New England Patriots: Tom Brady's Favorite Targets Are Also His Most Efficient
The New England Patriots have received a lot of criticism for their inability to develop talent at wide receiver.
And the numbers support that theory in stunning fashion.
While it's true that the Patriots rely far more on their tight ends than in years past, this list is top-heavy, to say the least.
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Just how top-heavy?
It truly is Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Deion Branch, Aaron Hernandez and then everyone else. After those four, the next highest total belongs to Danny Woodhead with 5.6 percent.
A few interesting factoids from further analysis of this chart:
- Brady's top four targets average 20.3 percent of Brady's targets between them. All eight other receivers Brady has targeted total 17.8 percent of Brady's targets between them.
- Only one running back, Woodhead, has over 10 targets. Considering how heavily the offense used to rely on running backs, that's incredibly low.
The number of targets sheds light on who Brady's favorite targets are, but which targets are his most efficient?
Upon further analysis, a few things jump out.
First of all, not one of his receivers outside of his top four favorite targets has caught a touchdown pass. Not. One.
Beyond that, Brady has thrown six of his interceptions on a total of 82.2 percent of his passes to his top four targets. He has thrown his other five picks on the remaining eight receivers, which account for the aforementioned 17.8 percent of his targets.
Brady's passer rating of 106.0 is higher than his passer rating on all but two of his receivers. His efficiency relies on his great chemistry with Gronkowski and Welker. And it can't be a coincidence that those are the two guys he also targets the most.
Welker and Gronk have been indispensable for him all season long and remain his most dynamic threats because of their sure hands. The fact that both have such low interception totals on throws in their direction, despite the fact that both dwell on their abilities in between the numbers, is a testament both to Brady's pinpoint accuracy and to the chemistry between the quarterback and his favorite targets.
It also sheds some light on why he relies on them so heavily.
Well, that and the fact he has no one else to throw to.
Out of the top six pass-catchers in passer rating, only two are wide receivers. The seventh on the list, Matthew Slater, has just one reception. Not only are the other receivers rarely getting on the field, but they're rarely targeted when they finally get out there.
Chad Ochocinco's low passer rating is more evidence to his ineffectiveness this season (as if you needed any), and though it's not fair to blame the receiver for passes being picked off when he's the target (with some exceptions), perhaps Edelman's team-low passer rating is further evidence to his switch to defense.
The big picture assessment of these numbers is this:
- The offense has changed dramatically. Just a few years ago, the receivers and running backs were the ones topping these lists. Now, it's the receivers and tight ends. The running backs have become an afterthought.
- While it may be true that Brady relies heavily on Gronkowski and Welker, it's not without reason. Those two have been his most efficient targets all year long.
- The fact that those two are being targeted so frequently but have remained largely unstoppable is a testament to their talent as receivers, Brady's accuracy on every throw and chemistry between Brady and his two favorite targets.
Going forward, it's abundantly clear that the Patriots will need to find further threats at wide receiver. While the production they've gotten out of Aaron Hernandez has been stellar in its own right, Hernandez, Gronkowski, Welker and Branch are only going to take the offense so far.
The Patriots need a receiver who can play multiple roles in the offense, as Jabar Gaffney did in his time with the Patriots. Only then will they be able to achieve maximum versatility in their offensive sets.
At the same time, that receiver must have the mental aptitude to learn the offense, have the physical ability to execute it and be able to quickly get on the same page with Brady.
Good luck, whoever you are.
Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter.

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