Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts: Can Indy Score Huge AFC South Upset?

The Houston Texans may be 10-4 heading into this game and the Indianapolis Colts just 1-13, however, an upset in this game is quite realistic. According to the Texans official Twitter page, Houston is once again without WR Andre Johnson: "Kubiak: Andre (Johnson) will not play (at Indy). He's out."

That being said, it just opens the window of opportunity for the Colts that much more. So, can Indy steal one and pull off the Week 16 AFC South upset?

Well, let's break it all down.

Colts Offense vs. Texans Defense

This is where Indianapolis needs to minimize the most damage. Houston's defense ranks No. 2 against the pass and No. 5 against the rush, whereas the Colts rank just No. 30 in pass offense and No. 23 in rush offense.

Here, much like last week, the Colts must rely on the ground game. It's not only their offensive strength, but it's also the Texans defensive weakness (although it's still quite good). What's also favoring Indy is the use of multiple RBs.

Whether it's Donald Brown, Joseph Addai or Delone Carter, Houston must be prepared for all three. And based on his recent production, QB Dan Orlovsky has improved under center. Running the ball early and often will be the key for Indy while setting up the passing game but using it sparingly.

The Colts do have some solid WRs, but expect Houston to relentlessly blitz to stop the run and get QB pressure. We're going to see a good mixture of zone and man coverages behind the blitz, as confusing Orlovsky can force Indy to remain one-dimensional, thus favoring Houston.

Houston Offense vs. Colts Defense

With Andre Johnson out, as mentioned above, it does make life a little easier for the Colts defense. Unfortunately, it still ranks No. 24 against the pass and No. 28 against the run, allowing a total of 385 yards per game.

As for Houston, rookie QB TJ Yates has stepped in nicely but did have that rookie moment in throwing two picks and fumbling once more against Carolina. That in mind, expect a lot of blitzing from the Colts.

Much like Houston's plan to shut down Indy's offense, the Colts must do the same. And it will be for the same reasons—stop the run and get QB pressure. Houston has the No. 2 ranked rushing offense, so it's obvious that RBs Arian Foster and Ben Tate will be used quite often.

Now, regardless of their success, the Colts will be able to slow the Houston passing attack even more. Yates still needs to prove himself on a weekly basis, and none of the Texans WRs can consistently beat single coverage.

Therefore, the Colts need to be aware of the screens, draws and check downs to the RBs. Limiting their production the most is vital for Indianapolis.

Special Teams

Houston will win the field position battle as it has the much better return game. The Colts rank dead last in average yards per punt and kickoff return, while the Texans are no worse than average (top 10 on kickoff returns).

So, when the Colts score, not allowing a big return thereafter will be imperative. And when Houston scores, responding with a solid return is needed.

All this being said, the Texans have kicker Neil Rackers to Indy's Adam Vinatieri. With the kicker who has four Super Bowl rings (Vinatieri), Indianapolis has that advantage.

Prediction

It's a lot closer of a game than expected, as the Colts have much confidence entering the game. With Houston's injuries, the game is rather even on both sides of the ball.

That said, the Texans are better when it comes to the return game, however, Indianapolis has the more reliable kicker. In the end, it will come down to a drive where the Colts need to get into field-goal range for the win.

Can Dan Orlovsky get them in position against one of the NFL's best defenses?

Texans 23, Colts 21

Follow John Rozum on Twitter @ Sportswriter27