EPL Week 18: Hot-to-Trot Tips for Every Game

After their October slump, Chelsea have strung together some impressive performances, though with two  recent draws on the road, they'll be wanting to get back to their winning ways in front of the home crowd. It's not as if the Blues have been struggling lately though; they haven't been defeated in their last five encounters—but they will be wanting to take the three points and keep their season on the right track.

And at home, to a Fulham side fresh off a 5-0 drubbing to United, they should be far too good. Chelsea have scored in every single one of their home games this year, and every home games has gone over 2.5 goals in total.

Whilst they have allowed a goal in all but one game at home this year, Fulham have only managed to score four goals in total away from home this year, and haven't won on the road in nearly two months.

Expect Chelsea to be too strong, and expect them to win well in this one. I like the value in a clean sheet from Petr Cech against a Fulham side struggling for away goals. If the Blues can contain Dempsey, they'll take this one to nil.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Chelsea to win by 2+ goals

Chelsea to win to Nil

Chelsea vs. Fulham

Newcastle United—after going undefeated for their first 11 matches—now find themselves on the end of a six-game streak without a win, and on the road to a Bolton side that's on their longest winning streak of the year.

Okay, so whilst that last bit might be a little tongue in cheek, Bolton did find a victory on the road, albeit against fellow relegation battlers Blackburn, and in doing so, moved off the bottom of the Premier League ladder.

Whilst Bolton have failed to score in a third of their home games this season, Newcastle have shown their ability to allow goals at the back all season—letting in three last week against West Bromwich and four two weeks back against Norwich City. For the season, they've conceded goals in 75 percent of their matches. And although Bolton isn't in the same class as the two sides mentioned above, they do look like they'll have the ability to get at least a single goal in this one.

Also back United to score in this one, as Bolton have conceded goals at home in all but one of their matches. Demba Ba has been in stunning form this year and after scoring eight of Newcastle's last ten goals, back him to get on the score sheet in this one too.

If we get the Bolton that romped Stoke, then we're in for some fun. If we get the Bolton we've gotten for the rest of the season, expect them to put up some resistance, but probably fall in the end. I'm a little unsure, so I'm steering clear of the result, and going with some other options.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Both teams to score

Demba Ba to score at any time

Arsenal vs. Wolverhampton

When the team you're coming up against scores five away goals, and you have to play them at home the next week—it's not going to be fun. And when that team is Manchester United and home is a quiet little ground called Old Trafford, it's going to be even harder.

Welcome to the life of Wigan Athletic.

Can you see United dropping points to Wigan? Neither can I.

Recent draws against Chelsea and Liverpool have shown their ability to play fortress football as I like to call it, but that was at home, and at Old Trafford against a red-hot United is a different story.

The likes of Rooney and Nani have been too strong this year, and will be too strong for the Wigan defense. And should they score an early one, Wigan will certainly struggle to bridge the cap, scoring only six away goals for the season, with five of them in their last three matches.

Is Wigan on the up? Yes. But it's only because they went so far down in that run of eight straight defeats that they are on the up.

And United, who scored first in all but one of their matches this year, will be too strong and too classy for Wigan and won't drop any points here.

If you like some exotics, take Nani or Wayne Rooney to be the first goal scorer. That's not an official tip—you just get that one for free because it's Christmas.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Manchester United to score first

Manchester United HT Result // Manchester United FT Result

Bolton vs. Newcastle

West Bromwich do fly under the radar a little for me, and with recent road wins against Blackburn and Newcastle, they've got some good momentum coming into their home clash with Manchester City.

And at home, I tend to favor most teams, as they seem to pull something special out for the fans, but not WBA. Scoring 63 percent of their goals on the road, and taking 67 percent of their points at home, they've got to get it right in front of the faithful, otherwise they're going to be on the end of an embarassing one here.

To some extent, West Brom could push City, as they could score early, and make them chase—something City have only done once all season.

However, when you've scored in every game this year, are averaging more than 3 goals per game on the road, and sit atop the table, you're still going to get the points against a solid, but not complete West Brom side who have conceded goals in their last nine matches.

And City just loves sides that concede goals.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Manchester City to win

Over 2.5 goals for the game (88 percent of City games and 78 percent of West Brom games have gone over 2.5 for the season)

Liverpool vs. Blackburn

I genuinely thought QPR would get the job done last week, but after going down to Sunderland, I'm a little more hesitant to back them this week, especially on the road to a Swansea side that was unlucky not to take at least a point from their last two matches.

At home, it's all Swansea for me. They've conceded two goals at home this year—yes, two—with one being to Manchester United and the other being an own goal. And against a Rangers side that's only scored 17 goals for the year, they're going to be too strong.

Swansea have taken 83 percent of their points at home, and with QPR failing to trouble the scorer in a third of their games this year, they'll be too good at the back to let this one slip.

Seeing I can't see Rangers scoring, the question remains as to whether I can see Swansea scoring more than two. Answer? No.

