BCS Bowl Predictions: How Will the SEC Fare?

The 2011 College Football season is drawing to a close.  For many fans, this is a sad time of year. 

However, instead of waiting for Saturdays to get their fix, the true college football junkie will be inundated with games almost every day starting on December 17th.

For fans of the SEC, it is important to re-establish their dominance as the premier conference in all of the FBS.

Undoubtedly, with each SEC bowl victory this season, you will hear that team's fans chant "SEC!  SEC!"...and when an SEC team loses a bowl game, you will hear the victorious team's taunt/chant of "SEC!  SEC!" 

Fans of other conferences are tired of all the SEC hype, and almost never miss a chance to rub it in during bowl season.

Eight teams from the SEC will be competing in bowls this year, along with Missouri and Texas A&M, who will join the conference next season.  With the top two teams in the country coming from the SEC West, all eyes will be on the six remaining SEC teams to secure wins and cement the SEC's dominance for another year.

So, who will win and who will lose? 

I will make some quick picks designed to stimulate conversation in the following slides.  Keep in mind, these slides will not be full of stats and rankings.  These are simply snap judgements based on how I believe these teams match up.

I welcome all criticism, both constructive and otherwise.  Let the debate begin! 

Music City Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest

This matchup is intriguing when you take into consideration that Dan Mullen may be the next Penn State football coach before the season is concluded.  Will this distract him and his team from the job at hand? 

Mississippi State had a pretty brutal schedule.  Outside of the powerhouse SEC West, the Bulldogs lost to SEC East foes Georgia and South Carolina.  

Most SEC fans will agree that this team underachieved this season. Squeaking out wins against a down Kentucky team and barely escaping Louisiana Tech in overtime, the Bulldogs suffered numerous setbacks this season on both sides of the ball. 

With all of this information, coupled with outside distractions of "will Dan stay or will he go?" and Wake Forest wins this game.  I don't know much about them other than that they lost badly to Vanderbilt.  Don't worry about it.  Mississippi State self-destructs and loses this game. 

However, I will add an asterisk to this pick:  If Dan Mullen should accept the Penn State job before this game; I think Mississippi State may play inspired enough to send him out with a win.  For now, give me Wake Forest.

Winner: Wake Forest 

Liberty Bowl: Vanderbilt vs. Cincinnati

For starters, I think Vanderbilt is on the cusp of a very special 2012 season. 

They need to finish strong in the Liberty Bowl to enter the offseason with some momentum.  I believe they will do just that against Cincinnati. 

Vandy played down to the wire against the SEC's best this year, suffering heartbreaking losses to Arkansas, Georgia and South Carolina. 

Expect the Vandy crowd to travel well three hours down the road to Memphis.  Remember, historically, Vandy isn't bowl-eligible very often, and their fan base should be excited to showcase their young, unsung talent on a national stage. 

I don't think Vandy just wins this game—I think Vandy wins it going away.

Winner: Vanderbilt

Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Virginia vs. Auburn

Auburn is a bad football team by SEC standards, and a mediocre team otherwise.  Their offense is stagnant, and their defense has been exposed several times. 

That being said, Virginia is a quandary.  Great wins against quality opponents Georgia Tech and Florida State are numbed by lucking by Idaho in overtime and getting shellacked by Virginia Tech on the final game of the season. 

Ranked No. 25 by the BCS, Auburn is overrated.  On the flip side, Virginia is bad also.  I think Auburn is worse, so I'll take Virginia.  Embarrassing loss for the defending national champs here.

Winner: Virginia

Capital One Bowl: Nebraska vs. South Carolina

The Capital One Bowl gives us one of the best matchups of the bowl season. 

South Carolina has held it together despite an up-and-down season.  They lost their starting running back for the season.  They kicked off their senior starting quarterback.  Through it all, Steve Spurrier delivered a 10-win season and delivered the coup-de-grace to rival Clemson in their bitter in-state duel.

As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friend.

Bo Pellini knows the SEC well from his time as defensive coordinator at LSU.  He has recruited well and rebuilt Nebraska into a legitimate BCS threat next season.

This game comes down to Pellini's defense vs. Spurrier's offense.  I think the absence of Marcus Lattimore in this game makes it too tough for South Carolina to score.  Plus, I will always take defense over offense. 

No disrespect to the South Carolina defense, but I'll take Nebraska for a close win.

Winner: Nebraska

Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs. Georgia

The SEC East Champions are going to have their hands full in this game. 

Michigan State is a formidable opponent, but has suffered blowout losses to Notre Dame and Nebraska on the road.  Sunny Tampa, Florida will be a road game for the Spartans. 

