Bills vs Titans Week 13 Preview and Keys to the Game

This Sunday, the Buffalo Bills (5-6) will host the Tennessee Titans (6-5) at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills finished their three-game road trip at 0-3 and are trying to break a four-game losing streak.

The Titans beat Tampa Bay last week, and they trail the Houston Texans by two games in the AFC South division.

The Bills are on the brink of being eliminated from the playoffs, so if they can find a way to win their final five games and finish at 10-6, they might have a shot to get in. But for a team that has lost as many key players as they have and starting as many rookies as they are forced to start, winning five straight appears to be a tall order.

The Titans finally saw running back Chris Johnson emerge last Sunday, as he erupted for 199 yards against the Bucs. Johnson is now up to 699 rushing yards on the year, and wouldn't you know that he is finally figuring things out just in time to meet the Bills. Just the Bills' luck.

The game is not expected to be a sell-out, so it is expected to be blacked out in Western New York. The game will be broadcast by CBS.

What to Expect from Bills Offense This Week?

As far as the offense goes, it looks like Brad Smith is now a full-time wide receiver. I can't recall the last time the Bills asked Smith to run the wildcat offense, but they have seemingly gone away from that, even though his conversion rate was highly successful.

Steve Johnson will look to have a solid game and will be on his best behavior after all of the turmoil that his touchdown celebration caused last week against the New York Jets. If Johnson scores this Sunday, he vowed that he will not do any celebrating. We will see if he can keep his word or not.

David Nelson should be in the slot this week, leaving Naaman Roosevelt and Derek Hagan to battle it out for fourth or fifth wide receiver on the depth chart.

The offensive line figures to be the same, with Chris Hairston at left tackle, Andy Levitre at left guard, Kraig Urbik at center, Chad Rinehart at right guard and Erik Pears at right tackle. Ryan Fitzpatrick moved up to take snaps directly from under the center last week, and with the way the offense moved the ball against a good defense like the Jets, expect Fitzpatrick to do that for the rest of the season.

C.J. Spiller expects to be the featured running back from here on out. The only question will be how many snaps do they want to rotate Tashard Choice and Johnny White into the mix? As for Spiller, we would like to see him break some tackles this week, as he went down too easily last week against the Jets.

What Happened to the Bills Safeties Against the Jets?

I don't know specifically what it is about playing the New York Jets that makes their offense so unique, but for some reason, the Bills safeties go into hiding against the Jets. I just literally stumbled upon this discovery this morning, but if you go back and do the research, the Bills safeties are basically missing in action against the Jets. Let me expand on my discovery.

Out of the Bills 11 games this year, a safety has been the leading tackler, or the second-leading tackler, in every game this year, except for the two games against the Jets. Sometimes, the safeties are the two leading tacklers, and if you count Bryan Scott as a safety, there have been games when George Wilson, Jairus Byrd and Scott were the three leading tacklers in a game.

But against the Jets, they are buried down the list on tackles.

Even when rookie Da'Norris Searcy replaced Wilson as the starting safety, he led the team in tackles against the Miami Dolphins. But against the Jets, he only had three tackles. There has to be something more to it than just pure coincidence.

What to Expect from Bills Defense This Week

The Bills are still waiting to learn if George Wilson is deemed healthy enough to play this Sunday. If he can go, that will be a boost to the secondary since there are so many rookies playing back there right now. Against the Jets, the Bills started Da'Norris Searcy and Aaron Williams, with Justin Rogers seeing significant snaps in the game as well.

The rookies play hard, but they are prone to making mental errors, which helps to explain why the Jets had so many receivers wide open in the end zone last Sunday. This week, we learn that the Titans are the No. 1 offense in the NFL in the red zone, and they usually resort to the pass when they get close, so they are probably licking their chops after watching the Bills vs. Jets tape. Thanks to Chris Brown at Buffalo Bills.com for pointing out the above information on the Titans.

The only other change this week is that the Bills have decided to place Torrell Troup on season-ending IR, as Troup has seen his bad back issues continue to thwart his ability to be effective at nose tackle. The Bills are replacing him on the active roster by activating defensive lineman Lionel Dotson from the practice squad. The Bills also added LB Robert Eddins to the practice squad to fill that vacancy.

