Updated NFL Playoff Picture: Who's In, Who's out If Playoffs Started Today

After Thanksgiving is when the playoff picture really starts to come into form. And between what took place on Thursday and today, the pretenders and contenders are even more obvious.

Take the Bills, for example. Their loss today on the road against the Jets pretty much ended all hopes of a playoff berth. And then there are the Philadelphia Eagles, who totally laid an egg in their last-ditch effort for a spot.

As you know, only six teams in each conference make the playoffs. Each of those 12 teams are listed inside this slideshow: tie-breakers of course are subject to change.

That also means a few teams that are still holding out hope are ultimately going to spend the time after New Year's Day either with their family, playing golf or training for next season. A few of those teams, and the reasons why those teams won't qualify, are also included.  

Green Bay Packers

Current Record: 11-0

Seed: 1st (NFC North Champion)

Remaining Schedule: at NYG, OAK, at KCC, CHI, DET

Obviously the Packers are in line for the NFL's best record and everything that comes with it: a first-round playoffs bye, home-field advantage throughout and TONS of expectations.

The only reason they won't be able to hit cruise control the rest of the season is that tough game at the desperate Giants and the pressure they'll get from division rivals Detroit and Chicago. Nevertheless, their two-game lead over San Francisco for the top seed seems very secure. 

Houston Texans

Current Record: 8-3

Seed: 1st (AFC South Champion)

Remaining Schedule: ATL, at CIN, CAR, at IND, TEN

This is where things get a bit complicated and somewhat annoying.

Technically, the Texans lose the tiebreaker with Baltimore because they lost to the Ravens in Week 6. But if the season were to end now with both teams having the same 8-3 record, that wouldn't mean squat.

Why? Because the Texans own a tiebreaker over similarly 8-3 New England, who owns a tiebreaker over the Ravens.

Hopefully that's not how things are resolved around 7 p.m. EST on January 1, but who knows.

San Francisco 49ers

Current Record: 9-2

Seed: 2nd (NFC West Champion)

Remaining Schedule: STL, at ARI, PIT, at SEA, at STL

The 49ers have the NFC West just about locked up: they have a five-game lead with five games to play. 

A more interesting issue is whether or not they can actually catch up to the Packers and earn the top seed in the NFC. As easy as the remainder of the schedule is (only Pittsburgh should be a challenge) they most likely need luck in addition to wins to clinch home field.

As for the playoff bye, the four remaining NFC West games on the schedule should lock that up. 

New England Patriots

Current Record: 8-3

Seed: 2nd (AFC East Champion)

Remaining Schedule: IND, at WASH, at DEN, MIA, BUF

Given how complicated it could be, the arrangement of the top two teams in the AFC (or at least the top three division winners) is fairly simple.

New England takes a backseat to Houston because the Texans have an edge in conference winning percentage....of course it's mere percentage points because the Pats have played eight AFC games, the Texans nine. 

But again, in some ways, the Ravens really get the short end of that deal.....

New Orleans Saints

Current Record: 7-3

Seed: 3rd (NFC South Champion)

Remaining Schedule: NYG, DET, at TEN, at MIN, ATL, CAR

The Saints offense is potent enough and the defense just barely stout enough to survive a shootout Monday night with the Giants.

But even if they don't, because they are a leg up on the Falcons right now and finish up with a should win at home against Carolina, I see them earning the division title and edging out the NFC East winner, especially if they should be the Giants. 

Baltimore Ravens

Current Record: 8-3

Seed: 3rd (AFC North Champion)

Remaining Schedule: at CLE, IND, at SDG, CLE, at CIN

Too bad for the Ravens: they own a head-to-head tiebreaker with Houston, but if the season were to end today and they shared the conference's top record with the Texans and Pats, they'd get shut out of both home field and a first-round bye. 

Still, both Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh would at least have to be pleased to finally have a playoff game at home in M&T Bank Stadium.

Again, that could change a great deal down the stretch.  

Dallas Cowboys

Current Record: 7-4 

Seed: 4th (NFC East Champion)

Remaining Schedule: at ARI, NYG, at TBB, PHI, at NYG

Clearly everything in the NFC East is going to depend upon the outcome of those two Giants vs. Cowboys showdowns in December and January, so declaring a division winner right now is relatively pointless.

Still, since the Giants trail Dallas by one game right now, are slumping and have an absolutely brutal schedule remaining, it's not a stretch to think that Dallas—even with a split against the Giants—will take the division crown. 

Oakland Raiders

Current Record: 7-4 

Seed: 4th (AFC West Champion)

Remaining Schedule: at MIA, at GBP, DET, at KCC, SDG

It wasn't a terribly impressive win today in the Black Hole; the Bears were without their starting quarterback and turned the ball over three times in the first half. But a win is a win is a win, and they pushed ahead of Chicago to maintain their lead in the AFC West.

Still, although they would have a spot in the postseason (and a home playoff game) should the season end today, that playoff berth seems far less secure than it did a few weeks ago when the Broncos weren't charging so hard.

Chicago Bears

Current Record: 

Seed: 5th (Wild Card)

Remaining Schedule: KCC, at DEN, SEA, at GBP, at MIN

Sure the Bears would like to have won today in Oakland, but as far as losses go, this one isn't that bad. 

Part of that is due to the fact that they had Caleb Hanie making his first start for Jay Cutler, but if you're going to lose a game, it's far better for it to be an inter-conference game. 

