NFL Week 14: Hot-to-Trot Tips for Every Game

It's a tough life being a football fan sometimes.

For many, the end of the season couldn't come soon enough, whereas for others, the season is only just starting to begin as that magical P-word, playoffs, begins to loom.

Welcome to Week 14 of the National Football League, everybody, and no matter whether your team is 12-0 or 0-12, or just somewhere in the middle, here's the hot-to-trot tips for every game this week to make sure that the end of the season is still as good as it should be.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Colt McCoy—after starting the year with so much promise—is really failing to deliver for the Browns. It's kind of understandable, though, considering the options he has at wide receiver and tight end. They only went down by two scores to Baltimore last week, but for those that watched the game, they'll know that Cleveland were never in that one.

Putting up less than 100 yards rushing and 200 yards passing per game is not going to win you football games. Defensively, they're strong and are league leaders against the pass. However, against a Steelers side that wiped the floor with divisional threats Cincinnati, it's not going to be anywhere near enough.

Big Ben and the offense were strong last week, and with Rashad Mendenhall playing well, as long as the Steelers give him the ball, the Browns will not have enough fingers to plug the holes. They are, after all, ranked 31st in run defense. Expect a lot of running from Pittsburgh then and not a lot of anything really from the Browns.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Pittsburgh to win and cover the start

Under total points (take anything under 35)

Rashad Mendenhall to score the first touchdown

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville

Where the 2010 Tampa Bay Bucs went, nobody really knows, but Josh Freeman has led his offensive unit to a rather disappointing season to date. After a shock win over New Orleans, Tampa Bay has progressively shown less and less threat, and questions must be asked about the offense. They've coughed up 17 interceptions—second highest in the league—for only 18 touchdowns.

And defensively, they're leaking against the run, and their secondary is one of the worst in the NFL, with over 250 yards per game for 20 touchdowns already.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, I simply cannot understand. I know Philip Rivers and the Chargers played lights out on Monday Night Football, but I cannot begin to understand how at home, they held the on-fire Ravens to just seven points, yet let the hapless Chargers score 38.

Blaine Gabbert needs a big game here and has the chance against a weak secondary, but will need his offensive line to step up against the likes of Adrian Clayborn. Unlike last week, their defense will keep them in the contest, but the offense must step up and score points.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Jacksonville to win

Under total points (take anything under 40)

Kansas City at NY Jets

Kansas City won one! They may have done it off a ridiculous Hail Mary play and against a Chicago side without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, but they won and must get the credit they deserve.

However, that was last week, and this week, they must travel to the Jets, a side fresh off a thumping win over the Redskins, as Mark Sanchez and the offense put up their highest total for the year. As tempremental as he can be sometimes, Sanchez's ability to move the chain, even for small yardage, will pay dividends.

The Chiefs offense is simply non-existent, slipping to an average of 13.6 points per game. After last week's huge win, you might find the total points gets put up a score too high, because after all, this New York side is known for low-scoring dog-fight type games.

Sanchez gets two in a row as the Jets shut out the Chiefs in this one. I fancy this one could be ugly early, but will open up late for the Jets to move the chains as they please.

Hot-to-trot tips:

New York Jets to win and cover the start

Under total points (only if it's somewhere around 40. though)

Houston at Cincinnati

The Houston Texans set history last week, winning their third straight game with a different quarterback in each one. T.J. Yates looked good, and after mid-week signings of back-up quarterbacks for him, he will feel confident to take on a Bengals side coming off a divisional thrashing by the Steelers.

Andy Dalton will run a deserved second in Rookie of the Year, and the combination he has had with A.J. Green has been one of the best in the league. And they'll need to have the groove going in this one, as they line up against one of the league's best defensive units.

Houston are simply complete defensively. When you pass against them, they're averaging only 183.4 yards allowed with 17 interceptions and 35 sacks. When you run against them, should you dare, they're allowing 90.7 yards and no runs of 35-plus yards. Their machine will be going again this week against the Bengals, that's for sure.

