Roger Federer: Odds Stacked Against Federer in 2012

After dominating the men's side of things for the better part of eight years, Roger Federer got a big-time reality check in 2011.

Don't get me wrong, Federer was still good, going 64-12 and making his presence felt at each of the season's four Grand Slams. He just wasn't Roger Federer good, which is to say he wasn't amazing.

The point has been made over and over again that we've probably seen the last of Federer's greatness. Father Time has robbed him of his elite talents, and he's not giving them back any time soon. All tennis players are subject to this fate after hitting the age of 30, even the greatest the game has ever seen.

But since we're on the verge of the 2012 Australian Open, the unofficial start of the 2012 season, I suppose we can allow ourselves to hope that we might catch a few glimpses of Federer's old self here and there. Perhaps he can get hot and win his 17th Grand Slam, a feat he nearly accomplished on a couple of occasions in 2011.

Yes, I think we can hope. There's certainly no harm in it.

But hoping for greatness and expecting greatness are two different things. Whatever you do, don't expect greatness from Federer in 2012.

Once again, Federer's age complicates things. We haven't seen a 30-year-old win a Grand Slam in the men's bracket since Andre Agassi won the Australian Open in 2003. There are also certain adjustments players have to make after they turn 30, most of which are detailed in a recent New York Times blog post.

But even if Federer was still a young, strapping man in his mid-20's, he wouldn't be a lock in any Grand Slam against his current competition.

Novak Djokovic did many, many amazing things in 2011, including pulling off a clutch comeback against Federer at the US Open. I'd bet my bottom dollar on him taking home at least two Grand Slams in 2012.

If he can stay healthy (fingers crossed), Rafael Nadal will be his typical brilliant self as well. If nothing else, we know to count everyone else out when we get to the French Open. That tournament is Nadal's until further notice.

Beyond those two, this could be the year Andy Murray finally lives up to the hype, and you always have to keep an eye on usual suspects like David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

On a good day, I'll wager Federer is still better than 95 percent of the players in the field. We're not going to see him get bounced in the early rounds of any tournament, and whoever beats him is not going to beat him easily.

But the harder Federer has to scrap, the harder it's going to be for him to stay healthy and in shape. Doing either is not as easy as it once was, and Federer will be 31 before we know it.

We know that the clock is ticking on Federer's career. What we don't know is if his time as one of the best players in the game has already run out.

That's what we're going to find out.