2012 NFL Mock Draft: Which Teams Will Be the Biggest Winners on Draft Day?
Another week is in the books this NFL season and the 2012 NFL draft order has changed, with my most notable adjustment being the placement of the New York Giants in the playoffs after their big win against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 14.
USC standouts Matt Barkley and Matt Kalil have yet to declare for the draft, while Notre Dame star linebacker Manti Te'o has said he will return for his senior season with the Fighting Irish.
It's getting close to bowl season in college football, which will inevitably change the stocks of several players before they hit the NFL combine.
But for now, here is my projected draft order and who will land where.
Comments and questions encouraged.
1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
1 of 32Tools: Andrew Luck has elite arm strength, accuracy, pocket presence and leadership skills. He also can run if he gets into trouble. What more do you want?
Why He Goes Here: At 0-13, the Colts are bound for the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Nothing short of a miracle will change this fact.
Why He Fits With Indianapolis: The Colts unfortunately can't rest their hopes on Peyton Manning anymore. He's coming off two neck surgeries that have held him out of this season. They need to start grooming their next franchise quarterback.
2. St. Louis Rams: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
2 of 32Tools: Alshon Jeffery has everything you could want from an elite receiver prospect. He's strong, incredibly focused, has good hands and distances himself from Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon because he projects to separate better from NFL cornerbacks on long routes.
Why He Goes Here: The Rams proved after their 30-13 thrashing at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks that they have no intentions of giving up the No. 2 overall pick.
Why He Fits With St. Louis: I believe quarterback Sam Bradford should share some of the blame for the Rams' failures this season, but he also doesn't have much help. Grabbing a player in Jeffery, who projects as a superstar in the NFL, will make Bradford's job a whole lot easier.
3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT, USC
3 of 32Tools: Strong, athletic and intelligent with an NFL-ready body, Matt Kalil projects as a top offensive tackle for years in the pros. He's been quarterback Matt Barkley's best friend while with USC.
Why He Goes Here: At 2-11, the Vikings have lost five straight games. They seem destined to draft in the top three of the draft.
Why He Fits With Minnesota: There are questions about 2011 first-round quarterback Christian Ponder, but I believe he's shown enough for the team to see how he develops. The Vikings have also given up 41 sacks through Week 14, tied for fourth-most in the NFL. Ponder could use a bit of protection.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
4 of 32Tools: Justin Blackmon doesn't have breakaway speed, but he makes up for it with his strength, incredible against press coverage and is always a threat after the catch. It's very close between him and Jeffery in my mind.
Why He Goes Here: The Jaguars did come away with an impressive win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 14, but that doesn't change the fact that they are 4-9 and will probably lose to playoff contenders Atlanta and Tennessee.
Why He Fits With Jacksonville: Rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert has been pretty awful so far, but you also have to give him options to make a true assessment of his play. If he doesn't play well with Blackmon, he's likely a bust.
5. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
5 of 32Tools: Trent Richardson has the rare combination of speed, strength, patience, vision and explosiveness. A much better prospect than former teammate Mark Ingram and I believe he should have won the Heisman this season.
Why He Goes Here: Oh, Cleveland, Cleveland, Cleveland. Every season you make your fans miserable. This season is no different and the Browns will likely select in the top five.
Why He Fits With Cleveland: It's generally not a great idea to draft a running back in the top five...unless he's an elite prospect like Richardson. After the Peyton Hillis fiasco, the Browns need a new franchise back and Richardson projects as a superstar in the NFL.
6. Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
6 of 32Tools: Wow, where to start? This season's Heisman winner has outstanding arm strength, is very accurate inside and outside the pocket, seemingly can't be shaken at all and has shown great leadership skills. On top of that, he rushed for 644 yards and nine touchdowns this season for Baylor. You could be looking at another Cam Newton...except better.
Why He Goes Here: After a good start, the Redskins are 4-9 and have lost their last two games. Well, at least they get a top-10 pick out of it.
Why He Fits With Washington: The root of the Redskins' problems this season has been their quarterback play. Griffin could be their franchise quarterback and his composure and character could actually make head coach Mike Shanahan smile.
7. Carolina Panthers: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
7 of 32Tools: I honestly don't see any way Morris Claiborne won't be a lockdown cornerback in the NFL, barring an epic collapse. He has the speed and technique to turn and run with the speedsters and the strength and height (6'1") to match up well with the bigger receivers of the NFL. Some even believe he's a better cover corner than former Tiger Patrick Peterson.