Yet I still like Cincinnati in this one. At home, off a loss, needing to win to have any playoff hopes, they should be able to put up enough points to win this one. Yates won't offer much, so they won't need to score more than three times, and Dalton is classy enough to get by against a strong defense.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Cincinnati to win and cover the start

Under total points (take anything under 40)

New England at Washington

For those that simply read the scores and then make assumptions, then yes, New England almost got beat by the Colts last week. For those that actually watched the game, they'll know that the Patriots shut off halfway through the third quarter, and despite a late scare, were not going to lose that one.

Brady is playing another brilliant year, and without this guy Aaron Rodgers, would be right in the mix for MVP. Still, the Patriots should have too much for the Washington Redskins in this one, who were embarrassed last week by the Jets.

For those that want to argue, ask yourself if the Redskins defense can stop the 30-plus points that the Patriots are averaging. If the answer is no, which it is, then ask yourself whether an offense without a running game and relying on Rex Grossman is going to cope against the secondary of the Patriots that, whilst fragile, is prolific at taking the ball away from you.

New England have a habit of starting games slowly, so the field goal as the first scoring play is a decent option if you're looking for some value. After watching them play Dallas, we all know Washington can't kick field goals, so don't worry about that play, either.

The Patriots win and win comfortably in this one. There's no way they let up in the final quarter in this one, either. Brady will move the boys on to 10-2 and will reach the top seed in the AFC in doing so.

P.S.: How good is Gronkowski playing? Full credit to the big man for his hard work and perseverance.

Hot-to-trot tips:

New England to win and cover the start

New England field goal as the first scoring play

Rob Gronkowski to score the first touchdown

Atlanta at Carolina

Cam Newton is playing lights out this year; no questions. He should be named Rookie of the Year, and after setting the record for the most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in a season, he will be ready at home for the Atlanta Falcons.

Matt Ryan and the Falcons are a funny side in that you're not quite sure how they'll play. Ryan won't ever play bad, but just how good he'll play remains to be seen.

What we are sure about is that the run-happy Panthers will struggle to run against them. Only 90 yards per game allowed with three runs of 20-plus yards, and that's it.

As for Atlanta's running game, which has struggled to get going, this week is the week that it explodes. Carolina are fielding rookies at defensive tackle and two starters are missing at linebacker. Michael Turner could have a field day in this one. I also think that this plays into Ryan's hands, who will chalk up his biggest yards total of the year so far.

Carolina are always good for points, so the over looks like a sure thing, but they won't be good enough for a win in this one. Matt Ryan and the offense will have too much experience for Cam Newton, who will have another great game that the Panthers end up losing.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Atlanta to win and cover the start

Over total points (take anything up to about 50)

Michael Turner to score the first touchdown

Philadelphia at Miami

There has to be something in the water around Miami at the moment, because the once 0-7 Dolphins are now 4-8 and will be more than ready at home for an Eagles that has one word around it this year: disappointment. They were probably never going to win the Super Bowl, but they were expected to do better than 4-8 and nearly last in the division.

LeSean McCoy is the only good thing offensively about the Eagles. Yep—the only thing. They will be able to rush Matt Moore and force a turnover or two, but Moore has shown that he is good enough to beat the pass rush in recent games. Thus, you're going to be looking at McCoy to carry this offense, and so far, he has done so, and will probably end up leading the league in rushing yards after injuries to Matt Forte and Fred Jackson.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been strong on some levels, allowing only 229.2 passing yards and 115.6 rushing yards, but they're also conceding the league's highest passing touchdowns and 11 rushing touchdowns.

The over/under for Philly games has a tendency to be high, as they do have the ability to score points, and an even greater ability to concede points, but I'd stay away from it in this one.

There's something happening in Miami, and although they'll finish with a losing record, they're making some noise and are playing quality football. Expect that to continue with the home crowd behind them and very much against the once-called Dream Team.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Miami to win

Reggie Bush to score the first touchdown

New Orleans at Tennessee

You'll have to pretty darn good to beat the Saints at home this year. Drew Brees is having another amazing year, and will continue to chalk up the yards as long as the sky is still blue. And for all those who hate the yards stat, keep in mind he's completing at the exact same rate as Aaron Rodgers without the same quality of wide receivers and tight ends.

When you've got the option of Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas too, your offense is rather difficult to defend against, hence the average 32.8 points per game.

