NFL Playoff Predictions: Division Winners Guaranteed to Be One-and-Done

As sad as it is for all of us that the NFL regular season is coming to an end in just two weeks, the postseason race always amps up the intensity.

This has been a strange year with the best teams stubbing their toes against inferior competition, which will make predicting anything that happens difficult. 

The biggest problem that we have with determining which teams will have good playoff showings  and those that don't have a chance of saving face, is schedule and momentum. 

We all get fooled by momentum heading into the playoffs.

You can point to the Green Bay Packers winning the Super Bowl last year on a wave of momentum. But going back to 2009, the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints lost five straight games combined heading into the postseason. 

So which division winners will fool us into thinking that they are something special?

(Note: These are teams that I think will win their division at this moment, not teams that have already clinched their division.)

San Francisco 49ers: NFC West Champions

There are two problems that I have with the 49ers: Alex Smith and the secondary. 

Smith had a nice string of games in October and November, but he has been exposed against Baltimore and Arizona. He has to be able to make plays for this team to have a chance at winning a playoff game, much less multiple ones.

The secondary has been a problem all season, but because the front seven has been so dominant all the other problems were masked. 

But in the postseason, quarterback play is king. The 49ers don't have stability at the position, and the defense has been susceptible to the pass all year. 

Dallas Cowboys: Lead NFC East By One Game

The Cowboys are a team that I can see getting blown out in the wild card round, or playing in the NFC championship game. But the more that you watch from them, the harder it becomes to take them seriously as contenders. 

I think they will end up winning the division, though that is more a product of how bad everyone else in the division is than a testament to how good they have been. 

They are going to be the No. 4 seed and will likely end up playing the Detroit Lions or Atlanta Falcons. Both of those teams are better than the Cowboys, and will be too much for them to handle in a playoff game. 

Denver Broncos: Lead AFC West By One Game

I know that with Tebow all things are possible, but there has to be some limit to how many fourth quarter comebacks he has in him. And as we saw against the Patriots, his run-first mentality is not going to work against better teams. 

The Broncos should take solace in the fact that they are even in the playoff race at this point because they were expected—by me at least—to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. 

That may not be what Broncos fans want to hear, but I would be willing to bet that if you caught them in an honest moment they would say the same thing. 

Houston Texans: AFC South Champions

The Texans finally have the team they needed to win a division championship, and possibly a playoff game. They were able to do the former thanks to a great defense and running game combination, plus Matt Schaub's understated performance under center. 

But with Schaub out for the year and T.J. Yates or Jeff Garcia looking like the signal callers come playoff time, the hopes of winning a playoff game have decreased exponentially. 

They are strong enough on defense and have a good enough running game that, with the right matchup, they can overcome their shortcomings at quarterback. But there are too many "ifs" to bank on this team in January. 

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