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Game Preview: Ohio State at Michigan
David ThurmanNov 25, 2011
Dave Thurman (12:36 pm)
The Ohio State Buckeyes head north to Ann Arbor carrying a seven game win streak in "The Game", their longest in the history of this intense rivalry. However they are also coming off two straight losses to Purdue and Penn State in which they appeared lackadaisical, unprepared and poorly coached. On the other hand, the 9-2 Wolverines are fresh off a 45-17 thrashing of Nebraska, and are fielding their best team in five years. With one team playing their worst football of the year, and the other playing their best, it would seem a foregone conclusion that Michigan will prevail at home. But this is a rivalry game when anything can happen.
Adding to the drama is the fact that every major media outlet is reporting that Luke Fickell is coaching his last game at Ohio State, at least as a head coach, with Urban Meyer about to be announced as the new top man in Columbus. One wonders how the players and coaching staff are dealing with this distraction, and if some have simply given up. As if OSU needed anything more going against them consider that Michigan is 7-0 at home this season while the Buckeyes are 1-3 on the road. It is an uphill battle for the young visitors to say the least.
When Michigan has the ball:
Everything starts with junior quarterback Denard Robinson and his shifty speed. Although first year coach Brady Hoke has tried to make Robinson a bit more of a pocket presence and hasn't run him as often as last year, Denard still does his greatest damage with his legs (183, 993, 14). He is very difficult to get an angle on, which could present huge problems for a Silver Bullet defense that has struggled to be in position to tackle all year. Robinson has really not improved as a passer (1889 yds, 53.1%, 15 tds, 14 int) and is prone to turnovers. Due to his reckless style and small stature, he has also been susceptible to injuries in his career, and if he is hurt, UM will turn to sophomore Devin Gardner, who is talented but has yet to put it all together. If Robinson runs wild, which seems highly possible, it will be a long day for the Buckeyes.
The Ohio State Buckeyes head north to Ann Arbor carrying a seven game win streak in "The Game", their longest in the history of this intense rivalry. However they are also coming off two straight losses to Purdue and Penn State in which they appeared lackadaisical, unprepared and poorly coached. On the other hand, the 9-2 Wolverines are fresh off a 45-17 thrashing of Nebraska, and are fielding their best team in five years. With one team playing their worst football of the year, and the other playing their best, it would seem a foregone conclusion that Michigan will prevail at home. But this is a rivalry game when anything can happen.
Adding to the drama is the fact that every major media outlet is reporting that Luke Fickell is coaching his last game at Ohio State, at least as a head coach, with Urban Meyer about to be announced as the new top man in Columbus. One wonders how the players and coaching staff are dealing with this distraction, and if some have simply given up. As if OSU needed anything more going against them consider that Michigan is 7-0 at home this season while the Buckeyes are 1-3 on the road. It is an uphill battle for the young visitors to say the least.
When Michigan has the ball:
Everything starts with junior quarterback Denard Robinson and his shifty speed. Although first year coach Brady Hoke has tried to make Robinson a bit more of a pocket presence and hasn't run him as often as last year, Denard still does his greatest damage with his legs (183, 993, 14). He is very difficult to get an angle on, which could present huge problems for a Silver Bullet defense that has struggled to be in position to tackle all year. Robinson has really not improved as a passer (1889 yds, 53.1%, 15 tds, 14 int) and is prone to turnovers. Due to his reckless style and small stature, he has also been susceptible to injuries in his career, and if he is hurt, UM will turn to sophomore Devin Gardner, who is talented but has yet to put it all together. If Robinson runs wild, which seems highly possible, it will be a long day for the Buckeyes.
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Unlike last season, Michigan's running game does not rely solely on Robinson. Ohio native Fitzgerald Toussaint has really come on in 2011, rushing for 811 yards at 5.7 per carry, and is ably backed up by tiny Vincent Smith who is a threat not only as a runner but a pass receiver out of the backfield. While neither runner will overpower the defense, they are quick and make good cuts, which would seem to be a serious concern for a poor tackling team. Overall UM rushed for 232 yards per game at 5.3 a pop, which are very healthy numbers.
The Wolverines feature a nice trio of receivers in Junior Hemmingway, Roy Roundtree, and Jeremy Gallon. None have great statistics, though, with Hemmingway leading the pack with 29 catches for 554 yards. Gallon has the most touchdowns of the group with three. Another Ohio native, tight end Kevin Koger, also has three touchdowns and is a nice player but isn't employed a great deal in the offense. Michigan throws enough to keep defenses honest, but clearly is a run-first team.
