2011 Bowl Games: Favorites That Will Obliterate Spread

Three bowl games feature matchups much more lopsided than the spreads are giving them credit for.

Differences in conference strength always makes setting a line for bowl game tricky business, but with close inspection of the circumstances, opponents and stats can reveal the truly dominant team, and predict the winner in some matchups with ease.

Like in these matchups.

Alamo Bowl: Washington vs. Baylor

Line: Baylor -10

This is going to be a high-scoring game, but in the end Washington does not have the fire power to keep up with Baylor.

Both of these teams struggle on defense. The Huskies are 99th in points allowed per game. Baylor is even worse at 109th.

Baylor's defense is slightly worse in almost every statistical category. However, their offense is significantly better in almost every offensive category.

They will also have the most dominant player on the field in Robert Griffin III. This will be too much for the Huskies to keep up with for a full game.

Prediction: Baylor 47, Washington 31

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Oregon

Line: Oregon -5.5

Oregon is just a missed field goal away from a possible spot in the title game. Instead, they get a solid consolation prize of the Rose Bowl.

On paper, this is a fairly even matchup. Wisconsin is fourth in points scored and sixth in points allowed. Oregon is third in points scored but 48th in points allowed.

Looking a little deeper though, these numbers are skewed. Oregon played three teams ranked significantly higher than anyone Wisconsin played.

Wisconsin played one team with a offense similar in style to Oregon, and that was Ohio State. They lost that game 33-29. The key stat their is the rushing yards the Badgers allowed.

The Buckeyes tallied 268 yards on the ground in that game. And the Buckeyes offense is no where near as potent as the Ducks'.

Oregon is going to dismantle Wisconsin with their ground game. The Badgers will not be able to get the fast-paced Ducks' offense off of the field, and this will lead to Oregon wearing out Wisconsin and blowing them out in the second half.

Prediction: Oregon 46, Wisconsin 34

Orange Bowl: West Virginia vs. Clemson

Line:  Clemson -3

West Virginia enters this game as an overrated entity. So we can look at the fact that they have an advantage based on the fact that Clemson is ranked 27th in points scored and 62nd in points allowed while West Virginia is 19th in points allowed and 63rd in points allowed, and throw those numbers out the window.

This is because West Virginia built up those numbers playing in the terrible Big East.

A more pertinent number for this matchup is that West Virginia doesn't have a single win against a ranked team. Clemson has two wins against a ranked team. Both wins were against Virginia Tech.

Clemson also has two other wins that came against teams that were ranked at the time they played.

West Virginia likes to move the ball through the air. They are eighth in passing yards and 100th in rushing yards per game.

Clemson has done a decent job of defending the pass. They allowed just 2,638 passing yards on the season with 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. This will allow Clemson to slow down the Mountaineers off the field enough to allow their balanced offense to take over.

Prediction: Clemson 27, West Virginia 18

*Point spreads via Kegs 'n Eggs