Jair Jurrjens and Gavin Floyd: Who Would Fit Better in Boston?

As 2012 approaches there is still a familiar concern in Red Sox Nation. 

"We need pitching."

It's not unfounded either. The Red Sox do need pitching. They realistically need to add one more bullpen arm and one more starting pitcher by Opening Day. While it seems like the list of available arms has thinned out across baseball this winter, it really hasn't shrunk that much. 

The Red Sox were never really going to delve into the high priced free agent market to pursue names like Yu Darvish, C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle. They also have not seemed as open to emptying their minor league system to trade for a starter. Yes they were in on Gio Gonzalez, but eventually the cost in prospects got too high for them. 

Boston was never part of the Trevor Cahill or Mat Latos talks either. 

Matt Garza of the Chicago Cubs is still on the market, but it's beginning to look as if the cost in prospects for Garza may end up in the same range as the cost for Gio Gonzalez, which could leave Boston once again on the sidelines.

There is a tier of potentially available starters just below the levels of Latos or the levels of a Gonzalez or a Garza.

Enter Jair Jurrjens of the Atlanta Braves and Gavin Floyd of the Chicago White Sox. Two very different pitchers who would represent two very different types of investments for the Red Sox. 

Gavin Floyd was the fourth overall pick of the 2001 MLB Amateur Draft. Joe Mauer and Mark Prior were among those picked ahead of him. Yankee first baseman Mark Teixeira was picked right after him at number five. 

Floyd was picked by Philadelphia, but was dealt to Chicago along with another promising young pitcher by the name of Gio Gonzalez to acquire Freddy Garcia in December of 2006 (funny how these things are all interwoven right?).

In Chicago Floyd has been good. Not great, but good. Floyd is a big, linebacker sized right handed pitcher. He's 28 years old, 6'6" and 240 pounds. Since assuming a regular starting role in 2008, Floyd has been consistent. He's not going to become the ace of your staff, but he also seems unlikely to implode every five days.

What Floyd does do is go out and put in the innings. He has had over 30 starts each of the last four seasons. His earned run average has been between his low of 3.84 in 2008 and a high of 4.37 in 2011. His WHIP ratio was a high of 1.372 in 2010 and a low of 1.162 in 2011. He will strike out some batters, but not with especially noteworthy numbers. His career best was 163 K's in 193 innings pitched in 2009.

If the Red Sox were to acquire Gavin Floyd it would be at a cost below that of what the A's were asking for Gio Gonzalez. After all, Floyd is already 28. Teams know what they're getting with him. There's not a hypothetical "ceiling" to Floyd's career. He is what he is. Floyd will make $7 million in 2012 and has a team option for 2013 that would pay him $9.5 million if it were picked up.

Were the Red Sox to acquire Floyd and if Floyd were to perform to expectations, then they could have him for two years at a total cost of $16.5 million. That's not a bad price for a dependable starting pitcher. Remember, the Red Sox aren't out there looking for an "ace" type of guy. Sure if they thought they could get one at a reasonable price they'd do it in a heartbeat, but the key to Boston's success is the health and performance of the top three existing starters, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.

If Floyd is the steady, dependable known quantity, then Jair Jurrjens is the "role of the dice".

Jurrjens is a 25 year old possible top of the rotation type of pitcher. He is on Atlanta who acquired him from the Detroit Tigers in a deal in which Atlanta sent Edgar Renteria to Detroit and got Jurrjens in return in October of 2007. 

If you've followed baseball at all over the past 20 years or so then you know that as a general rule, Atlanta seems to have a knack for developing young pitching talent. Jurrjens does not appear to be an exception to that rule. 

Jurrjens was inserted into Atlanta's rotation as a 22 year old in 2008 and paid immediate dividends. He started 31 games, went 13-10 with an earned run average of 3.68 and a WHIP of 1.370. Not eye-popping numbers, but he was also only 22. 

The next season brought more reason for optimism about Jurrjens' future. He started 34 games, went 14-10, but lowered his earned run average down to 2.60 and his WHIP down to 1.214. Jurrjens isn't a big strikeout pitcher so he wasn't being thought of as a dominant type of starting pitcher, but he looked to he headed toward a career as a very good number two or three starter.

Then the injuries started to pop up. A pulled hamstring caused him to miss six weeks early in the 2010 season. He returned from that injury only to suffer a torn meniscus in his right knee and was shut down for the latter part of the 2010 season.

Last year Jurrjens appeared to be on his way to a very good season. At the end of August he had a 13-6 record, an earned run average of 2.96 and a WHIP ratio of 1.224, all respectable numbers. This in spite of missing two weeks in early August with a sore knee, the same right knee he had surgery on the previous season.

He came back from that injury to make two more starts in late August, but was then shut down for September with a sore knee. That's where the concerns lie. Jurrjens' knee issues have not only caused him to miss starts, they also may be contributing to a drop off in velocity on his fastball as well. For a pitcher who is already somewhat hittable, that's a major concern. For a team thinking of acquiring such a pitcher, it should be of paramount concern.

Jurrjens is younger than Floyd and he's also cheaper than Floyd. He's not a free agent until 2014 and last season he earned only $3.25 million. Those are all nice, but his low cost is useless if he's on the disabled list, or even worse, trying to pitch through discomfort and getting hit hard in his starts.

The Red Sox have had no shortage of injury plagued starting pitchers the last few seasons. That shouldn't stop them from acquiring Jurrjens for the right price, but it may be a factor in determining what exactly that "right price" is. Jurrjens may be a better long term solution than Floyd, but he also could be a bigger disappointment.