Tennessee still have a playoff hope, but I think it's pretty clear that dream faces a rather tough test here. The lack of a running game will hurt the Titans, who've only managed to score six touchdowns that didn't come from the air.

New Orleans doesn't pose a whole lot of defensive threat, but on one level, they probably don't care a whole lot; they'll just score it back on you. There's not a whole lot else to say other than the Saints will continue to march on and take the win here.

Good game for Matt Hasselbeck. Just not good enough, though.

Hot-to-trot tips:

New Orleans to win and cover the start

Over total points (take anything up to around 55)

New Orleans touchdown as the first scoring play

Indianapolis at Baltimore

The 9-3 Ravens are at home against the 0-12 Colts. Perhaps we should go through the Colts game plan in this one, as they look to pull off the upset of the millennium?

1. Don't run against Baltimore. They're allowing only 88.8 yards per game running, with their longest allowed run being that of a huge 23 yards.

2. Don't pass the ball against Baltimore. They've taken 13 interceptions and allowed only eight touchdowns for the year.

3. Score lots of points against Baltimore. Whilst they're only putting up 24.7 points per game, against the defense of the Colts, that number looks set to rise a notch or two.

The problem? Indianapolis is only scoring 14.5 points per game. Oh, dear.

Doesn't look great for Colts fans, and that's because it's not going to be. Joe Flacco will use this game as target practice, and Ray Rice will use this game to increase his numbers. Points will be at a premium for the Colts, and hoping that Flacco throws 10 interceptions is the only chance they have of staying close in this one.

Interestingly, though, the Colts are usually involved in high scoring games, though they often don't do a lot of scoring. The over looks like a safe option, considering there is a chance it will be too low because it's Baltimore playing.

And Ray Rice, fresh off a 200-yard running game, will look to get the ball time and time again against the defense of the Colts. When you lead your team in both passing and rushing yards, chances are you're going to score a couple of times against the worst defense in the league.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Baltimore to win and cover the start

Over total points (take anything up to around 48)

Ray Rice to score the first touchdown

Minnesota at Detroit

Christian Ponder has been one of the under-appreciated finds of the year. He has the Minnesota faithful excited about the future, and whilst he's not winning the games they'd like him to win, he is still playing quality football.

Matthew Stafford, on the other hand, has the Lions offense chalking up 281.3 passing yards per game for 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions across the year. Against a Vikings side ranked 26th in pass defense and only notching up six interceptions all year, Stafford will feel comfortable to throw the ball all around the field.

Interestingly, Calvin Johnson hasn't had a 100-plus yard game in recent weeks, probably because he's getting double-teamed on every play. Against the Minnesota defense, expect him to bounce back to his usual ways.

The Detroit Lions have averaged over 27 points per game this year, and whilst Minnesota is only averaging 20.6, the total points for Lions games has the potential to be too high. And when Detroit and New Orleans can't manage to get the over points, I'm sticking with the under on this one.

Adrian Peterson has to play if the Vikings have any hope of winning this one, but even if he does, it's simply just prolonging the inevitable. The Lions will run out the winners in this one and will chalk up a divisional win that could prove crucial come playoff time.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Detroit to win and cover the start 

Under total points (take anything down to around 40)

Detroit touchdown as the first scoring play

Chicago at Denver

Tim Tebow has revolutionized the Denver Broncos and is going a long way to do the same thing to the NFL. Why? He's winning games. Is he doing it conventionally? No, but a win is a win. I'm not a Tebow fan, but after seeing him pass the ball successfully last week, I'm willing to give him some more space this week.

The Broncos have won their last five and now sit atop the division and will have the home crowd in a frenzy for this one, ready to take on whoever comes at them.

Which is probably not good for the Chicago Bears who, without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, will struggle in this one. Change that. They'll do more than struggle; they'll be pathetic.

Denver now leads the league in rushing whilst sitting 31st in passing, Chicago without Cutler won't be too much higher than that. It will be interesting to see if the 96.3 rushing yards the Bears are allowing per game holds up against the Broncos.

My head says that sooner or later, a defensive unit is going to shut down Tebow, and for the most part, Chicago should do just that. Tebow will either be just too good, or Chicago will just be too poor for the result to be anything but a home victory. As long as they don't kick to Devin Hester.

