End of Regular Season/ Pre-Bowl Game QB Draft Rankings

Much the way Cam Newton was the talk of the college football season in 2010, Robert Griffin III took captive the collective imagination of the college football world in 2011. He did so mostly as a prolific passer, but also with spectacular athleticism and running ability. 

He followed in Newton's footsteps by clinching his epic season with the Heisman Trophy. And now he is considered a sure first-round draft pick. This all sounds so similar to Newton it's uncanny. 

If the story continues, Newton will end up the No. 1 overall selection in the NFL Draft and go on to become the likely NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

Truth be told only the No. 1 overall selection seems out of the question right now. Then again Newton wasn't expected to go No. 1 overall at this time last year either. 

The most disturbing part of this story for me is that I was dumb enough to call Newton a fifth-round pick last season, and wildly assumed Griffin could do no better. For that reason, I failed to even record Griffin's games up until late, late, late in the season. 

But I am not afraid to eat crow. This kid is a better prospect than Newton was a season ago, and look how well that is working out for the Carolina Panthers. From this day on, I am making a pledge. I will no longer assume an athletic quarterback cannot make it in the NFL. And that's exactly why Griffin has moved up significantly from my last rankings.

Additionally, I must add these rankings should have been done by December 4th or 5th, but at least I'm getting them in before the bowl season officially starts Saturday.                             

1. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Grade: No. 1 Overall

As I mentioned previously, I was late on the RG3 bandwagon—very late. As a result, I only have two games of film on him. Nonetheless, those two games were better than any two any other QB has to his name this season. 

Of course winning the Heisman doesn't hurt. Same with leading Baylor to its first nine-win season in several decades. Oh and going four whole games having thrown more touchdowns than incompletions—well that's just special. 

Griffin's accuracy percentage is solid in the two games of film I looked at. Overall, he was 25 of 36, and showed solid control throwing the ball down the field. 

More importantly, Griffin was well above 50 percent in the three most important situations—against pressure, on the run and in clutch situations. 

But with Griffin you must go beyond the accuracy percentages. It's his ability to read a defense, choose the correct receiver, athleticism and feel for the position to move within the pocket and keep plays alive. And perhaps the trait most impressive is that despite his tremendous running ability Griffin scrambles looking to throw first. 

My previous concerns about him running an NFL offense seem null and void. If I were a coach for 80 percent of the teams in the NFL I'd feel comfortable handing him the reins to my offense from the first day he signs his rookie contract. 

2. Andrew Luck, Stanford, Grade: Top-5 Pick

Placing Andrew Luck below RG3 has less to do with Luck and more to do with Griffin. Griffin is just a NEXT type talent, whereas Luck is a Matt Ryan-type.

In other words, Luck is a guy who will routinely keep your team in the playoff hunt, and may win you a few playoff games. Heck, he may even win you a Super Bowl, but he's not a Hall of Fame-type talent (not saying he can't get there, just doesn't project that way). 

That said, any other year Luck would be the surefire No. 1 pick—and for most people he is. That's fine, I have no problem with that. I simply don't agree. 

Everybody knows what he does well, but the truth is his accuracy doesn't compare to players such as Case Keenum, Brandon Weeden or Griffin. Obviously, he's on Venus when Kellen Moore is on Mars in the area of accuracy. 

He is an incredibly smart person and player, a great leader and a guy you want to go to battle with. But the arm strength is sometimes questionable, as is the decision-making. 

What could put him in elite/Hall of Fame-type status is actually his athleticism. His ability to move and throw on the run is second to none—even RG3.

The more I watch him, the more I realize he fits best in a West Coast system such as the type Mike Shanahan runs. They like to get their QBs on the edge with bootlegs and lots of play-action. 

Luck would fit very well in that type of offense. Of course, it seems more and more likely the Colts will select Luck, though I think that No. 1 pick with the new CBA has tremendous trade value.

If you're the Redskins wouldn't you rather have Luck—or Griffin if you were to decide he's the better fit—for your future than a couple years of Peyton Manning or whomever else? 

3. Matt Barkley, Southern California, Top-10 Pick

Matt Barkley is your typical pocket passer. He is going to be best in a regular NFL offense. In other words, don't expect a team like Denver to draft him and have him compete against Tim Tebow—though if they did all secularists would probably dismiss the Broncos as a real NFL team (Barkley is almost as unapologetic about his Christian faith as Tebow). 

In my mind, there is very little difference between Luck and Barkley in terms of production. The only reason I give Luck the spot ahead of Barkley is because of Luck's superior athleticism. Barkley is given almost full control of the SC offense at the line of scrimmage and does a great job getting his team into the right play. 

For those who have questioned his arm strength, put on the film of Barkley throwing seam routes or deep sideline routes. Arm strength won't be an issue for Barkley at the next level. In fact, very little seems to be getting in the way of Barkley and NFL stardom. 

Perhaps that thing is a chance at the Heisman Trophy and a legitimate shot of winning the national championship next season for the Trojans. But if Barkley chooses to forgo those opportunities, he's almost a lock to be selected within the top 10 selections in this quarterback heavy draft. 

4. Nick Foles, Arizona, Second Round

Nick Foles is the most underrated quarterback in this entire draft. Most people assume the awful record is an assassination on Foles' ability. But if you put on the film, you see Foles was literally the only hope Arizona had each weekend. 

He had great numbers, but more importantly he stood in against pressure, threw well on the run and took control of a bad offense and made it respectable. 