Why He Goes Here: The Panthers have made strides offensively this season with Cam Newton, but they're still 4-9 and have matchups with playoff contenders Houston and New Orleans looming.
Why He Fits With Carolina: The Panthers offense may have improved this season, but their defense has been pretty bad. They've allowed 27.3 points per game through Week 14 and are in desperate need of a defensive star in the secondary. Claiborne would be a godsend.
8. Miami Dolphins: Matt Barkley, QB, USC
8 of 32Tools: Matt Barkley has been overshadowed by Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III this season, but he still could be a franchise quarterback. He's a complete quarterback who is accurate and can toss the ball down the field, as well as scramble when he needs to. Barkley shouldn't be considered a consolation prize for the Dolphins by any means.
Why He Goes Here: The Dolphins are 4-9 and coming off a 26-10 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles that saw head coach Tony Sparano get fired. Lucky for them (insert sarcasm here), they get to face New England and the New York Jets in their final two games of the regular season.
Why He Fits With Miami: Quarterback Matt Moore has had a bit of a run this season, but he's not the answer in Miami. The Dolphins simply can't pass up a prospect of Barkley's caliber. Quarterback is the primary need for this team.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina
9 of 32Tools: Zach Brown is arguably the most complete linebacker in this year's class. He's a great fit in a 4-3 defense given his tackling ability, ability to create pressure and solid coverage skills. He's one of the biggest risers this season.
Why He Goes Here: The Buccaneers are 4-9 and have lost their last seven games. They appear destined for a top-10 pick.
Why He Fits With Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers have had trouble against the run and the pass this season, and have struggled mightily to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Brown could help in all these areas and he's a great fit in their 4-3 defense.
10. Buffalo Bills: Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State
10 of 32Tools: Vontaze Burfict scares the living daylights out of me, and he's been a terror for opposing offenses all season long. Isn't that what a middle linebacker should be about? He's incredibly strong, hits hard, has great vision and a volatile temper. There are character concerns based on his emotional personality, but teams will gladly ignore these based on his abilities.
Why He Goes Here: The Bills are 5-8 and don't appear to be getting better.
Why He Fits With Buffalo: The Bills have allowed 4.7 yards per carry this season and their defense has been a big reason they have a 5-8 record. They need a superstar on the defensive side of the ball. Burfict figures to give them that.
11. Kansas City Chiefs: Cordy Glenn, G/T, Georgia
11 of 32Tools: Cordy Glenn has been rising for me all season long. He's strong enough to hold up as a guard in the NFL and is incredibly quick on the edges for being 330 pounds. He's a good fit for any team looking for help at guard or tackle.
Why He Goes Here: After winning the AFC West last season, the Chiefs have gone 5-8 so far, and it's led to the firing of head coach Todd Haley. Their injuries don't excuse their performance this season.
Why He Fits With Kansas City: Right tackle Barry Richardson needs to go away fast. He's an extreme liability. Glenn would be a welcome addition to fill Richardson's shoes, and he'll help in the running game and in pass protection.
12. Arizona Cardinals: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
12 of 32Tools: Riley Reiff is the second best left tackle prospect in the draft, and there should be no debating this. Despite a slender frame, he holds up just fine against the bull rush, and his athleticism will cause plenty of troubles for speed rushers.
Why He Goes Here: The Cardinals are suddenly rising after three straight wins, but they are still 6-7 and will likely fall somewhere in this range.
Why He Fits With Arizona: The Cardinals have given up 43 sacks this season through Week 14, third most in the NFL. Having probably the worst left tackle in football in Levi Brown hasn't exactly helped matters. Reiff has the ability to be an instant starter in the NFL, and boy do the Cardinals need him.
13. San Diego Chargers: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
13 of 32Tools: The first thing that stands out about Jonathan Martin is his tenacious personality on the line. First and foremost, he has the desire and passion to improve each season. You mix in outstanding run-blocking ability and his athleticism and you have an elite tackle prospect.
Why He Goes Here: The Chargers have won their last two games but are still 6-7, turning in yet another disappointing season under head coach Norv Turner. It's time for Turner to go.
Why He Fits With San Diego: Adding Martin opposite Marcus McNeill would be a big win for quarterback Philip Rivers and the Chargers, who have had protection issues this season.
