NFL: One Reason To Doubt Success Of Every Contender

There isn't much more you can say in praising the Green Bay Packers.  The team has won 18 games in a row dating back to last season and is on its way to becoming just the third team to go undefeated in the regular season.

But just like the Patriots team that succumbed to the New York Giants in the Super Bowl, this team does have flaws.  Its defense is quite weak and its offensive line struggles at times.

The defense has given up 23 or more points in seven of its 13 games this season, and over 30 on three of those occasions.  The offense, though, has managed to pull the team through every time. 

While their offense is great, it's been helped from their opponent's defense, or lack thereof. 

Of the 16 games on their schedule, eight of them are against teams with pass defenses that rank 20th or worse.  The best rated pass defense they've taken on has actually come against the 2-10 St. Louis Rams.

What will happen if the Packers have to play against a great defense like Baltimore or Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl?  Could a team like San Francisco take them down?  Considering they don't give up a lot of points and run the ball effectively, you never know.

The Packers are undoubtedly a strong team, but considering they've won seven of their games by ten points or less, there's no guarantee they won't be the first team to go undefeated in a regular season but miss the Super Bowl. 

New York Jets: The Running Game

You would think that the obvious pick would be Mark Sanchez, who is completing under 60 percent of his passes.  But the fact is when the weather gets colder, it seems Sanchez comes through in the clutch as evidenced by his four road playoff victories in two seasons.

The biggest problem I see with the Jets is the fact that their running game is nowhere near as dominant as it has been the past two years, in which they made two trips to the AFC Championship.

It makes the life of Mark Sanchez much easier against the AFC's best teams when they have a running game to eat up big minutes and get those important first downs.  Ranked 22nd in the league, the Jets need to run more if they have any hope of competing for a Super Bowl.

Detroit Lions: Self-Control and Maturity

This one is pretty much a no-brainer.

Since head coach Jim Schwartz went after San Francisco 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh over an "aggressive" hand shake, the Lions whole team has seemingly unraveled.

They are just 3-4 since that game, though they control their own fate for an NFC playoff berth.  Though the Lions may indeed get to their first postseason in over a decade, it may be a short-lived triumph if the team cannot mature and fast.

Their inexcusable display of poor sportsmanship in their 31-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints was seen by the whole country and there was no Ndamukong Suh to blame it on.  The team had three offensive pass interference calls in that game, including a player shoving an official. 

If the Lions can get their heads straight, this is a team that has the ability to make some noise.  What would be very interesting is if they and the 49ers meet for a rematch in the first week of the playoffs.

Atlanta Falcons: Consistency

Who are the real Atlanta Falcons?

Are they the team that beats the Jacksonville Jaguars 41-14?  Or the team that finds ways to lose against prime competition like the New Orleans Saints and Houston Texans?

At 8-5, the Falcons have gone 7-3 since they began the season losing two of its first three games.  The problem is you really don't know if Atlanta can go on a playoff run, or underwhelm us yet again. 

The Falcons pass defense is 14th in the league and their offense looks solid but again, they've played six games over .500 and lost four of them. 

There may be no more confounding contender in the league.  This team could make a run to the Super Bowl or flame out very very quickly. 

Denver Broncos: Tim Tebow

Ah yes, let the Tebow lovers begin to pile on as they'll likely believe I am a Tebow hater.

I don't hate Tim Tebow.  The guy seems like an amazing person and after watching a number of specials on him, I'd like nothing more than to see this Hollywood movie end up with Tebow shocking the world, holding a Super Bowl trophy at the end of the season.

The problem is, I just don't think he's a good quarterback...yet.

Consider these facts regarding Tebow's most recent opponents.

Week 9 vs. Oakland:  Carson Palmer's first start.

Week 10 vs. Kansas City:  Matt Cassel gets hurt; enter Tyson Palko

Week 11 vs. New York Jets:  Jets have one day to prepare for game after playing on Monday night and having to travel to Denver for a Thursday night game.

Week 12:  vs. San Diego:  Kicker Nick Novak misses two game winning field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime.

Week 13: vs. Minnesota:  Vikings play without perennial Pro Bowl running back Adrian Peterson and capitalize on a grievous error by rookie Christian Ponder.

Week 14:  vs. Chicago:  Broncos have to rely on key errors by running back Marion Barber to win despite a Bears team without Jay Cutler or Matt Forte. 

You obviously have to give credit about Tebow's many fourth-quarter comebacks.  The question is, what if the Broncos go down by two touchdowns or more?  Can Tebow start leading a comeback....in the third quarter? 

New York Giants: Reclaiming Their Identity

The Giants of old, and even the G-Men of 2008 had a dominant defense and a bruising running game.  The Giants of 2011 look nothing like those teams. 

The good news is that Eli Manning looks like he's had some Peyton pixie dust put on his shoulders as he's having the kind of season that would win him an MVP in previous years.

Here's the problem.  They have the worst running game in football, and their defense is so riddled with injuries you wonder what good offense they can stop. 

New York put Green Bay to the test two weeks ago and almost ended their run to perfection.  But if they want any hope of beating a team like the Packers or Saints, they'll need to find that identity that helped the Giants win three Super Bowls in the past. 

