2011 Bowl Predictions: Advocare V100 Independence Bowl Preview

The Independence Bowl has always been a bowl game that usually features the lower echelon BCS conferences.  But even though the teams may not look to be the best matchup, this game is usually very competitive and very close.

This year’s participants have each had an up-and-down year, but they look evenly matched and ready to play a tight ballgame.

Missouri got off to a rough start after Blaine Gabbert left school and was a first-round NFL Draft pick.  They were having an inconsistent season, with a 3-4 start and two of the three wins were over Miami (Ohio) and FCS Western Illinois. 

Then things started to come together. 

They found their groove and won four of the last five to wrap up the regular season, with the only loss to Baylor on the road by just three.  They’ve won three in a row and have plenty of momentum heading to Shreveport. 

The same cannot be said for their opponent.

North Carolina was in the discussion as a possible ACC Championship dark horse when the season began, and they started the year looking like they might be able to fulfill those predictions.  The Tar Heels won five of their first six games, with the only loss being on the road at Georgia Tech. 

Then the wheels fell off the train.  UNC lost four of their next five games and had to beat archrival Duke just to finish with a winning season.  That pretty much guaranteed that interim head coach Everett Withers would not get the permanent job.  That was confirmed when Larry Fedora was hired to take over the program for 2012.

So, can Missouri finish the season with four consecutive wins and carry some major momentum into 2012, or will North Carolina get a win to make a big first impression for their new head coach?  Read on for the preview of the 2011 Advocare Independence Bowl.

Missouri offense vs. North Carolina defense

The Tigers in the early part of the year were struggling to find consistent offense with a new QB under center.  But as the season has gone on, he has gotten much, much better.  James Franklin is the man who runs the attack, and he is becoming one of the better dual threat QBs in the nation. 

He ended the regular season 15th in the nation in total offense, and the Tigers ended up perfectly balanced on offense, averaging 236 yards rushing and passing.  The main man running the ball, however, is Henry Josey, who averaged almost 117 yards on the ground, which was 12th nationally. 

The Tiger rushing attack plays into the strength of the UNC defense, giving up just over 106 yards on the ground.  The problem is that they were very bad against the pass, allowing almost 250 yards through the air.  Watch for Missouri to try and loosen up the running lanes by throwing early and exploiting the weakness of the Tar Heels defense.

Edge: Missouri

North Carolina offense vs. Missouri defense

While it seems that the North Carolina offense has struggled at times, finishing just 52nd nationally in total offense this season at just under 400 yards per game, they were efficient in scoring points. They scored under 21 points just twice and scored 28 or more seven times. 

Bryn Renner runs the show and he’s been productive as well, ending the regular season in the Top 10 in the nation in passing efficiency.  His main target is Dwight Jones, who has just over 93 receiving yards per game.  Giovanni Bernard is the main ball carrier with over 101 rushing yards per game.  They could have some success against the Tigers defense, which has been in the middle of the pack nationwide in most of the defensive categories. 

The one that has been a big problem has been pass defense. Missouri finished 91st this year, giving up almost 250 yards per game through the air. The Tar Heels need to exploit that weakness to produce and keep up with the Tigers offense.

Edge: North Carolina

Special Teams

Both teams are fairly even in this department, but there is a player of note on each side.  For North Carolina, T. J. Thorpe was one of the better kickoff returners this year, averaging over 27 yards per return and a TD.  He has the ability to be a game changer in front of the country. 

Missouri P Trey Barrow has been just as good this year, finishing ninth in the nation, averaging more than 45 yards per kick.  He’ll try and keep the Tar Heels in check and pinned in their own end.

Edge: Even

Coaching

Gary Pinkel has turned Missouri into a consistent winner, posting the seventh straight winning season and bowl game.  This, however, was the first time in the last seven years that Missouri did not finish first or second in the Big 12 North. 

He will be a big asset as the Tigers move into the SEC next season.  Everett Withers was put into the unenviable interim head coach position, taking over after Butch Davis was fired.  He was able to lead UNC to a postseason appearance, but this will be his final game as the head man. 

Larry Fedora will take over the program after this game, while Withers will join Urban Meyer’s staff at Ohio State.

Edge: Missouri

This and That

Missouri is no stranger to Shreveport, as this will be their third appearance in the Independence Bowl in the past nine seasons.  North Carolina will make its first ever trip to this bowl game.  Both teams are about the same distance from northwestern Louisiana.  The advantage goes to the team that has been here before.

Edge: Missouri

So, what will happen in the 2011 Advocare Independence Bowl?

This has been a very close game over the past decade.  Eight of the last 10 contests have been decided by seven points or less.  This year has a chance to be close, but North Carolina must be able to move the football to keep up with the balanced Missouri attack. 

The Tigers should be able to exploit the Tar Heels defense and while it won’t be a blowout, they should be able to keep them at arm's length throughout the evening.

Line: Missouri by four.

The Sports Mac Prediction: Missouri 34, North Carolina 23