Jaguars vs. Falcons: Why Jacksonville Is the Best Bet in Tonight's Showdown

The Atlanta Falcons are at home. The Jacksonville Jaguars struggle on the road. The Falcons still have something to play for. The Jaguars do not. Matt Ryan is playing tremendous right now. Blaine Gabbert is not.

Still, though, a 13-point spread? The Jaguars probably don't have much of a chance to win, but I love them getting two touchdowns. 

Like I said, the Falcons are on a roll. Ryan has thrown for at least 260 yards in six straight games and Atlanta has won four of those games.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, is coming off a big win over Tampa Bay last week but continues to have a pretty porous offense.

Porous, of course, besides running back Maurice Jones-Drew.

Jones-Drew is an absolute workhorse. He's had more than 20 carries in four of his last five games and the Jaguars continue to rely on him. He's also becoming increasingly involved in the pass game with six catches in each of the last two games.

It's because of Jones-Drew that this game will be kept close. The Falcons give up just 3.9 yards per carry and are very stout against the run, but that won't stop Jacksonville from pounding the ball.

The Jaguars will pound the ball and give Jones-Drew as many touches as he can handle. To what degree it will work is unknown, but that doesn't matter.

With the way it plays, Jacksonville will slow the game down and turn this into a low-scoring game. Even if it is outmatched, it's hard to imagine the Falcons scoring enough to get up by 14.

Jacksonville's defense is underrated as well, so you have to take that into account. All the offense has to do is score 14 points.

Atlanta will win, but no way will it score close to 30 points in this grind-it-out style of game. A 24-14 game seems much more plausible.

And if you needed more proof, the Falcons have been double-digit favorites 11 times in the past 23 years. In those games, they are just 3-8 against the spread.

I'm confident Atlanta will move to 9-5 tonight, but I'm even more confident Jacksonville will make bettors a lot of money.