14. Philadelphia Eagles: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
14 of 32Tools: Gilmore is the No. 2 cornerback of the class in my opinion. He's an all-around player who can stuff the run and shut down No. 1 receivers with his solid coverage skills. He's also shown big-play ability, with six interceptions in his last two seasons, and he projects as a Pro Bowler at the next level.
Why He Goes Here: The Eagles have been a massive disappointment this season and they've had problems across the board. "The Dream Team" actually needs a high draft pick.
Why He Fits With Philadelphia: Who knew the Eagles would actually need help in the secondary after acquiring Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Both have struggled, particularly DRC, and Asante Samuel likely won't be with the team next season given his constant squabbles with management and coaching staff.
15. Seattle Seahawks: Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
15 of 32Tools: Landry Jones hasn't lived up to his sky-high expectations this season, but that doesn't mean he can't be a very good quarterback in the NFL. He's more of a work of progress than we previously thought, needing help with his throwing technique, but that can be ironed out in the NFL. He does need to be more consistent, however.
Why He Goes Here: The Seahawks are on par to finish with nearly the same record as they did last season, but 7-9 won't get them into the playoffs this season.
Why He Fits With Seattle: Tarvaris Jackson has been better than imagined this season, but he clearly isn't a franchise quarterback in the NFL. Neither is Charlie Whitehurst. The Seahawks need a game-changing QB...badly.
16. Tennessee Titans: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
16 of 32Tools: There are concerns about Michael Floyd having three alcohol-related offenses while at Notre Dame, but his abilities jump off the charts. He has good size, better burst than last season, good hands and is explosive. A complete receiver who could go earlier in the draft.
Why He Goes Here: The Titans are in the AFC playoff picture at 7-6, but I ultimately don't see them making the playoffs.
Why He Fits With Tennessee: When Kenny Britt returns from injury, the Titans need a receiver opposite him to keep defenses honest. Nate Washington is a decent player, but Floyd could be a star. The Titans need weapons for rookie quarterback Jake Locker.
17. Dallas Cowboys: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
17 of 32Tools: Alfonzo Dennard's prospects are in his hands. He excels in press coverage and has outstanding leaping ability, but he needs to stay aggressive. He looked timid and/or uninterested earlier this season, but that needed passion has come roaring back in recent weeks, which is why I have him ahead of Alabama's Dre Kirkpatrick on my big board.
Why He Goes Here: It wasn't just that the Cowboys lost to the New York Giants in Week 14, it's that they showed the inconsistency that has me thinking they will lose to the Giants again at the end of the regular season. I expect the Cowboys to barely miss out on the playoffs.
Why He Fits With Dallas: The Cowboys drafted right tackle Tyron Smith in the first round last season, and it's proven to be a wise decision. But the Cowboys have had a need in the secondary for the past couple of seasons, and a projected star like Dennard would be a huge boost to their playoff chances next season.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami (FL)
18 of 32Tools: Lamar Miller is being compared to Philadelphia Eagles running back LeSean McCoy by some experts. Given his athleticism and ability to be a threat on the ground and in the air, it's no wonder why. He has great burst and is a legitimate top-15 prospect in my eyes.
Why He Goes Here: This is the Oakland Raiders' pick, acquired in the Carson Palmer trade, and I expect the Raiders to miss out on the AFC West title and the playoffs.
Why He Fits With Cincinnati: The Bengals need to start looking for a replacement for Cedric Benson, and Miller has the ability to be a star in the NFL. Combined with emerging stars Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, the Bengals could catch up to their defense in no time with Miller.
19. Cincinnati Bengals: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
19 of 32Tools: There are concerns that Dre Kirkpatrick won't be able to keep up with the faster NFL receivers, but he did fine against LSU's Rueben Randle this season and that was a big test. Plus, his technique and coverage skills are so good he should be able to make up for these concerns.
Why He Goes Here: The Bengals have done a tremendous job developing this season, but they are still a developing team at 7-6, and I ultimately see them missing out on the playoffs. However, this season should be seen as a success regardless.
Why He Fits With Cincinnati: It was tempting for me to put Janoris Jenkins here, given the Bengals' propensity to acquire talented players with character concerns, but it's honestly going to be hard for them to pass up Kirkpatrick if he falls here. He doesn't have the character concerns, and he could be a shutdown corner in the NFL. The Bengals need someone opposite Leon Hall after the departure of Jonathan Joseph to the Houston Texans.