The Bills have been using Kellen Heard to backup Marcell Dareus at nose tackle, so that should probably continue throughout the rest of the year. No other changes are expected on defense this week unless Wilson returns to the starting lineup.

What to Make of Steve Johnson's Long-Term Status?

There is no doubt that Steve Johnson answers to the beat of a different drummer. From all of his tattoos, the way he wears a baseball cap, the jewelry on his face and ears, the clothes he wears, Johnson is just one of those guys that is his own person, and if you like it, fine, and if you don't, that is fine as well.

The touchdown celebrations have bordered on the fine line from entertaining to bad taste. Mocking Plaxico Burress shooting himself was in bad taste, but according to Johnson, that was supposed to be funny. I think Johnson has a fairly warped sense of humor.

Then, you take into account the drops and the infamous blaming God in his tweets after the loss to Pittsburgh last year, and you wonder how all of these incidents are influencing what the Bills finally decide to do about signing Johnson to a long-term contract, since he is playing on the final year of his contract this year.

From a talent perspective, there is no doubt that Johnson has a unique blend of skills and God-given talent that makes him an integral part of the Bills offense for years to come. The way that Johnson routinely beat the Jets All-Pro corner Darrelle Revis in both games this year, proves his worth to the team. Sure, the touchdowns are down, and the yards after catch (YAC) are down this year, but I think everybody rather expected that to be the case when the Bills decided to trade Lee Evans away.

The trade of Evans and the injuries to Marcus Easley and Donald Jones have allowed defenses to not worry so much about being beat deep by the Bills, so they could focus more of their coverage to wherever Johnson was running his patterns. In one of the few targets this year where it appeared he had plenty of room to run after the catch, it turned out to be the infamous dropped pass at the 20-yard line in the final minute of the Jets game.

I don't know how the contract negotiations will work out. I know that Johnson wants to be here, but he wants to be paid as well. He is only making $550,000. this year. Many teams will place a value on him, so the Bills will need to step up to retain him. The question is, how much are they willing to pay to keep him in Buffalo?

Rookies Are Getting Lots of Exposure in December

The Bills rookie class of 2011 is getting some pretty valuable playing time experience in December. From Marcell Dareus, Aaron Williams, Kelvin Sheppard, Da'Norris Searcy and Chris Hairston, all of them have seen the field in a starting capacity.

Justin Rogers and Johnny White will have also received a chance to play, with White hoping to see more reps in December. Chris White was performing well on special teams until he went down to the IR list.

Only Michael Jasper has failed to be active with the team this year.

The rookie class frankly has outperformed the 2010 class. C.J. Spiller had an OK game starting for Fred Jackson last week, but I wouldn't call it a special performance. Torell Troup just went on the IR list today. Alex Carrington makes an occasional play, but is not a consistent force.

Same thing can be said for Arthur Moats and Danny Batten, as the Bills are still waiting for somebody to turn into a pass rusher. Marcus Easley is also on IR, and Kyle Calloway, Ed Wang and Levi Brown are no longer even with the team.

Who exactly from the 2010 draft class is going to be the player that the Bills will be able to look back on and say that he was the steal of the draft class? Coming into the 2011 season, everyone was looking forward to the contributions of Troup, Carrington, Batten and Moats to help out with the pass rush, myself included. That quarter has managed to generate two sacks over the first 11 games, as Carrington has one sack, and Batten and Moats only have one half of a sack for each. Disgraceful results.

And to think that Aaron Maybin has more sacks on the Jets team than these guys have combined bothers me greatly as well.

What Is New in Tennessee?

The Bills last played the Titans in 2009. Since then, the franchise has undergone a number of significant changes. It goes without saying that the Bills have made a number of sweeping changes to their organization since 2009 as well.

Jeff Fisher is no longer the head coach, as he has been replaced by Mike Munchak. Vince Young is no longer with the team, and Matt Hasselbeck is the new starting quarterback. Titans owner Bud Adams is still there, and I imagine that a few Bills fans will give Adams their own version of a warm welcome.

