How Does a Healthy Peyton Manning Affect Colts' Decision to Draft Andrew Luck?

Now that Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck has confirmed that he intends to declare for the 2012 NFL draft and the Indianapolis Colts are 0-12 and likely to wind up with the No. 1 overall pick in April, all of the speculation that the team would wind up with the coveted quarterback has started to get even hotter.

However, just because the Colts end their season with the No. 1 pick in their pocket doesn't necessarily mean that selecting Luck is their only or best option. That depends primarily on the health of their veteran starter Peyton Manning, who has missed all of the 2011 regular season while he heals from neck surgery.

While Manning's absence put the team at a significant disadvantage heading into the season, a number of other problems in all phases of the game are the true reasons why the team has yet to notch a victory this year.

A team doesn't go from one of the most productive offenses in the league to one of the worst just by losing a quarterback, and it certainly doesn't influence the team ultimately fielding the 31st-ranked defense.

While coaching is partly to blame, considering the Colts' staff didn't appear to adjust their game plan much from how they approached it with Manning under center, it's clear that the team's personnel issues run far deeper than just which player is throwing the ball.

Therefore, it makes a lot more sense for Indianapolis to look elsewhere to fix what ails them should Manning become healthy enough to return for a full season in 2012.

Manning's most recent surgery in September was a spinal fusion to release pressure on a damaged nerve in his neck. It was the third procedure on his neck in 19 months, and it fueled speculation that Manning's career could be far closer to the end than anyone thought when he underwent a similar operation earlier in 2011.

It appears that the fusion has been a success this time around, with the nerve healing and Manning recently cleared to practice throwing footballs to his teammates and begin lifting weights.

If he makes significant progress in the months leading up to April's NFL draft, there's reason to believe that the team won't need to pick up a ready-to-start quarterback such as Luck this year.

That would be the Colts' best move, in my opinion.

While the issues the team has had on offense this season will largely be eliminated simply by Manning returning to the starting lineup, the problems on defense are so serious that they may not fare much better than 8-8 in 2012 even if he returns to his usual form.

Indianapolis would be better served to try to trade out of the No. 1 spot and acquire a number of higher-round picks in return with which they can attempt to rebuild their struggling defense. They can wait until 2013 to draft a successor to Manning and instead focus on making immediate improvements at the defensive positions that need it most.

The Colts need to not be locked into Luck as their pick just yet. That decision should hinge singly on Manning's health—should he be on track to play and complete a full 2012 season, then Luck should no longer be on the Colts' radar. The team just has too many problems on defense to warrant his selection.