Carlos Beltran in 2012 Should Equal Albert Pujols' 2011 Production for the Cards

The St. Louis Cardinals might be better off having Carlos Beltran instead of Albert Pujols for the 2012 season.

Beltran should, if he remains healthy, equal Pujols' 2011 production.

Yes, 32-year-old Albert Pujols is a Hall of Famer, while the 35-year-old Beltran is a very good player.  But if each comes close to replicating his 2011 season, the Cardinals should lose little offensively and gain a little defensively.

In 2011, Pujols’ offensive production, while still excellent, declined.  He batted .299/.366/.541 with 37 home runs and 99 RBI.

Beltran, who appeared in 98 games with the New York Mets and 44 with the San Francisco Giants, batted a combined .300/.385/.551 with 22 home runs and 84 RBI.

The Cardinals' new right fielder’s on base percentage and slugging averages were slightly better than Pujols’.

The following compares some of the two stars’ modern statistics for 2011:

PLAYER     WAR    RAR    oWAR   dWAR
A. Pujols      5.40    51.00    4.50       0.90
C. Beltran    4.40    43.00    5.00      -0.60

WAR is Wins Above Replacement   RAR is Runs Above Replacement Level

The results are close, especially when one considers that Pujols appeared in a few more games than Beltran, and the latter was hurt part of the year, limiting many of his appearances to pinch-hitting.

Beltran has been hampered by injuries, which is a tremendous negative. After playing in 161 games in 2008, he dropped to 81 games in 2009 and a mere 64 games in 2010.

Beltran, who will play right field with Lance Berkman moving to first base, had a better oWAR. His –0.60 dWAR in the outfield was slightly better to Berkman’s –0.07.

There is no attempt to rationalize that the Cardinals are better off with Beltran that with Pujols, but many believe that Pujols’ 2011 season is indicative of the Albert Pujols of the next few years. They may be right, but at the age of 32, Pujols is young enough to produce more great seasons.

When he was 32, Babe Ruth hit 60 home runs. He followed that by leading the league in home runs the next four seasons.

Pujols has been compared to Lou Gehrig.  At the age of 32, Gehrig had a less productive season that his norm, which is similar to Pujols’ 2011 season. In 1935, Gehrig batted .329/..466/.583 with 30 home runs and 119 RBIs. The previous season, Gehrig had won the Triple Crown.

For his first 10 seasons, Albert Pujols belongs is the same category as Ruth and Gehrig. One may be playing with fire if one thinks Albert Pujols won’t have a great 2012 season.