Southern Miss vs. Houston: Latest Spread Info, BCS Impact and Predictions

In what promises to be an entertaining matchup, the undefeated and No. 6-ranked Houston Cougars will host the No. 24 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles in the Conference USA Championship Game. Should the Cougars win, they will receive the first bid to a BCS bowl in the program's history.

Houston has bounced back this season in a big way after a 5-7 mark in 2010. Most of that has to do with the return of quarterback Case Keenum from injury and his subsequent domination. Keenum has launched an unmatched aerial assault as the Cougars lead the nation with 52.7 points per game.

While Southern Miss hasn't gotten the same publicity as Houston, the Golden Eagles have an extremely fruitful season as well with a record of 10-2. They should enter the game loose as the pressure is squarely on the shoulders of the Cougars as they are expected to win and go to a BCS bowl.

While other conference championships like UCLA vs. Oregon and Georgia vs. LSU aren't overly appealing, this should be a game with plenty of offensive fireworks and a fairly close result. Win or lose, though, Houston has certainly captivated many college football fans this season.

Where: Robertson Stadium in Houston

When: Saturday, Dec. 3 at 12 p.m. EST

Watch: ABC

Spread: Houston (-14.5)

The casual observer may think Houston will run away with this game due to its offensive dominance this season, but I find Southern Miss to be a very underrated squad. A spread of 14.5 points seems about right, but I would lean toward picking the Golden Eagles plus the points in this one as their two losses this season were by a combined nine points.

Southern Miss is no slouch in the scoring department either, and I feel Houston's defense is a bit overrated due to its easy schedule. This isn't going to be one of those cakewalks that Cougars fans have grown accustomed to. I like Houston to come out on top, but Southern Miss should stay within two scores.

Over/Under: 73

Considering the fact Houston has twice scored 73 points in a game on its own this season, an over/under of 73 is attainable. No matter how I look at this game, though, I don't see it being as high scoring as many of the Cougars games have been.

Southern Miss isn't going to just shrivel up and die like some of Houston's other opponents have this season. I see both teams getting on the scoreboard a decent amount, but it would have to be a major shootout to exceed 73 points. I do think the total will get close to 73, but the under is the far safer bet in this instance.

Southern Miss key injuries

Doubtful: QB Chris Campbell (undisclosed)

Questionable: RB Kendrick Hardy (shoulder)

Houston key injuries

No injuries to report

BCS/Top 25 Implications

The BCS implications in this game are pretty clear. If Houston wins, it will receive an automatic bid to a BCS bowl. If the Cougars lose, however, it will likely open the door for a team like Boise State. With that in mind, the work is far from over for the Cougars as an undefeated regular season could easily be squandered with a loss to Southern Miss.

For Southern Miss, a win wouldn't earn it a BCS berth, but it would certainly move the Golden Eagles up in the rankings and get them into a higher-profile bowl game. There is no question this game is much bigger from Houston's perspective than it is Southern Miss', but the Golden Eagles would love to cap off the season with a conference title.

Keys to Southern Miss win

Although Houston does have a solid tandem of running backs, the Cougars' bread and butter is unquestionably Case Keenum and the passing game. Keenum's passes are high in both volume and efficiency, so it would be nearly impossible for the Golden Eagles to shut down the Cougars completely in that regard, but they have to disrupt Keenum's timing.

The best way to do that would be with a strong pass rush, but even then Keenum likely has the awareness to get rid of the ball quickly. On offense Southern Miss will have to have plenty of balance. It is a pass-first team as well, but it will need to establish the run in order to keep Houston's offense off the field a bit. If the Golden Eagles can do that, their chances of winning will be much higher.

Keys to Houston win

Provided Houston executes offensively like it has all season, I don't think Southern Miss has the horses to keep up. That means that Keenum will have to run the spread offense to perfection as he so often does. The Golden Eagles are better on defense than most of their opponents have been this season, though, so it is easier said than done.

On defense the focus has to be on stopping quarterback Austin Davis. While Davis and the Southern Miss offense is nowhere near as explosive as Houston's, they are very capable of putting points on the board. If Houston can hold Davis in check, the Golden Eagles likely don't have a potent enough running game to make them pay.

Prediction

Houston 41, Southern Miss 30