Breaking Down a UFC Welterweight Grand Prix Without GSP

Truth be told, the UFC’s welterweight division might be the most wide-open and competitive division in the world if it wasn’t for that pesky Georges St-Pierre beating everyone up all the time.

The amount of talent in the division is almost overwhelming when you actually take the time to sit down and look at the roster, and it is actually a bit sad that so many talented fighters have been denied a UFC title due to St-Pierre’s dominance.

For the purpose of this article, let's pretend that GSP has either dropped to lightweight, moved up to middleweight to fight Anderson Silva, retired, moved on to play Jason Bourne in a new series of action films or started a waffle house in Canada somewhere.

Either way, he’s not here.

With that, the best way to decide a new champion is obviously an old-school Pride-style Grand Prix.

So sit back, enjoy if you’re so inclined, and if you feel the need to blast me in the comments, please don’t do it because of the seeding.

Round 1 Matchups

1. Nick Diaz vs 16. John Hathaway

8. Diego Sanchez vs 9. Martin Kampmann

5. Josh Koscheck vs 12. Johny Hendricks

4. Jake Ellenberger vs 13. Thiago Alves

3. Jon Fitch vs 14. Matt Hughes

6. Jake Shields vs 11. Rick Story

7. Rory MacDonald vs 10. Brian Ebersole

2. Carlos Condit vs 15. Dong Hyun Kim

1. Nick Diaz vs 16. John Hathaway

This is a pretty decent matchup between one of the top fighters in the world and one of the top prospects in the division.

But that last sentence pretty much says it all, as Diaz is a light years ahead of Hathaway in all areas of the game and will easily win this one.

8. Diego Sanchez vs 9. Martin Kampmann

In UFC Live 3’s main event, Kampmann and Sanchez put on a fight of the night performance in their first fight, but the fight was tarnished by a decision that the majority of fans disagreed with.

While Sanchez may have gotten the nod the first time, Kampmann would be smart enough to be a bit more aggressive the second time around and wins another close decision.

5. Josh Koscheck vs 12. Johny Hendricks

As good as Hendricks has been in his UFC career, I just can’t see him taking out Koscheck.

Hendricks relies on his strong wrestling to win fights and Koscheck will negate him in that area and eventually win the fight on the feet.

Koscheck wins by knockout in Round 3. 

4. Jake Ellenberger vs 13. Thiago Alves

Out of all the first round matchups, this one might be the most exciting.

Alves is fantastic on the feet but Ellenberger reminds me a little bit too much of Rick Story, who beat Alves at UFC 130.

Ellenberger by decision.

3. Jon Fitch vs 14. Matt Hughes

A few years ago this would have been an amazing fight, but Matt Hughes has noticeably declined over the last 12 months and it is extremely unlikely that he would be able to get past a fighter as good as Fitch.

Fitch would get the takedown and grind out the UFC Hall of Famer en route to a decision victory.

6. Jake Shields vs 11. Rick Story

This is a much tougher fight for Shields than the seeds indicate.

Story is a great grappler when his wrestling is on and it would be foolish to expect him to lose in that area when he fights Shields.

Story wins a close decision on the feet and earns the upset victory.

7. Rory MacDonald vs 10. Brian Ebersole

This fight was actually scheduled for next month's UFC 140 event but an injury to MacDonald ended up cancelling the bout.

Lucky for us, there are no injuries in fake fights and these two will go on to have the best fight of the first round of the tournament.

Still, the talent of MacDonald will prevail over the experience of Ebersole and in a unanimous decision.

2. Carlos Condit vs 15. Dong Hyun Kim

Well, we’ve seen this one before haven’t we?

At UFC 132, Condit knocked out Kim with a flying knee and a barrage of punches. There is really no reason that it would end up any differently this time.

Condit takes this one by a second-round TKO.

Round 2 Matchups

1. Nick Diaz vs 9. Martin Kampmann

4. Jake Ellenberger vs 5. Josh Koscheck

3. Jon Fitch vs 11. Rick Story

2. Carlos Condit vs 7. Rory MacDonald

1. Nick Diaz vs 9. Martin Kampmann

A fun fight between two veterans of the sport, Diaz will have much more trouble with Kampmann than most fans realize.

Kampmann has the game to make any fight a close one, but he won’t be able to pull off a decision this time as Diaz earns a late stoppage victory.

4. Jake Ellenberger vs 5. Josh Koscheck

The best fight in the second round is a fight that features two outstanding wrestlers with a ton of power in their hands.

Sounds like a recipe for a Fight of the Night.

The two are about as even as it can get, but Ellenberger has a bit more power and Koscheck has been knocked out by punches before, so “The Juggernaut” gets the win.

3. Jon Fitch vs 11. Rick Story

A fight between two top wrestlers can sometimes turn into a slugfest, but this one features Jon Fitch, who may be the best in the world at making his game plan work.

Fitch will eventually get the fight to the mat and grind out Story like he has so many others and take an easy decision on the judges scorecards.

2. Carlos Condit vs 7. Rory MacDonald

Another rematch, Carlos Condit came back from two rounds down to defeat MacDonald with just a few ticks left on the clock back at UFC 115.

This is a ridiculously entertaining fight to see again, and it will likely go the same way as the first, but with one major difference: MacDonald won’t get caught this time.

MacDonald wins a decision and keeps on moving up the welterweight ladder.

Round 3 Matchups

1. Nick Diaz vs 4. Jake Ellenberger

3. Jon Fitch vs 7. Rory MacDonald

1. Nick Diaz vs 4. Jake Ellenberger

Ellenberger has talked quite a bit of trash on Diaz over the last month, which makes this fight even more fun than it already is.

Stylistically, this is a nightmare matchup for Diaz. A strong wrestler who can hold his own on the feet, and I think Ellenberger survives long enough standing to take Diaz to the mat and eke out a decision.

3. Jon Fitch vs 7. Rory MacDonald

The story book run for MacDonald is finally coming to an end, as Fitch will do what he always does and grind out yet another victory.

Expect MacDonald to make it interesting throughout the fight, but he just won’t have enough to take out the AKA team member.

Final Round: 3. Jon Fitch vs 4. Jake Ellenberger

As much as most of you probably don’t want Fitch to win this tournament, it just had to happen.

Ellenberger is a great fighter and could potentially knock Fitch out before the fight hits the ground, but GSP threw everything but the kitchen sink at Fitch and couldn’t put him away.

Fitch grinds out another decision and walks away with the title.