In terms of pure tiebreaker procedures, the Bears would knock out the Lions because of a better record in common games. And because they toppled the Falcons back in Week 1, they'd earn the fifth seed over Atlanta. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Current Record: 8-3

Seed: 5th (Wild Card)

Remaining Schedule: CIN, CLE, at SFO, STL, at CLE

While Pittsburgh was terribly lucky to survive tonight in Arrowhead and keep pace with the Ravens, Baltimore still has the tiebreaker advantage having won both of their regular-season matchups. So the best the Steelers can do for now is a wild card.

But because they have a tiebreaker (again, as of right now) with another AFC North rival, the Bengals, they at least earn the No. 5 seed instead of the No. 6 seed. That's not much of a consolation prize, however, especially since they are going to have to defeat Cincinnati next Sunday, just to hang on to that fifth seed.

Atlanta Falcons

Current Record: 7-4

Seed: 6th (Wild Card)

Remaining Schedule: at HOU, at CAR, JAX, at NOS, TBB

Although the Bears, Falcons and Lions all share a 7-4 record at this point, tie-breaking procedures would be needed to determine the NFC's wild-card teams.

There's something of a round-robin feel to that issue with the Bears holding an edge over Atlanta and Atlanta holding the edge over Detroit in head-to-head matchups.

But in the end, the Bears would edge out the Lions because of their records in common games and they would also earn a higher seed than Atlanta because they bested them in Week 1.

Still, at least the Falcons get in here.  

Cincinnati Bengals

Current Record: 7-4

Seed: 6th (Wild Card)

Remaining Schedule: at PIT, HOU, at STL, ARI, BAL

The Bengals' recent win helped them maintain their one-game lead in the wild-card race over teams like the Jets, Tennessee and the surprising Broncos. If the season ended right now, they'd be in as the sixth seed, free from any tie-breaking nonsense. 

They'll have a chance next Sunday to improve their chances with a win in Pittsburgh. Still, even if they do win they'll only earn a split and face two really tough games against Houston and Baltimore. 

Detroit Lions

Current Record: 7-4

Seed: No Playoffs

Remaining Schedule: at NOS, MIN, at OAK, SDG, at GBP

Tough luck for the Lions, who wouldn't qualify for the playoffs if the season were to end today. Losing the rematch with Chicago back in Week 10 really did their season in because had they won that one, the "common games" tiebreaker wouldn't matter. As things stand right now, it does. 

Even worse news—well, other than the likely loss of Ndamukong Suh for two weeks—they have a brutal schedule the rest of the way, so don't be surprised to see the tiebreakers not even matter come New Year's Day.  

New York Jets

Current Record: 6-5

Seed: No Playoffs

Remaining Schedule: at WAS, KCC, at PHI, NYG, at MIA

Beating the Bills today was absolutely huge for the Jets' playoff hopes. Still,if the season ended today, they'd be on the outside looking in.

They trail the Bengals by a full game in the wild-card race and Pittsburgh by two. 

They are by no means out of it, but even with the three relatively easy games remaining on the schedule (Washington, Kansas City and Miami) they probably have to win out just to pull even with either of the two AFC North clubs. And then tiebreakers could still keep the Jets out.

Either way, it seems like Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez will have to wait at least another year to host that first career playoff game. 

New York Giants

Current Record: 6-4

Seed: No Playoffs

Remaining Schedule: at NOS, GBP at DAL, WAS, at NYJ, DAL

The good news for the Giants—and they need some given their losing skid and the ridiculously tough schedule going forward—is that no matter what happens tomorrow night, they own at least a two-game edge over the Eagles. 

But given the three-way quagmire with Detroit, Chicago and Atlanta, the Giants best shot at a playoff berth would be winning the NFC East. They can still do that since they have two games left with division-leading Dallas. Their chances will be much greater if Eli Manning can pull off a W in the Superdome tomorrow night.

Essentially, everything about this slide deserves an asterisk, with everything being in flux until sometime near midnight EST tomorrow.  

Tennessee Titans

Current Record: 6-5

Seed: No Playoffs

Remaining Schedule: at BUF, NOS, at IND, JAX, at HOU

Much like the Jets, the Titans' victory today was enormous: it keeps them alive and tied with the Jets and Broncos in terms of overall record. But Tennessee currently trails both New York and Denver in the overall playoff picture because of the strength-of-schedule. 

Still, looking at the two schedules side-by-side, you'd have to think that Tennessee has a bit of the upper hand. While the Jets have tough games against desperate teams in the Giants and Eagles, the Titans get the Saints at home and might be playing a Houston team that has nothing to play for. 

Denver Broncos

Current Record: 6-5

Seed: No Playoffs

Remaining Schedule: at MIN, CHI, NEP, at BUF, KCC

Each of the "on-the-outside-looking-in" teams listed already—Tennessee, Detroit, the Jets, the Giants—would basically be looked at as chokers should they miss out on the postseason. At one point they had a great record and have tumbled in recent weeks.

Not the Broncos, who were near laughing-stock proportions a month ago, yet have won four straight.

They'd miss the playoffs if the season were to end today, being shut out of both the wild card and the AFC West crown. But for them to be alive at this point—and not because of any deficiencies in the division like the NFC West saw last year—is pretty remarkable. 

Although it's probably not much of a consolation prize, despite missing out on a playoff berth, if the season ended today, they'd technically finish higher than both the Jets and the Titans.