Pittsburgh Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger's Health

There's little doubt that Ben Roethlisberger may not only be the toughest quarterback in the league, he may be the toughest player.

From having broken noses fixed on the sideline to playing with fractured fingers, to coming back on the field with a high ankle sprain that would knock other players out for a few weeks, Big Ben seems to get through it all.

But Steelers fans have to be concerned that all of these injuries may eventually take their toll.  He probably won't miss any games, but if his performance even dips a little, the Steelers could be in real trouble in a stacked AFC that could leave Pittsburgh as a wild-card team. 

San Francisco 49ers: Alex Smith

What Jim Harbaugh has done with the 49ers is nothing short of remarkable, considering this is a very similar roster that has constantly failed to live up to expectations.  He has a great defense and Frank Gore continues to be one of the most underrated running backs int he league.

He's also helped Alex Smith turn into an efficient quarterback, which is saying something since several coaches have benched the former No. 1 pick.  But despite his almost error-free play, the team is still just 29th in throwing the ball.

While that may get them past one game, I just can't see the 49ers being able to win two or three games, considering two of those wins would almost certainly have to come against Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, who both likely will break Dan Marino's single-season passing yards record. 

It's a great season in San Francisco as they'll make their first trip to the playoffs in nine years.  But don't expect them to go far with Smith at the helm. 

Houston Texans: Injuries

For a team that was labeled as being underachievers for so long, it's been incredible to watch a team be so resilient. 

Considering the team is winning without arguably three of their four best players in Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Mario Williams, you have to give the Texans a ton of credit, as they've already clinched the AFC South.

The problem for Houston is once they start having to play against the AFC's premier teams, they may simply have too many injuries to star players.  T.J. Yates has looked very strong for being a third-string rookie.  But match up Yates against Tom Brady and I don't care how good Houston's defense is; that's a tall order for a rookie. 

The good news for Houston is they are quite possibly starting a new winning tradition, so no matter what happens the rest of the way, this year was a success.  But I just don't see this team being able to beat the big boys of the AFC. 

New Orleans Saints: Playing On The Road

The Saints may in fact be the best team at home this weekend; even better than the Green Bay Packers.  They're scoring 39.8 points per game at home, which is incredibly dominant.  The problem is, New Orleans is a very average 4-3 on the road this year. 

The road to the Super Bowl is almost certain to go through Green Bay, which means the Saints at some point will have to play a very cold game if they want to get to Indianapolis in February.

New Orleans doesn't have good recent history with this, as they were dominated by the Chicago Bears in the 2006 NFC Championship when the Saints had to go to a snowy Solider Field. 

The Saints may blow people away at home, but if and when they have to go on the road, they may be the ones going home in the end. 

New England Patriots: Pass Defense

The Patriots have managed to be in the middle of the road in terms of giving up points, even though they're giving up by far the most pass yards with over 300 yards per game. 

New England may be able to get away with that in the regular season when some of their opponents include the Indianapolis Colts, Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, but they're not likely to be as fortunate if they have to play the Baltimore Ravens or Pittsburgh Steelers in the postseason.

No one can deny the talent of Tom Brady and his offense.  But there's a reason why the Patriots haven't won a playoff game since their 2007 Super Bowl season.  The defense has been a weak spot since then, and it's really not getting any better. 

Baltimore Ravens: Playing To The Level Of Their Competition

The good news for Ravens fans is their team usually plays their best against their toughest foes.  The problem is, the team struggles when they're a prohibitive favorite, as seen from their stinkers against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. 

With two of their last three games against teams under. 500, you have to worry that Baltimore could play itself out of a bye and back on the road for the postseason, where they've been every year under John Harbaugh's tenure. 

Baltimore has a team that from top to bottom is probably the best in the AFC and has a defense that could probably compete against some of the vaunted NFC offenses.  The issue is getting to that point if they manage to blow their chance at winning the AFC North. 

Green Bay Packers: Playing Against A Top Defense

Their isn't much more you can say in praising the Green Bay Packers.  The team has won 18 games in a row dating back to last season and is on its way to becoming just the third team to go undefeated in the regular season.

But just like the Patriots team that succumbed to the New York Giants in the Super Bowl, this team does have flaws.  Its defense is quite weak and their offensive line struggles at times.

The defense has given up 23 or more points in seven of its 13 games this season, and over 30 on three of those occasions.  The offense though has managed to pull the team through every time though. 

While their offense is great, it's been helped from their opponent's defense or lack thereof. 

Of the 16 games on their schedule, eight of them are against teams with pass defenses that rank 20th or worse.  The best-rated pass defense they've taken on has actually come against the 2-10 St. Louis Rams.

What will happen if the Packers have to play against a great defense like Baltimore or Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl?  Could a team like San Francisco take them down?  Considering they don't give up a lot of points and run the ball effectively, you never know.

The Packers are undoubtedly a strong team, but considering they've won seven of their games by 10 points or less, there's no guarantee they won't be the first team to go undefeated in a regular season but miss the Super Bowl.