NFL Picks Week 14: 3 Locks No Bettor Would Turn Down

Jeff Grant@@JeffGrantSportsContributor IDecember 9, 2011

NFL Picks Week 14: 3 Locks No Bettor Would Turn Down

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    The National Football League is the biggest moneymaker in Las Vegas for sports books, which instantly makes it the most difficult game in town.

    When you consider that favorites are 93-92-8 against the spread this year through 13 weeks of action, the proof is certainly there.

    Oddsmakers have sent out a very interesting board this week, and I'm going to suggest three plays that will likely net a profit at the end of the week.

    Let's take a closer look at these three games from a betting perspective.

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals

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    The Cincinnati Bengals are currently three-point home favorites against a banged up Houston Texans squad that has won a franchise-high six games in a row.

    Over 60 percent of the straight-bet action has come in on-the-road underdogs, which isn't even close to over 90 percent of the tickets playing the moneyline.

    Sports bettors have a very short memory and have virtually discarded the Bengals the last month, but haven't factored in their recent schedule in dropping three of four games.

    Playing the Steelers twice and Ravens once over that span is no picnic in the AFC North division.

    Las Vegas is taking a position on the Bengals and hoping that the Texans fall to 0-9 ATS when playing on the road after winning in outright fashion as a home underdog the previous week.

    Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

Buffalo Bills at San Diego Chargers

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    The San Diego Chargers are talking about winning out and seeing where they end up in the AFC West division, coming off an impressive 38-14 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars as three-point road favorites on Monday Night Football.

    Oddsmakers certainly could have sent this line out at 8.5 and attracted split action on this contest, especially with the Buffalo Bills traveling across the country with a five-game losing streak.

    Sending out the Chargers as 6.5-point favorites is suspicious, considering they could be teased to an underdog.

    We're definitely going to be part of the small minority, but the Bills being 11-1 ATS on the road after three or more consecutive losses has me feeling confident.

    San Diego will suffer a hangover from playing a game in the Eastern Time Zone and fall to 1-8 ATS in the first of two consecutive home games.

    Pick: Buffalo Bills (+7.5)

Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos

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    The Chicago Bears have been completely written off by the NFL experts due to injuries on the offensive side of the ball, but don't discount linebacker Brian Urlacher and the defense Sunday.

    Bears head coach Lovie Smith will not have to worry about getting his team up for this contest, facing one of the league's biggest stories in Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow.

    Oddsmakers established the Broncos as four-point home favorites, only to see that number knocked down due to extremely sharp action.

    Every sports book manager in town is telling me that patrons are betting Tebow as if he's already delivered the AFC West crown.

    Denver has won six of seven games, but if you take a closer look at the results, it's been a struggle against teams that can play the run.

    The underdogs from the Windy City are eighth in the league in allowing just 99.8 rushing yards per game.

    Pick: Chicago Bears (+3.5)