If nothing else, he's battle-tested. If he were to go to a pro team and start right away, the fact he's been through losing would seem to be a positive in terms of him and the attitude he's going to show off. 

Foles has some holes in his game. He can be a slow decision-maker at times, especially on third down. And on occasion he loses his mechanics on easy throws. 

But the guy has guts and competes every game. He may not be an a superstar but I'd be surprised if he doesn't stick around the league for many years. 

5. Case Keenum, Houston, Third Round

If there's any QB in college football this season I could see taking my affections from me the way Drew Brees did over a decade ago, it would have been Keenum. 

His stature is unimpressive. He's on his sixth year of collegiate eligibility, and he played at a school who had to win their conference championship to get a BCS game, despite not losing once the previous 12 games. 

If ever there was a player who was bound to lack acclaim it was Keenum. Yet, the more you watch the guy, the more you are impressed by the way he runs his offense. And he throws the football with authority.

In many ways he's a gunslinger, but he's an intelligent one at that. You don't sense that he questions any throw he makes. 

If the guy were two inches taller, played at a BCS school and wasn't on his sixth year of eligibility, the guy would be talked about as a first-round pick in the upcoming draft. 

The guy has a canon for an arm, is sneaky accurate on deep throws, looks down the gun-barrel against pressure and throws accurately. Oh, and he wins!

If you're simply judging the football player, and not the extenuating circumstances around him, he's one of the top five QBs in the draft. That's exactly why I have him here. 

He's better than Kevin Kolb was coming out of Houston, and he was drafted in the second round. Keenum will likely be selected lower, but I fully expect him to have a better career than Kolb. 

6. Kirk Cousins, Michigan State, Third/Fourth Round

At the risk of sounding cliche, Kirk Cousins reminds me a lot of Tom Brady, another state of Michigan college product. He will likely won't be selected in the first couple rounds, but has many of the traits desirable for NFL success. 

His arm strength is better than average, his smarts equal to most NFL QBs and a passion for the game not commonly seen in quarterbacks. 

He also does a nice job throwing on the run and under pressure. And in the biggest game of his college career, Cousins played his finest football. That has to count for something. 

I project Cousins to be a guy who goes in as a third-string QB and eventually gets an opportunity. I can't guarantee he ever becomes a star, but I could see it happening. 

7. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Fourth Round

I like Ryan Tannehill a lot, and the fourth-round grade is likely an overreaction to his poor final game against rival Texas.

But Tannehill seems to play his worst football at the most inopportune times. That isn't a trait you want in a QB. 

He has all the physical traits you want in a QB, and worst case scenario could give receiver a try before leaving for the AFL or CFL. But he still has a long way to go before NFL stardom finds him. 

His accuracy is average, and his understanding of the game of football leaves a lot to desire. If he can improve from now 'til the draft, Tannehill could easily regain high standing in these rankings. 

But he's got a lot of work to do. 

8. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Fifth Round

No one in this draft has the life experience of Brandon Weeden. Unfortunately NFL scouts don't always look at that as a positive thing.

As much as I'd like to not downgrade Weeden for this, the reality is that he's at best a 10-year starter. 

Granted, if he gave you that, you'd be happy. But projections for such a thing are impossible. 

Weeden figures to get on the field by about the time he's 30, which should be the prime for an NFL QB, not his inaugural season playing. 

That said, the guy has some great traits—namely arm strength and a quick release. At worst, he should be a good backup for 10-plus years. 

But that kind of guy simply can't be taken before the fifth round, in my opinion. 

9. Landry Jones, Oklahoma, Sixth Round

For much of this season Landry Jones was high atop most draft boards. And he was considered among the top-three at the quarterback position. 

After struggles in his past three games, everyone is rethinking that mindset. 

But Jones' place hasn't changed tremendously in my mind. He's always been a fifth- or sixth-round pick in my mind. 

He needs to improve his decision-making, overall mobility—though I like how he moves in the pocket—gain poise and improve his consistency. 

Playing his final season at Oklahoma should go a long way to addressing these things. If he can show well, he will become a first-round projected QB once again. The talent is there, he just needs to tap into it.

10. Tyler Wilson, Arkansas, Seventh Round

I once had Tyler Wilson as a first-round pick. Now, as defenses have had time to adjust to his skillset, it seems teams have figured him out a bit. 

He is a winner with a big arm and surprising mobility. One more season under Bobby Petrino should give him the necessary time to regain his stature as an elite NFL prospect. 

Dominating LSU and Alabama next season wouldn't hurt either. 

The Rest

11. Kellen Moore, Boise State: As is always said, great college QB. Figures to be a great coach. If he were a couple inches taller with a little bigger arm, would likely be a fairly high pick. 

12. Russell Wilson, Wisconsin: With lack of a big arm but amazing athleticism, Wilson figures to find a place at receiver, safety and/or special teams in the league. 

13. Ryan Lindley, San Diego State: Watched the guy in person a few weeks ago. He lacks accuracy and even a sliver of pocket mobility. He's a statue back there. 

14. Brock Osweiler, Arizona State: Stock has continued to drop. Should definitely come back for his senior season and see how he does in new coach Todd Graham's offense.  

15. Chandler Harnish, Northern Illinois: I admit I have not seen this kid play, and thus have no personal opinion of him other than thisI rarely trust small school guys, since Rusty Smith burned me a few years ago.