20. Chicago Bears: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
20 of 32Tools: Melvin Ingram has rocketed up draft boards this season. He's quick, explosive, strong and athletic—what else do you want? He racked up 8.5 sacks and 12 tackles for a loss this season at South Carolina. There is some concern the system at South Carolina boosted his numbers, but you only need to watch film of him to understand he's very good on his own.
Why He Goes Here: Poor Jay Cutler and the Bears. Cutler was having a solid season after a disastrous NFC Championship Game against the Green Bay Packers, and the defense was getting better. But then Cutler went down with another injury and all heck broke loose. At 7-6, the Bears will likely just miss the playoffs.
Why He Fits With Chicago: The Bears have generally had trouble getting to the quarterback this season, with 29 sacks, and adding someone of Ingram's caliber could improve their defense significantly down the line.
21. Detroit Lions: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
21 of 32Tools: Janoris Jenkins, with three marijuana-related offenses to his name already, is the definition of high-risk, high-reward. If you can get past his character concerns, he's a top-15 pick based on his abilities, which include excellent technique and coverage skills.
Why He Goes Here: I expect the Lions to sneak into the playoffs but fall to the New Orleans Saints in the first round.
Why He Fits With Detroit: Jenkins may be high-risk, high-reward, but he's the last standing elite cornerback prospect on the board at this spot, and the Lions will probably risk it given their troubles overall in the secondary. Jenkins is a big-time talent who could make their burgeoning defense stronger next season.
22. Denver Broncos: Devon Still, DT/DE, Penn State
22 of 32Tools: There aren't a lot of standout defensive tackles in this year's draft, but Devon Still is a legit first-rounder. He's strong, has surprising burst and an aggressiveness that will suit him well in the big and bad NFL.
Why He Goes Here: I expect the Broncos to win the AFC West behind, yes, Tim Tebow. However, I think they will lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first round.
Why He Fits With Denver: This is a tough one because the Broncos' biggest need is at cornerback with the aging Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman. But there isn't really anybody here that projects to be a top cornerback in my opinion. Instead, I feel the Broncos will add insurance for Ty Warren, who was placed on the injured reserve this season with a torn triceps. If anything, they can develop Still until it's his time.
23. Houston Texans: Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis
23 of 32Tools: A legitimate first-rounder according to most draft experts, Dontari Poe has the strength and frame to command double-teams in the NFL. He's the type of player who could create lanes for defenders to burst through in the pros.
Why He Goes Here: I see the Texans making the playoffs, but not going very far. Their defense is solid, but it's hard to win in the playoffs with a rookie quarterback.
Why He Fits With Houston: Dontari Poe would be a godsend for the Texans. He's by far the best nose tackle prospect in the draft, and he could open up holes for the rest of the Texans' defense, which is becoming a top unit in the NFL.
24. New York Giants: David DeCastro, G, Stanford
24 of 32Tools: There's not much not to like about David DeCastro. He's strong in both run blocking and pass blocking, is the top pure guard prospect in the class and is coming from a pro-style offense, making his transition easier in the NFL.
Why He Goes Here: As mentioned, I expect the Giants to make the playoffs this season, although they barely pulled it off. However, they won't get too far in the playoffs.
Why He Fits With New York: DeCastro would give quarterback Eli Manning more time to throw and open up lanes for running back Ahmad Bradshaw. There's nothing like bolstering your offensive line.
25. New York Jets: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
25 of 32Tools: Quinton Coples was seen as potentially the No. 2 overall pick back in the preseason. Despite having the quickness, strength and explosiveness to star, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations this season. Nonetheless, based on his raw tools, he's hard to pass up this late in the first round. He also has the flexibility to play in a 3-4 or 4-3 defense.
Why He Goes Here: The Jets, at 8-5, should sneak into the postseason, but I don't ultimately see them making a third straight trip to the AFC Championship Game.
Why He Fits With New York: Ever since the loss of former defensive end Shaun Ellis, the Jets haven't been as effective rushing the passer. They have a middle-of-the-road 29 sacks this season, and most of those sacks have been a product of Rex Ryan's heavy blitz package. Coples could be a steal.
26. Cleveland Browns: Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
26 of 32Tools: Mike Adams has the height, length and athleticism to project well at the next level, and he's displayed strong technique throughout the years at Ohio State. He's a borderline first-round prospect based on skills, but there are also significant character concerns surrounding him.
Why He Goes Here: The Browns get this pick via the 2011 draft-day trade that netted the Atlanta Falcons Julio Jones. I expect the Falcons to reach the playoffs as a wild-card team, but ultimately falter down the stretch.