When a team averages 421.1 yards and 33.6 points per game, the big guys in the trenches are doing their job. After some very weak Michigan lines the past few seasons, this group is more typical. Senior center David Molk anchors the group, and Ohio native Patrick Omameh is also a good one, starting at right guard, though he has also played tackle in the past. This may not be a great Michigan line but it is an upgrade over the recent past.
While the offense has not put up incredible numbers, they are very good, and are coming off their best performance of the year. If Ohio State is to have a chance they will have to tackle better than in the past few weeks. The two teams that defeated the Wolverines (Michigan State and Iowa) played physical football, so hopefully the Silver Bullets will be ready to strap on their helmets and get after it on this afternoon.
The Wolverines feature a nice trio of receivers in Junior Hemmingway, Roy Roundtree, and Jeremy Gallon. None have great statistics, though, with Hemmingway leading the pack with 29 catches for 554 yards. Gallon has the most touchdowns of the group with three. Another Ohio native, tight end Kevin Koger, also has three touchdowns and is a nice player but isn't employed a great deal in the offense. Michigan throws enough to keep defenses honest, but clearly is a run-first team.
When a team averages 421.1 yards and 33.6 points per game, the big guys in the trenches are doing their job. After some very weak Michigan lines the past few seasons, this group is more typical. Senior center David Molk anchors the group, and Ohio native Patrick Omameh is also a good one, starting at right guard, though he has also played tackle in the past. This may not be a great Michigan line but it is an upgrade over the recent past.
While the offense has not put up incredible numbers, they are very good, and are coming off their best performance of the year. If Ohio State is to have a chance they will have to tackle better than in the past few weeks. The two teams that defeated the Wolverines (Michigan State and Iowa) played physical football, so hopefully the Silver Bullets will be ready to strap on their helmets and get after it on this afternoon.
When Ohio State has the ball:
A struggling offense needs something to give them a boost, as they continue to look for a true identity. After the return of tackle Mike Adams and running back Boom Herron there was some new energy, but opponents have adjusted, and the Buckeyes are back grasping at straws. It would seem that some of the seniors, especially on the offensive line, are merely playing out the string, and the coaching staff appears to be mailing it in of late as well. One can only hope that "The Game" will electrify all of them with new energy and passion.
Most of Michigan's improvement this year has been on the defensive side of the ball, as they are no longer a sieve, allowing teams to move up and down the field freely. After surrendering 451 yards and 35.2 points per game in 2010, they are now limiting opponents to 312.6 and 15.6 per game. Who says coaching doesn't make a big difference?
Up front the Wolverines are big and experienced, led by tackle Mike Martin (48 tackles, 3 sacks). Ends Craig Roh and Ryan Van Bergen have combined for 8.5 sacks and are solid. Teams have only run for 128.4 yards per game against this crew so they have done their job most of the time.
The linebackers are not a highly decorated group but have been pretty decent. The most active of this unit is middle backer Kenny Demens who has 78 tackles, with 4.5 for loss and 2.5 sacks. The young outside linebackers have trouble getting off blocks at times, and in that regard, resemble their opposite numbers at Ohio State.
Possibly the biggest improvement in 2011 has come from the secondary, which was absolutely torched last year. They still aren't a great unit, but they have been solid, and feature lots of experience in senior Troy Woolfolk and juniors JT Floyd and Jordan Kovacs. Floyd is the best of the group in coverage while Kovacs leads this unit with 60 tackles, including 6 for loss.
To have success against Michigan's improved defense the Buckeyes will have to show more heart as well as more precision in their blocking. There is no doubt that Braxton Miller, Boom Herron, and the other backs are talented and capable. But it all starts up front. The return last week of DeVier Posey gave Ohio State a receiver who can get open and hold onto the ball, so it would be wise to throw his way numerous times. Hopefully one of the younger receivers will come to the forefront at well. Jordan Hall has been rediscovered out of the backfield of late, and it would be nice to see a few passes to him and to tight end Jake Stoneburner, but I have a better chance of getting a new Corvette under the Christmas tree this year!
UM's special teams are about as average as you get, so it would be great to see Ohio State win this battle, as they should. But it rivalry games weird things happen, and the Wolverines do have enough speed in the return game to make a big play.
Dave's Wildcards:
-Bizarre Bounces. In rivalry games strange, almost eerie things have been known to occur, which go beyond statistics and analysis. Such was the case in 1996 when star corner Shawn Springs slipped and allowed a long touchdown. Emotions are a huge part of this, and nobody knows what to expect from Ohio State at this point. Will they come out with a new hunger and determination or will they limp into Ann Arbor with their tail between their legs? Conversely, will Michigan have their old swagger or will they still play like the team that has lost nine out of the last ten in this series? Nobody knows the answers to these questions, but they make for interesting viewing.
