LSU-Georgia Tech: A Chick-fil-A Bowl Preview of Tigers-Yellow Jackets

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL (FORMERLY PEACH BOWL)

LSU Tigers vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Dec. 31, 2008

7:30 PM ET

Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA

Opening Spread: LSU +2.5

How they got here...

LSU crashed hard back to earth after its national title run of 2007. Thanks in part to spotty quarterback play and a defense that suddenly lacked any teeth, the Tigers finished a disappointing 3-5 in SEC play and 7-5 overall.

Georgia Tech, on the other hand, was one of the year’s pleasant surprises. Under first year head coach Paul Johnson, the Yellow Jackets soared to 9-3 (5-3 ACC) and defeated their archrival Georgia. A three-point loss to Virginia Tech early in the season is all that kept them from visiting the ACC Championship Game in Tampa. They were the only ACC team with fewer than four losses in the regular season.

Statistically speaking...

The most publicized part of Georgia Tech’s resurgence was Johnson’s spread-style triple option attack, and for good reason. Jonathan Dwyer and company ran for just over 282 yards a game. However, the fearsome defense was just as important. The Yellow Jackets were 18th in the nation with 2.67 sacks per game, 12th with 7.5 tackles for loss per game, and ninth with 18 interceptions on the season.

LSU quarterback Jarrett Lee led the NCAA with seven interceptions returned for a touchdown on the season. On the positive side, running back Charles Scott went over the century mark six times on his way to rushing for over 1,100 yards.

Using the same stat analysis I used on these hypothetical BCS title game scenarios, this game actually projects to be about a 31-30 Georgia Tech win. In my picks I went with that and chose Tech because it seems like a team on the rise that will only get better with the month of bowl preparation practice.

Plus when it comes down to it, to slow down that option you must play disciplined defense. The Tigers didn’t do that often this season, and with rumors about changes to the defensive staff swirling for a few weeks, it’s hard to imagine them starting now.

Georgia Tech will win if...

They execute their offense.

The Georgia Tech offense can be dynamic with Dwyer, quarterback Josh Nesbitt, and running back Roddy Jones carrying the ball. The play action can be devastating as well thanks to how relatively rarely passes are attempted.

The Yellow Jackets were plagued with fumble problems all year, however, having lost at least one in every game except the win over Georgia. Losing some more at inopportune times could cripple their cause against a team looking to end a tough season on a high note.

LSU’s offense hasn’t been elite, but new starting quarterback Jordan Jefferson has shown some flashes of brilliance. With a month of practice in the starting role, he could make Georgia Tech pay for generosity. Tech must avoid losing too many fumbles and just play its game.

The following sections on LSU were written by Bleacher Report's resident LSU football guru and community leader, Justin Goar.

LSU will win if...

Jordan Jefferson steps up.

That's a lot to ask of a freshman QB that's started one game. But through kicking a QB off the team in the offseason, to losing one half (and the more experienced half) of your two-headed monster at QB in the AU game, to losing his redshirt INT machine replacement in the Ole Miss game, to starting a guy who went to senior prom six months ago, LSU has been through a lot with their signal callers.
 
The fact is that Jefferson has had the least amount of time learning the offense, but he benefits from being the two-headed monster with one body. Jefferson has the mobility that Andrew Hatch had that Jarrett Lee lacked, and the arm strength of Lee that Hatch did not possess. Jefferson is starting despite Jarrett Lee being able to go.
 
Jefferson appears to be the heir apparent (for now) under center, and he fits the mold of what Gary Crowton likes in his system. Jefferson admits to being in a weird position back in November when trying to tell a senior lineman to hurry to the line. Since then, Jefferson has started to gain the confidence it takes to be a leader on the field, and his teammates have started to back the kid.
 
It will take a few skins on the wall to get ultimate confidence for Jefferson, but getting a win against a stout Georgia Tech defense is a step in the right direction for Jefferson leading into next season for the players, coaches, and the fans.

 
LSU will lose if...

The Tigers defense can't limit the Tech offense from feasting on yards.

Stopping the option is like stopping a wave of attackers at the castle gate. You have to be fundamentally sound—one little mistake can cause a breach, and all hell will break loose. While the Jackets will get their yards, LSU's job is to bend and not break.

The matchup is a much-needed dodged bullet for a defense that's been horrible against the pass. If the Tigers would've drawn Texas Tech in the Cotton, the Red Raiders could hit 70.

Run defense plays more to the strength of LSU, but needing a disciplined, communicative defense does not.
 
If the Tigers can't tackle or be gap sound on the defensive side of the ball, then Paul Johnson's crew can avenge the result of the last Peach Bowl meeting of these two teams in 2000. And it won't be pretty.

 
X-Factor...

A healthy offensive line and Charles Scott.

Les Miles is more than tight-lipped when it comes to injury information, and it's been believed by many that running back Charles Scott's drop in production can be attributed to an under-publicized nagging injury. If Scott is 100 percent, and the offensive line—mainly Lyle Hitt and Brett Helms—is back healthy, look for the LSU running game to pound right back at Tech and turn this into a ground offensive.
 
(In case you haven't heard, I'm predicting LSU to lose 35-24 mainly because I don't think the D will come through, and the offense and special teams will make enough mistakes to bury the Tigers.)

B/R Expert Picks...

Trey Bradley: LSU

Michael Cline: Georgia Tech

GeorgiaDawg: Georgia Tech

Justin Goar: Georgia Tech

Lisa Horne: Georgia Tech

Miami Mitch: LSU

Brian Scott: LSU

David Wunderlich: Georgia Tech