Why He Fits With Cleveland: The Browns have a top left tackle in former first-round pick Joe Thomas, but they need someone opposite him at right guard. If Adams stays out of trouble, he would form a formidable one-two punch with Thomas to give young quarterback Colt McCoy more time in the pocket.
27. Pittsburgh Steelers: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
27 of 32Tools: There are concerns about Luke Kuechly's size moving ahead to the NFL, but we've also seen several undersized linebackers excel regardless throughout the years. The fact of the matter is, this guy knows how to tackle and he has great instincts. In three seasons, he's recorded 516 tackles (that's not a misprint).
Why He Goes Here: The Steelers will go far into the playoffs this season because they still have a dominant defense, but I have concerns with their offense and I think they don't have enough to make it to the Super Bowl for the second consecutive year.
Why He Fits With Pittsburgh: The Steelers are going to have to replace aging inside linebacker James Farrior at some point, and Kuechly has the chance to be special. The Steelers do have needs on the offensive line, but there's no one worth picking at this spot with Adams off the board.
28. New England Patriots: Jared Crick, DE, Nebraska
28 of 32Tools: Jared Crick reminds me a lot of former Wisconsin defensive end J.J. Watt, who has played well in his first season with the Houston Texans. Crick has a relentless motor, which projects him to get better each season with experience. He also pursues well in a 3-4, while still having the strength to legitimately be a 4-3 end in the NFL.
Why He Goes Here: The Patriots got this pick from the New Orleans Saints. I see the Saints getting far with their offense, but their defense still isn't at the point where I think they make it to the conference championship game.
Why He Fits With New England: The Patriots could use more help on the defensive line, and Crick would be steal at No. 28. Crick could go much earlier based on his abilities, but based on teams' needs, I see him falling somewhere in the late first round.
29. New England Patriots: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
29 of 32Tools: Peter Konz is by far the best center prospect in the class, and he already looks ready to enter the NFL as a junior. He is coming off an ankle injury, but his blocking and tenacity make him hard to ignore. He's also coming from a pro-style offense at Wisconsin.
Why He Goes Here: I expect the Patriots to make it to the AFC Championship Game, but ultimately fall a step away from the Super Bowl. They just don't look as dominant as in years past.
Why He Fits With New England: The Patriots need a replacement for Dan Koppen at center, who is 32 years old and fractured his ankle this season. Konz has the mentality and skills to be the next protector of the demanding Tom Brady.
30. San Francisco 49ers: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
30 of 32Tools: Lost in the hype surrounding Baylor star quarterback Robert Griffin III has been the play of Kendall Wright, who has soared up draft boards for many draft experts. He has the type of speed and explosiveness that has some comparing him to a poor man's version of DeSean Jackson. FYI: He doesn't come with character concerns.
Why He Goes Here: The 49ers have had a remarkable season, and their defense projects them to go far in the playoffs. Their offense has been off and on, but I think the 49ers have a legitimate shot of making it far.
Why He Fits With San Francisco: Former first-rounder Michael Crabtree has finally emerged this season, but offseason signing Braylon Edwards has disappointed, in part because he's been injured. Wright could develop into a legitimate No. 2 receiver who could stretch the field.
31. Baltimore Ravens: Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama
31 of 32Tools: Dont'a Hightower is a fringe first-round prospect, with the size and speed to either be a rushing linebacker in a 3-4 scheme or play as a middle linebacker. He's had a great season with Alabama and could slip into the first round.
Why He Goes Here: I expect the Baltimore Ravens, with their dominant defense, to make it to the Super Bowl this season.
Why He Fits With Baltimore: The Ravens are looking for Ray Lewis' successor, who has to slow down at some point...right? Hightower would be the next-best inside linebacker beyond Kuechly, and he could play next to Lewis next season before it's his turn to take over. Plus, the Ravens love guys from Alabama.
32. Green Bay Packers: Courtney Upshaw, DE/LB, Alabama
32 of 32Tools: Courtney Upshaw has risen up draft boards after an impressive season with Alabama. He has great athleticism, with the ability to play defensive end or outside linebacker, and he certainly can rise to the occasion.
Why He Goes Here: I expect the Green Bay Packers to go undefeated this season and win their second consecutive Super Bowl.
Why He Fits With Green Bay: The Packers need help at defensive end and Upshaw would be a welcome addition to an already strong defense. If he develops, the Packers could be even tougher next season.
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