NFL Week 12 Picks: Predicting Games That Will Be Closer Than You Think

There are three games scheduled for Week 12 that, at first glance, look like they could end decisively in the favor of the winning team. However, with closer examination, it seems more likely that the games will end with close scores.

The Green Bay Packers take on the Detroit Lions in the Lions' yearly Thanksgiving game tomorrow. With two high-powered offenses and so much on the line for both teams—a playoff berth for Detroit and the pride of remaining undefeated through 11 games for Green Bay—it seems that whichever team pulls out the win will do so in stunning fashion.

However, with the Packers struggling on defense and allowing six of their 10 opponents to score 20 or more points, it doesn't seem they'll be able to hold the Lions offense to only a touchdown or two.

While the Lions have a strong defense, they're still susceptible to giving up the big play, as evidenced by their Week 11 49-35 win over the Carolina Panthers.

Neither team will be blown out, assuredly, though one will win. And don't be surprised if it comes via a margin of four or fewer points tomorrow.

Issues on defense will keep Sunday's contest between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles close, regardless of whether it's Michael Vick or Vince Young starting at quarterback for Philadelphia.

While the Patriots appeared improved at defense in their Week 10 rout of the New York Jets, the ragtag group of rookies, undrafted free agents and random castoffs struggled initially against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11.

Though the Patriots managed to also dismantle the Chiefs as they did the Jets, the team allowed significant yardage on the ground and in the air.

Young and Vick are both more experienced quarterbacks and have better weapons to pass to than the Chiefs' Tyler Palko, and that should mean trouble for New England's defense. At the same time, the Eagles don't have a strong defense either, despite the collection of so-called elite players both on the line and in the secondary. To further confound that issue, the Patriots have a very complex passing game that centers around creating confusion and their two tight ends making big plays.

A moderate-scoring shootout seems in order for this game, with both teams keeping things close, in the mid-to-upper 20s in terms of each team's point totals.

Lower-scoring but still close is my prediction for the second meeting between the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers this week.

Too many errors on the San Diego offense, coupled with the Broncos' legitimately tough defense, will keep the Chargers' numbers low, while the Tim Tebow experiment keeps plugging along for Denver's offense, despite it producing little in the way of scores.

It's a formula for a low-scoring close contest between the two teams. I don't think Denver will eke out another last-second win via Tebow's legs and the Chargers will finally stop their five-game slide, but it's not going to be an overwhelming San Diego win, either.