The Titans will be looking to move the ball by handing it off to Chris Johnson. Hasselbeck will look to find some open lanes with the use of play-fakes to Johnson and then trying to pick on the Bills rookies in the secondary.

The Titans may not have a good enough record to qualify for the Wild Card, so their best hope is that the Houston Texans will falter down the stretch due to their quarterback injuries. Trailing by two games with five games to go, anything is possible.

The Titans have to face the New Orleans Saints right after the Bills game, and then they close out the season against the Texans in what will probably determine who wins the AFC South.

Nothing would make the Bills feel better than to give the Titans playoff hopes a cold shower with a loss. There is the Music City Miracle that we can thank for any feelings of resentment or payback that is due to Adams and the Titans.

Inside the Numbers: When the Bills Have the Ball

Right now, the Buffalo offense is ranked at No. 14 overall in the NFL, averaging 345.5 yards per game. The Titans overall defense is ranked No. 17, allowing 353 yards per game. The numbers suggest that the Titans will not overwhelm the Bills offense, and they should generally produce what they normally do.

The Bills rush offense is still ranked No. 9 overall at 122 yards per game, but unless the current trio of C.J. Spiller, Tashard Choice and Johnny White picks it up, that number could be plummeting in the upcoming weeks. The Titans run defense is ranked No. 22, allowing 124 yards per game.

The Bills pass offense is ranked No. 19 in the league, averaging 223 yards per game. The Titans pass defense is ranked No. 13, allowing 229 yards per game. Seems like another push there.

The Bills are averaging 23.7 points per game. What the Titans defense is good at is that they don't give up a lot of points. They are ranked No. 7 in the NFL, as they only allow 19.3 points per game, which is noteworthy. So, they bend and don't break like the Bills, but when teams are in the red zone, they buckle down better and don't give up touchdowns.

The Bills convert 35.8 percent of their third down opportunities, as they have converted 48 of 134 chances on the year.

Inside the Numbers: When the Titans Have the Ball

The Tennessee Titans have the No. 20 overall ranked offense in the NFL, averaging 319 yards per game. The Bills defense is ranked No. 22 overall, allowing 367 yards per game.

The Titans have the No. 30-ranked run offense, which is hard to believe since they have had Chris Johnson all year, but that ranking reflects how terrible Johnson and the blocking on his offensive line has been for most of the year. The Bills run defense is ranked No. 21 at 123 yards per game, which is a clear improvement from where they were last year.

The Titans pass offense is ranked No.15 with an average of 230 yards per game. The Titans and Matt Hasselbeck in particular have done a good job in overcoming the loss of Kenny Britt to the IR list. The Bills pass defense is averaging 243 yards per game, ranking them at No. 22.

The Titans score an average of 20 points per game, while the Bills defense is allowing 25.5 points per game.

The Titans convert 40 percent of their third down opportunities (62-of-155).

Final Thoughts and Prediction

The Bills are glad to be returning home now that they have finished their longest road trip of the year. The offense hopes to continue to build off how they performed in New York against the Jets, as that was their best showing in four games. The Bills need to continue to explore what can C.J. Spiller do well, and by feeding him the ball, they will get their answers.

The Bills also need to know just how good of a receiver is Brad Smith, and they will also probably look to learn more about Tashard Choice, Johnny White, Namaan Roosevelt and possibly Derek Hagan this week.

For the defense, the rookies will have to do a better job in the red zone than they did last week against the Jets. The front seven will have to be focused on containing Chris Johnson and then take their chances that they can stop Matt Hasselbeck in the passing game.

The Bills are mathematically fighting for the playoffs, but the reality is that they are in a position to evaluate some of their rookies and second-year players to see what they have on their hands. All of this experience will greatly assist the year-end evaluation of what the Bills need to do to get over the hump.

Last week was the first time I predicted the Bills would lose, and sadly, I was right. This week, I am going back to my old ways and think that the Bills will end their four-game skid and put a major hurt on the Titans' flickering playoff hopes.

Final Score Prediction: Buffalo Bills 24-Tennessee Titans 20