Considering Denver's ability to leave winning until the final quarter with a late touchdown or field goal, I'm steering away from the spread, as it only looks dangerous. There's enough value and security in taking Denver straight up.

Last week's high-scoring game by Denver shouldn't happen in this one, with two defensive-minded sides coming together, meaning we're all also over the under here.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Denver to win

Under total points (take anything down to around 40) 

Denver field goal as the first scoring play

San Francisco at Arizona

They must be pretty happy over in San Francisco after clinching the division, but with the No. 2 seed in the NFC in their sights, they won't be letting up late in the season.

Teams have all put stopped trying to run against the 49ers, as their 71.8 yards per game is dominating enough to frighten most sides, especially those without much of a running game, like the Cardinals. Beanie Wells is not going to be able to carry the team in this one, meaning that Kevin Kolb will need to step up, something he hasn't done all year.

Alex Smith hasn't set the world on fire with only 183.5 passing yards per game and only 15 touchdown passes for the year, but he's been more than good enough. He's thrown the league's lowest amount of interceptions, and with Frank Gore as an option, the Arizona Cardinals will be hard-pressed to stop San Francisco moving the chain.

It should be another stranglehold from the 49ers this week, and Kolb won't score more than once, if he scores at all. The over/under won't be a lot, and against the 25th-ranked passing defense, I like Smith to have a big game, even in Arizona. They've got to go over sooner or later, and I think this week looks as good as anything.

Patrick Peterson has been great at his kick and punt returns of recent weeks and should be able to get the Cardinals into good field position early, and even though they won't be able to score a touchdown, they will be in range for a field goal.

Frank Gore is a phenomenal runner, and his athleticism will carry him to another 100-plus yard game. He'll be good for an early touchdown, too.

Hot-to-trot tips:

San Francisco to win and cover the start

Over total points (take anything up to around 40)

Arizona field goal as the first scoring play

Frank Gore to score the first touchdown

Buffalo at San Diego

ESPN tweeted on Monday Night, "Welcome back Philip Rivers" and I couldn't agree more. For a team that boasted such depth in playing talent and such potential at the start of the year, sitting dead last in the division was simply not acceptable. Losing games to Kansas City and Denver was not acceptable, either, but they put that behind them for a strong win over the Jaguars, with Rivers throwing for 294 yards and Ryan Matthews rushing for 112.

They broke down the strong Jaguar defense and now face a Buffalo side without running machine Fred Jackson and have a great chance for back-to-back wins.

Defensively, both the Chargers and the Bills are quite strong, with Buffalo having just a few questions regarding their rush defense. Ryan Matthews was strong last week against Jacksonville, and so against a weaker run defense, I'd be backing him to have an even stronger game here.

The key for me is that although they rank only mid-field in terms of yards allowed, Buffalo are allowing the league's second-highest yards per carry at 4.7 and are allowing the league's second-highest completion rate at 64.3 percent.

The only team that's worse than them is the Indianapolis Colts, so the Bills do have their worries, and if the Chargers offense can turn up like it did on Monday, then it should have no troubles at home in this one.

I wrote earlier in the year that the Chargers would still win their division, and after the loss to Denver, this probably isn't going to happen, but they can still make a run for the playoffs. The equation is simple: To make the playoffs, you have to win every game from here on it.

Will they do it? Time will tell, but for now they are, as the Chargers get two wins in a row and begin to get the San Diego train rolling again.

Hot-to-trot tips:

San Diego to win and cover the start

Ryan Matthews as the first touchdown scorer

Oakland at Green Bay

There's something funny about the Green Bay Packers in that whilst tied at 35-35 with under a minute to go, deep in their own half, we all knew they would win. And in two passes for Rodgers, they had the game sewn up. I think many will look at that game and see how beatable the Packers are—how the Giants almost got there, how easy it can be—whereas I look at that game and see how unbeatable the Pack are.

That was the game that could have ruined their perfect season, and it looks pretty easy from here on in for the green and gold, with Oakland and a couple of divisional games to come as well. It'll be nice and cold at Lambeau Field, something Rodgers will thrive on and whilst he will probably throw less passes at a lower percentage, the ground game of James Starks and Ryan Grant will tell here.

