2011 Poinsettia Bowl Predictions: TCU vs. Louisiana Tech Preview

I don’t think this is really the sunset TCU thought it would ride into.

The Horned Frogs played their final season in the Mountain West this year, winning the conference championship and positioning themselves to once again crash the BCS party and play in a post-New Year’s bowl game. Instead, they get to take on fledgling Louisiana Tech in a pre-Christmas, mid-week matchup that is about as anticipated as holiday fruitcake.

No. 15 TCU will take on Louisiana Tech in the 2011 San Diego Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. The game kicks off at 8 p.m. on Wednesday, Dec. 21 at Qualcomm Stadium. TCU is presently a 10-point favorite, and the total is set at 55.5.

For TCU this is a far cry from the glory they experienced the past two seasons. In 2009 they played Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl, and last year they toppled No. 4 Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. Now they are back in the Poinsettia Bowl for the third time in six years.

The public, obviously, loves the Horned Frogs in this matchup. Nearly 80 percent of all action on this game is coming in on TCU, who is heading to the Big East next season.

But Louisiana Tech is no pushover. This team has won seven straight games, both straight up and against the spread. Outside of a blowout loss to Hawaii, Tech has been an incredibly tough out this year. Their three other losses came by just two points to Southern Miss (Conference USA champions), by one point to Houston (No. 20 team in the country and CUSA runner-up) and by six points in overtime to Mississippi State.

The Bulldogs possess a mediocre offense (No. 49 in total offense and No. 42 scoring) and mediocre defense (No. 55 in total defense and No. 34 in scoring). However, their resolve has been unwavering this year. The most impressive thing about their performance is that they have played five of their last seven games on the road and eight of their 12 games this season have been outside of Ruston.

TCU got off to a slow start this season, losing to Baylor in its opener and SMU in nonconference play. However, the Horned Frogs were able to tear through an especially weak Mountain West—which was playing its first season without BYU and Utah—and enter this game having won seven straight games.

The Horned Frogs have been a losing wager at the window this season (6-6 ATS), but they are still a veteran team that has won four of five bowl games since 2006.

2011 Poinsettia Bowl College Football Odds

TCU opened as one of the largest bowl favorites on the board, laying 13 points, according to college football odds (via Doc's Sports). But they are presently available at -10.5.

You can play the Horned Frogs on the moneyline for -400 or take the Bulldogs at +300.

The total for this game has held firm at 55.5.

2011 Poinsettia Bowl Betting Trends

The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five nonconference games.

The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.

The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on grass.

The Bulldogs are 13-3 ATS against teams with winning records.

The Horned Frogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in December.

The Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

The Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five against the WAC.

The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six nonconference games.

The Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games.

2011 Poinsettia Bowl Predictions

I think the Bulldogs will put up a fight in this game. TCU can’t have much motivation and can’t be too excited about playing in this lackluster game after back-to-back BCS paydays. The Horned Frogs are saying all the right things leading into this contest, but I don’t see how they can get up for this game when they were hoping for a third straight BCS trip.

Louisiana Tech is scrappy and still has something to prove. It has played against some top competition and is just a few plays away from being 10-2 or 11-1.

Last year this team went into Auburn and put up a fight and also went toe-to-toe with No. 5 Boise State (45-35) and No. 9 LSU (24-16) before losing. The Bulldogs have the motivational edge, and that is usually critical in these early bowl games.

2011 Poinsettia Bowl Free Pick: Take ‘Under’ 55.5 Louisiana Tech vs. TCU

Robert Ferringo is a college football handicapper, and you can check him out here.