North Carolina Basketball: How Many Games Will They Drop Before the Tourney?

Short Answer: Less than five (see below for exact answer)

Long Answer: 

North Carolina (8-2) has had their fair share of uncertainty this year. The Tar Heels started off the season at No. 1, played well in their season opener against Michigan State and then were blind-sighted by an early-season upset loss to UNLV in late November. 

The Tar Heels then barely held on against Wisconsin at home, and battled it out until the very end against No. 1 Kentucky, but came out with a loss. 

North Carolina is now ranked No. 5 and is looking at a possible seven-game win streak going into ACC conference play. 

Let's take a look at the Tar Heels' remaining non-conference games: 

12/17- Appalachian St.; 12/19- Nicholls St.; 12/21- Texas; 12/29- Elon; 1/1- Monmouth

The only real team that stands a chance at beating North Carolina out of those opponents is Texas, and the Longhorns don't have a very strong team this year. That stated, the Tar Heels have will most likely roll over these opponents, boosting their record to 13-2. 

Now, for ACC conference play North Carolina plays: 

Boston College (1)*, Miami (2), Florida State (1), Virginia Tech (1), NC State (2), Georgia Tech (1), Wake Forest (1), Maryland (2), Duke (2), Virginia (2), and Clemson (1)

*number of matchups against opponent

Although the ACC isn't at its strongest this year, there are teams that can give North Carolina some trouble. Let's first group the teams that won't pose a threat to the Tar Heels: 

Boston College, Miami, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Maryland, and Clemson

That leaves five teams (Florida State, Virginia Tech, NC State, Duke, and Virginia) that will be serious contenders against North Carolina. 

The most serious contenders are NC State, Duke, and Virginia. 

NC State: The Wolfpack may only stand at 6-3 right now, but all of their losses have come to solid teams (Indiana, Vanderbilt, and Stanford). They are a very unselfish team and spread the scoring around to everyone. The fact that it's a rivalry game always intensifies the game. 

Duke: The Blue Devils are under scrutiny for being overrated after they got destroyed by No. 1 Ohio State. They have some very talented guards in Austin Rivers and Seth Curry, but they have not rebounded well this year. Another huge rivalry for the Tar Heels, and the first matchup is at home for UNC. 

Virginia: The Cavaliers have already proved themselves against Top 25 teams by beating No. 15 Michigan earlier this year. Senior forward Mike Scott (15.3 PPG 9.1 RPG) will have two chances to take down the No. 5 Tar Heels. 

Stepping back from all the could-be contenders, North Carolina could go undefeated for the remainder of the season if all goes according to play. The Tar Heel have a good chance to beat Duke twice this year and sweep through the rest of their ACC opponents. 

However, from a more realistic point-of-view, the Tar Heels will probably lose about three games this year and finish at 26-5. There's always room for an upset in college basketball, and their rivalry games will be very even games. 

So, 3, that's the magic number. 25-6 before the ACC Tournament.

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