Georgia has three losses on its record.  Against Boise State and LSU, they were physically overmatched.  Against South Carolina, they simply self-destructed, and ultimately gave the game away. 

Michigan State has a good offense and an average defense.  Georgia has a good defense and an average offense.  As long as they don't beat themselves, I think the Dawgs win this one. 

I'll take good defense over good offense any day of the week.

Winner: Georgia

Gator Bowl: Ohio State vs. Florida

Florida has struggled under first-year coach Will Muschamp.  They have struggled even more to find their footing under offensive coordinator Charlie Weis.  Florida's defense has played well in stretches, however. The Gators were also demoralized by a tough schedule. 

Ohio State is no slouch, but are in turmoil nonetheless.  The Ohio State administration basically named a coach-in-waiting, without waiting.  It almost seems as if Ohio State can't wait for next season and Urban Meyer. 

Ohio State coach Luke Fickell will likely remain on Meyer's staff next season, but probably still has some bitterness about the timing of this announcement. 

He will coach with a chip on his shoulder, but he is coaching a team that lost a lot of talent and experience when Terrelle Pryor bowed out from the controversy surrounding the program.

Ultimately, I think Florida's fans and their coaching staff need this game more than Ohio State, and that's why I'm picking the Gators.  This one is a toss-up.  I think the mitigating circumstances surrounding this game, coupled with the Gators' SEC defense, will lead them to a close victory. 

Think about how sweet it would be for Urban Meyer's old players to hand his new ones a loss.

Winner: Florida 

Cotton Bowl: Arkansas vs. Kansas State

Long-tenured Kansas State coach Bill Snyder has brought his Wildcats back to national prominence this season with 10 wins.  His team can score, and has proven that they can win a shootout. 

However, they have not proven that they can play defense.

On the other hand, Arkansas also has proven that they can win a shootout.  Arkansas has a few questionable wins, including a five-point win against an atrocious Ole Miss team and a lucky last-second victory at Vanderbilt.

As even as this matchup looks, it shouldn't be. 

Arkansas' only losses are to Alabama and LSU, the No. 1 and  No. 2 teams in the country.  Kansas State got blown out by Oklahoma, and won a 10-7 pillow fight with Eastern Kentucky to open the season.

I think Bobby Petrino's innovative offense will score all day on Bill Snyder's old-school defensive unit.  The only way Arkansas loses this one is if they fail to stop Kansas State's offense one time. 

Expect nothing but points in this one, but Arkansas should win comfortably.

Winner: Arkansas

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama vs. LSU

Well, the suspense is over. 

The rematch will happen—LSU and Alabama will play Armageddon Part 2, and the SEC will win its sixth consecutive national championship.  I shouldn't have to rehash the resumes of either one of these teams.  Suffice it to say, LSU won Armageddon No. 1 by a score of 9-6 in overtime.

I have to make a pick here, and its probably not going to be a popular one.  I live in Baton Rouge, and work mere blocks from LSU's campus.

I am a neutral fan in this game, but will be in attendance to watch potential history being made.

Sorry, LSU, but I believe 'Bama wins the rematch.  The only team that can match LSU defensively is the Tide, and while some signs may point to LSU here, I like 'Bama to win.

I think 'Bama won the first matchup statistically, but failed to make the plays they needed to make to win the game.  The Tide suffered a coaching meltdown in overtime, and LSU showed poise to finish victoriously.

I think we will see more action and offense in this game than the first time around.  There will be plenty of defense, but both teams have plenty of playmakers that can put points on the board.

On a side note, imagine how bitter the 2012 matchup between these two teams will be in Baton Rouge, should the Tide upset the Tigers in New Orleans.

Winner: Alabama

Conclusion: SEC Is Dominant but Not Unbeatable

If I am correct, the SEC will finish this bowl season 4-3.  The BCS National Championship will be awash in rankings since one SEC team will win and one will lose.

I expect to see some big coaching moves in the offseason. 

The schools normally keep it in the family; recent head coaching hires in the conference show that most SEC schools require at least some SEC coaching experience. 

Hot assistant coaches Greg Studrawa of LSU, Kirby Smart of Alabama and Gus Malzahn of Auburn have been mentioned as possible head coaching candidates.

Current head coach Dan Mullen may also be gone after the season.  One thing is for certain in the SEC coaching carousel—you are always one season away from greatness or one season away from the unemployment line.

That is what makes the conference so great.  The competition is so fierce that nothing is ever good enough but the best. We spend all regular season whipping up on each other. 

It's nice to spend the bowl season whipping up on everyone else!