-Posey's playmaking. Last week DeVier came to play and should have been an even bigger part of the offense. In his final regular season game, if he can make a huge play and take one to the house, it might electrify the team. He has it in him, if Bollman dials him up, and if Braxton can deliver.
-Sideline stunts. In the past coaches in this contest have been known to have some ploys and tricks up their sleeves, or some formations and plays that have been saved for "The Game." While games aren't won by deception alone, it can make a difference in a close contest. Overall, two coaches new to this rivalry will be under the spotlight, and the one who has better prepared his team will likely come out victorious.
Score Prediction:
Dave: UM 31 - OSU 17
Drew: OSU 28 - UM 27
A struggling offense needs something to give them a boost, as they continue to look for a true identity. After the return of tackle Mike Adams and running back Boom Herron there was some new energy, but opponents have adjusted, and the Buckeyes are back grasping at straws. It would seem that some of the seniors, especially on the offensive line, are merely playing out the string, and the coaching staff appears to be mailing it in of late as well. One can only hope that "The Game" will electrify all of them with new energy and passion.
Most of Michigan's improvement this year has been on the defensive side of the ball, as they are no longer a sieve, allowing teams to move up and down the field freely. After surrendering 451 yards and 35.2 points per game in 2010, they are now limiting opponents to 312.6 and 15.6 per game. Who says coaching doesn't make a big difference?
Up front the Wolverines are big and experienced, led by tackle Mike Martin (48 tackles, 3 sacks). Ends Craig Roh and Ryan Van Bergen have combined for 8.5 sacks and are solid. Teams have only run for 128.4 yards per game against this crew so they have done their job most of the time.
The linebackers are not a highly decorated group but have been pretty decent. The most active of this unit is middle backer Kenny Demens who has 78 tackles, with 4.5 for loss and 2.5 sacks. The young outside linebackers have trouble getting off blocks at times, and in that regard, resemble their opposite numbers at Ohio State.
Possibly the biggest improvement in 2011 has come from the secondary, which was absolutely torched last year. They still aren't a great unit, but they have been solid, and feature lots of experience in senior Troy Woolfolk and juniors JT Floyd and Jordan Kovacs. Floyd is the best of the group in coverage while Kovacs leads this unit with 60 tackles, including 6 for loss.
To have success against Michigan's improved defense the Buckeyes will have to show more heart as well as more precision in their blocking. There is no doubt that Braxton Miller, Boom Herron, and the other backs are talented and capable. But it all starts up front. The return last week of DeVier Posey gave Ohio State a receiver who can get open and hold onto the ball, so it would be wise to throw his way numerous times. Hopefully one of the younger receivers will come to the forefront at well. Jordan Hall has been rediscovered out of the backfield of late, and it would be nice to see a few passes to him and to tight end Jake Stoneburner, but I have a better chance of getting a new Corvette under the Christmas tree this year!
UM's special teams are about as average as you get, so it would be great to see Ohio State win this battle, as they should. But it rivalry games weird things happen, and the Wolverines do have enough speed in the return game to make a big play.
Dave's Wildcards:
-Bizarre Bounces. In rivalry games strange, almost eerie things have been known to occur, which go beyond statistics and analysis. Such was the case in 1996 when star corner Shawn Springs slipped and allowed a long touchdown. Emotions are a huge part of this, and nobody knows what to expect from Ohio State at this point. Will they come out with a new hunger and determination or will they limp into Ann Arbor with their tail between their legs? Conversely, will Michigan have their old swagger or will they still play like the team that has lost nine out of the last ten in this series? Nobody knows the answers to these questions, but they make for interesting viewing.
-Posey's playmaking. Last week DeVier came to play and should have been an even bigger part of the offense. In his final regular season game, if he can make a huge play and take one to the house, it might electrify the team. He has it in him, if Bollman dials him up, and if Braxton can deliver.
-Sideline stunts. In the past coaches in this contest have been known to have some ploys and tricks up their sleeves, or some formations and plays that have been saved for "The Game." While games aren't won by deception alone, it can make a difference in a close contest. Overall, two coaches new to this rivalry will be under the spotlight, and the one who has better prepared his team will likely come out victorious.
Score Prediction:
Dave: UM 31 - OSU 17
Drew: OSU 28 - UM 27
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