Hot-to-trot tips

Swansea to win to Nil

Under 2.5 goals for the game

Sunderland vs. Everton

I might not have given Sunderland enough credit in the past few weeks—winning two games I tipped they would lose. My bad on that one.

Sure, there might not be a whole lot of goals throughout the year, but you can't argue with recent weeks, as they got the points against Blackburn and West Brom, and pushed Tottenham for the entire match.

Sunderland, are playing well.

Everton, now there's another story. Just because you can play well, doesn't mean you're always going to. And if I've been hard on Sunderland, I've been harder on Everton, who are not delivering good enough results this year.

They've scored only 17 goals for the year, and have failed to score on nearly a third of their matches. They were lucky in recent weeks at home, and the fact they're not in front of the faithful this week might just be enough for Sunderland to roll on for another week.

Yeah, I'm on board this train now.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Sunderland to win

Under 3.5 goals for the game (you can go under 2.5—I'm just a wuss)

West Bromwich Albion vs. Manchester City

West Bromwich do fly under the radar a little for me, and with recent road wins against Blackburn and Newcastle, they've got some good momentum coming into their home clash with Manchester City.

And at home, I tend to favor most teams, as they seem to pull something special out for the fans, but not WBA. Scoring 63 percent of their goals on the road, and taking 67 percent of their points at home, they've got to get it right in front of the faithful, otherwise they're going to be on the end of an embarassing one here.

To some extent, West Brom could push City, as they could score early, and make them chase—something City have only done once all season.

However, when you've scored in every game this year, are averaging more than 3 goals per game on the road, and sit atop the table, you're still going to get the points against a solid, but not complete West Brom side who have conceded goals in their last nine matches.

And City just loves sides that concede goals.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Manchester City to win

Over 2.5 goals for the game (88 percent of City games and 78 percent of West Brom games have gone over 2.5 for the season)

Stoke vs. Aston Villa

I think this could possibly be the game of the round this week.

It's not going to be a goal fest, but you will see two evenly matched football teams play hard, quality football, and that's what makes it great.

Despite a 3-0 loss to City, Stoke come back home to a solid home record and take on a Villa side coming off two home losses. I just get the feeling that Stoke won't mind being back in front of the faithful and could churn out a solid home performance, like they have done all season.

With both sides averaging just over 1 goal scored per game, and each failing to score on over a third of their seperate encounters, it could be a low-scoring affair.

Villa haven't beaten a quality side all year and are yet to really prove themselves on the road against a solid team. I think they'll struggle, albeit a hunch, and the red and white improve on their solid home record and remain in the top half of the table.

Jonathon Walters is the equal highest goal scorer for stoke, netting all his goals at home, and will most likely be the penalty taker should the moment arise. Back him to continue his goal scoring feats in front of his home crowd.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Stoke to win

Jonathon Walters to score at any time

Swansea vs. Queens Park Rangers

I genuinely thought QPR would get the job done last week, but after going down to Sunderland, I'm a little more hesitant to back them this week, especially on the road to a Swansea side that was unlucky not to take at least a point from their last two matches.

At home, it's all Swansea for me. They've conceded two goals at home this year—yes, two—with one being to Manchester United and the other being an own goal. And against a Rangers side that's only scored 17 goals for the year, they're going to be too strong.

Swansea have taken 83 percent of their points at home, and with QPR failing to trouble the scorer in a third of their games this year, they'll be too good at the back to let this one slip.

Seeing I can't see Rangers scoring, the question remains as to whether I can see Swansea scoring more than two. Answer? No.

Hot-to-trot tips

Swansea to win to Nil

Under 2.5 goals for the game

Norwich City vs. Tottenham Hotspur

If it's goals you want, statistically, you should get them in this one. Let me run you through some things just for a minute.

Tottenham have had over 2.5 goals in 88 percent of their away games, and are averaging nearly two goals per game away from home—failing to score on only one occasion.

Norwich have had over 2.5 goals in 75 percent of their home games, averaging 2.0 goals for and 1.5 goals against for every home game—failing to score also on only one occasion.

They've also never held a clean sheet all year, and it's this that troubles me if I'm a Norwich fan because there's some teams, you just can't let score. Both Manchester sides, Chelsea, and in 2011, I'd put Tottenham in that list. They simply have too much firepower in the likes of Adebayor, Defoe, van de Vaart and Bale for defenses to contain them.

Tottenham have scored in every game since their week one loss to United, and despite Norwich scoring a goal in their last ten and being at home, I think the Hotspur will have too much firepower to contain.

I think there'll be goals, and I think Tottenham will score most of them.

And for the guys that need some value, try the final goal to be scored the final 15 minutes of play. Tottenham have scored 15 goals in the last half hour, and Norwich have conceded 16—nearly half of each team's respective totals for the year.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Tottenham to win

Over 2.5 goals for the game

Final goal to be scored in the 76-90 minutes