Week 16 NFL Picks: Gauging the Least Likely Upset Scenarios

To say that the 2011 NFL season has been filled will drama and pandemonium wouldn't do justice to the meaning of drama and pandemonium. It's just been that kind of year.

Who would have though that the Rams would upset the Saints, or the Jaguars win over the Ravens? Well, Week 16 is slated to be intense and exciting. Unfortunately, for the following three teams the upset won't happen.

Cleveland Browns (at Ravens)

The Jaguars were able to upset the Ravens because they had a solid defense to complement RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Needless to say, Cleveland lacks all that and more.

Not to mention Baltimore is 7-0 at home whereas Cleveland is just 1-6 on the road. Also, the Browns have arguably the NFL's worst rush defense (allowing almost 150 per game) and Ravens RB Ray Rice went over 200 yards in their first meeting.

Expect that to happen again in round two and also anticipate more dominance by Baltimore's defense. The Browns have no receiving targets or ground game, therefore it will be an even more lopsided affair than the last.

Ravens over Browns

St. Louis Rams (at Steelers)

One-upping the Browns-Ravens game is the Rams-Steelers game. Or as I like to call it, "The Jerome Bettis Bowl." But I digress.

St. Louis comes in at 2-12 with no rush defense and an offense that literally has no idea how to move the ball. Sure, RB Steven Jackson is still a beast but alone he will get shutdown by The Steel Curtain. Jackson is all the Rams offense has because WR Brandon Lloyd is a solid No. 2 target at best, not a No. 1 guy.

Pittsburgh will run the ball early and often to wear down the Rams' front seven. Shortly thereafter WR Mike Wallace will burn their DBs down field for easy points. St. Louis may rank No. 8 in pass defense, but that's only because no one bothers to throw against them since running the ball is so easy.

Steelers over Rams

Chicago Bears (at Packers)

The Chicago Bears have simply been hit by the injury bug during the second half of this season and it's unquestionably ruining their playoff chances.

Having already lost to Green Bay at home when healthy, playing on the road with backups won't make life any easier. Green Bay will shred their already vulnerable pass defense, build a lead, then run the ball most of the second half.

When on offense, Chicago's only hope is to establish some sort of ground game as the Packers are susceptible to the run (as proven by Kansas City). That being said however, Green Bay's defense is very opportunistic and will force turnovers whether via a pick or forced fumble.

Although Devin Hester is to Chicago's advantage on special teams, rookie Randall Cobb for Green Bay has been just as dangerous this season.

Packers over Bears

Follow John Rozum on Twitter @ Sportswriter27