federer has lost to the likes of Federico Delbonis and Daniel Brands as well.
Prediction
Neither man is in top form right now, but they are both hoping to reach that level prior to the U.S. Open. It wouldn't be wise to write off Federer completely, but he has been playing such average tennis as of late that it is difficult to envision him knocking off Nadal. Because of that, Rafa should be able to take this one in straight sets.
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