Oakland will be proud of their running game, though they are more than ready for Darren McFadden to come back into the fold. They looked like being the divisional winners, and then they get pummeled by the Miami Dolphins. Now, either the 4-8 Dolphins are a lot better than we thought—which they probably are—or the Raiders are not quite there yet—which they're not.

With Charles Woodson out, the Green Bay secondary is exposed, and a good quarterback would be able to take advantage of that. Tom Brady could. Drew Brees could. Eli Manning could.

Carson Palmer can not. He is not good enough to do it in the cold at Green Bay against the pass rush of Clay Matthews and the boys. The running game will struggle to get going, as Palmer tries to throw the ball out of trouble and throws it straight down the throat of Charlie Peprah.

It's nice and cold in Green Bay, and considering the points they're putting up lately, the points total will be quite high. I don't mind having a crack at the under here, seeing that Palmer is unlikely to put a whole lot of points up on his end.

I expect a lot of running, especially early in the game, so I'd be looking at either Starks or Grant for the first touchdown. Flip a coin in that one; mine came down Grant.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Green Bay to win and cover the start

Under total points (take anything down to about 48)

Ryan Grant to score the first touchdown

NY Giants at Dallas

Isn't it funny that even after a loss and on the road to the field of the divisional leaders, all the momentum will be with the New York Giants? You might disagree, but the Giants were never really going to beat the Saints or the Packers, and they needed the Cowboys to slip up a game if they were to stay in the divisional hunt.

And after a field goal, a timeout and then a missed field goal against the Arizona Cardinals, that's exactly what the Giants got. The gap now sits a single game, and the winner of this one takes the divisional lead. Three weeks ago, I wrote about it here and have so far been spot on in terms of what's going to happen in this division.

Eli Manning will take great confidence off last week's loss, and after getting in the groove with his wide receivers, I'd be keen to take that combination again this week.

Dallas will be fuming over last week, but even if they had won, they would have only beaten the Arizona Cardinals 16-13. The Cardinals! Add to that New York is on a three-game losing streak and will have been gearing up for this one for quite a while now.

The only concern for me is to whether New York can get their running game going, which they are ranked dead last in the league, averaging only 83.8 yards per game. However, they have managed to score 11 rushing touchdowns all year, which is seven more than the Cowboys, proving that they can run successful rushing plays on goal-line situations.

Dallas' defense will hold up better than Green Bay's did last week, so expect the Giants to score a few less points in this one. Offensively, I think Dallas will be lucky to get about 20 points in this one, so the under looks interesting.

Big game? Give me Manning over Romo any day of the week. There's just something about Tony Romo that is uneasy at the moment, and whilst it might be nothing, this is not the game to be having cold feet.

Hot-to-trot tips:

New York Giants to win

Under total points (take anything down to around 45)

Dallas field goal as the first scoring play

Brandon Jacobs first touchdown scorer

St. Louis at Seattle

Seattle were good last week disposing of Philly and should be far too good for St. Louis in this one who are fresh of a shutout against the defensive powerhouse of the 49ers.

Marshawn Lynch will have another field day against the Rams defense, and I'd be all over him to put up some early points for the Seahawks in this one. Considering how comfortable he was against the No. 2-ranked rush defense, imagine how comfortable he's going to be against the No. 32-ranked run defense.

Sam Bradford's injury is limiting his ability to throw high-quality completions this year, as is the lack of talent he has in the side. Now, Bradford is out injured, as is A.J. Feeley. It's up to Tom Brandstater to steer the ship. Yeah, good luck on that one.

With St. Louis not offering anything much offensively and Seattle offering Lynch, I'd be on the under. Like, real under. And I'd be on the Rams to cover the spread.

The Rams haven't won a divisional game all year and look set to slip to 2-11 after this one is done. With nothing to gain or lose for either side, take the home side with the better offense every single time.

Oh yeah, and I hope you like field goals, because there could be just a few in this one.

Hot-to-trot tips:

Seattle to win and cover the start

Under total points (take anything down to around 40)

Seattle field goal as the first scoring play

Marshawn Lynch as the first touchdown scorer